Pacific Forum

⚽️ Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, fellow, was quoted in a Reuters article discussing the construction by of what it claims will be the world's largest stadium, written by Francesco Guarascio.

Tuyen observed, "In a growing country like Vietnam, infrastructure often needs to precede demand."

She also signaled that gone underutilized and delays in returns on can pose risks.

🔗 Read the full article here: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnams-vingroup-forges-ahead-with-worlds-largest-stadium-despite-demand-doubts-2026-06-11/

🔴 Happening now: Honolulu International Forum ( )

Strengthening Maritime Infrastructure for the Future
Oceans are no longer just pathways for commerce — they are critical infrastructure underpinning global trade, security, and energy flows.

In an era defined by renewed great power competition and rapid technological change, maritime dominance is being redefined in real time. For Hawai'i, this shift is not abstract — it sits at the center of the Indo-Pacific's operational and economic future.

As maritime security dynamics evolve, global trade routes face increasing pressure, and energy demand continues to rise, the gap between strategic necessity and private market investment in key U.S. maritime sectors is becoming more pronounced.

Today's conversation explores what it will take to modernize maritime capabilities and infrastructure — locally and nationally — to ensure resilience, competitiveness, and security in the decades ahead.

We are honored to welcome Erik Bethel, Co-Founder & Managing Partner of Mare Liberum, a venture capital firm investing at the intersection of critical technologies and the maritime domain.

A seasoned global finance professional, Mr. Bethel was nominated by the President and unanimously confirmed by the Senate to serve as U.S. Executive Director at the World Bank, where he participated in the analysis and deployment of more than $100 billion in development financing. He was later nominated to serve as U.S. Ambassador to Panama.

Today's HIF is moderated by our Executive Director & Head of National Security and Defense, Kimberly Lehn.

🎟️ Interested in joining future sessions? Become a HIF member → https://pacforum.org/honolulu-international-forum/

🔔 New Pacific Forum Publication — The Pilot #37

has released #37 – Three schools of Russian thought amid growing asymmetry with China: Part 1 by Gilbert Rozman, Emeritus Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. The piece provides a overview and analysis of the three schools of thought prevailing in the and since 1976: the hardliners, the pro-West camp, and the balancers.

📖 Review our and read the article: https://pacforum.org/publications/the-pilot-37-three-schools-of-russian-thought-amid-growing-asymmetry-with-china-part-1/

🇵🇭 Pilot #34, "Pax Silica for Pax Filipina: Allied-scale in action," written by Chief Research and Development Officer Akhil Ramesh and Philippine Technology Policy Fellow Florence Principe Gamboa, was highlighted in a Daily Guardian piece discussing the budding semiconductor industry in the Philippines, written by Francis Allan L. Angelo.

Angelo stated that the piece "makes a case that deserves to be read in Malacanang, in Congress, and frankly, in every regional chamber of commerce from Iloilo to Cagayan de Oro."

He added that in his view, the gains of this industry must spread beyond to the rest of the Philippines.

🔗 Read Pilot #34 on our website, and read the Daily Guardian article here:

The chip is on the table. Now what? For decades, the Philippines punched below its economic weight, exporting workers instead of products, talents instead of technologies. The Pax Silica initiativ

Upcoming Honolulu International Forum ( ): Ukraine and the New Way of War

The Russia-Ukraine war is the first since the fall of the Soviet Union in which two major nuclear powers have found themselves on opposing sides of a high-intensity conflict — even if only indirectly. As the war continues, it offers an essential opportunity to reflect on U.S. concepts of deterrence, escalation, and warfighting.

👉 What strategic lessons should the United States and its allies and partners draw as they prepare for potential conflicts with nuclear-armed adversaries?

We are honored to welcome John Kawika Warden, Senior Deterrence Analyst at the Center for Global Security Research (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) and affiliate of the Center for Nuclear Security Policy at MIT's Security Studies Program.

Warden's expertise spans U.S. defense strategy and foreign policy, nuclear weapons and deterrence, escalation and arms control, and technology and the future of warfare. His distinguished career includes service as Director for Strategic Stability and Arms Control at the National Security Council, on the professional staff of the House Armed Services Committee, as a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses, as a Senior Policy Analyst at SAIC, and as a Senior Fellow at Pacific Forum.

He holds an M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University and a B.A. from Northwestern University.

