02/06/2016
Benefits of Using Bond notes and Coins
After a careful study of the press statement by
the Governor Dr JP Mangudya on the 4th of
May 2016, Measures To Deal With Cash
Shortages Whilst Simultaneously Stabilising and
Stimulating The Economy. I