🎟️ Two ways to join us:
🔹 Become a HIF member to access this session and our full slate of upcoming forums → https://pacforum.org/honolulu-international-forum/
🔹 Attend this session only — email us to register: [email protected]

"The future of warfare will not be decided solely by who has the most advanced systems, but by who can afford to lose them, replace them, and scale them faster than their adversary."

In a new piece for the National Security Journal, Pacific Forum's President & CEO David Santoro and Executive Director & Head of National Security and Defense Kimberly Lehn make a compelling case for precise mass — the marriage of sophisticated AI with low-cost, expendable volume — as the cornerstone of US and allied deterrence in an increasingly contested security environment.

Drawing on lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War and the recent Iran War, the authors unpack:
🔹 Why the twentieth-century "exquisite platform" doctrine is under unprecedented strain

🔹 How China's military-civil fusion strategy has built an "industrial leviathan" producing autonomous systems at 10–100x lower cost than US interceptors

🔹 Where the United States retains a decisive edge — frontier AI, edge autonomy, and software-defined diffusion

🔹 A four-pillar roadmap to win the attrition race: industrializing the autonomy stack, inverting the cost-per-kill ratio, "fail-fast" procurement, and reshoring critical supply chains

📖 Read the full article in the National Security Journal →

The Attrition Advantage: How the United States Can Win Through Precise Mass The future of warfare will not be decided solely by who has the most advanced systems, but by who can afford to lose them, replace them, and scale them faster than their adversary. For decades, the United States followed a twentieth-century playbook built around “exquisite” platforms—billion-d...

⚓️ Christian Cerne, research intern, published a piece in The MOC at the Center for Maritime Strategy on the need for a division of labor among allies and particularly and as the tries to mitigate its challenges.

Cerne advocated for a system that functions based on allies' comparative advantages—notably Japanese prowess and Korean strengths in and production.

"The objective," he asserted, "should not be to outsource America's shipbuilding problem. It should be to reduce the region's disproportionate dependence on an overstretched U.S. shipbuilding system by building a more durable allied production base."

📖 Read the article:

Allied Shipbuilding Needs a Clear Division of Labor - Center for Maritime Strategy The United States is trying to rebuild maritime power at a moment when its shipbuilding base is under severe strain. A recent executive order now treats shipbuilding, repair, workforce development, and maritime logistics as national security priorities. As Washington looks to allied shipyards for he...

🇯🇵 Brad Glosserman, Director of Research & Senior Advisor, published a piece in The Japan Times offering his take on the proclaimed "golden age" of US-Japan relations.

Glosserman observed that there is a balancing act must maintain as it tries, despite messages from that can be quite erratic, to keep strengthening ties while also facing domestic challenges as Prime Minister faces increased skepticism.

He noted that recent positive steps in Japanese defense policy, such as bolstering connections with allies and modernizing defense capabilities, "cannot wholly compensate for doubts about U.S. credibility and commitment, but they strengthen the framework for truly integrated deterrence when a more traditionally-minded U.S. administration emerges."

🔗 Read the full article here:

A ‘Golden Age’ for Japan-U.S. relations? Not quite. Calls for increased defense spending are one thing; doubts about America's commitment to the security alliance are another.

New Pacific Forum Publication – The Pilot #36

has released #36 – From Delhi's Watchtower: The Trump-Xi summit and India's enduring vigilance by Sriparna Pathak, Professor of China Studies and founding Director of the Centre for Northeast Asian Studies at O.P. Jindal Global University. In the wake of the recent Trump-Xi summit, this piece explores the ramifications of an evolving Sino-American relationship on strategic alignment.

Review our and read the full article here: https://pacforum.org/publications/the-pilot36-from-delhis-watchtower-the-trump-xi-summit-and-indias-enduring-vigilance/

🌐 Moses Sakai, Resident Vasey fellow, published a piece today in the Devpolicy Blog at Australian National University on growing ties between and and how those can benefit countries (PICs).

Sakai noted that Canberra and Tokyo's new Joint Declaration on Economic Security Cooperation includes a commitment to assist with capacity-building initiatives, which should be regarded by island nations with optimism.

While acknowledging that PICs are too small to hold decisive sway in politics, he advised that "external interests that act in good faith to preserve, not erode, national sovereignty should be welcomed."

📖 Read the article:

Pacific islands: how to gain from Australia-Japan ties - Devpolicy Blog from the Development Policy Centre How Pacific island countries can gain from deeper Australia-Japan security and development ties amid increasing China-US rivalry.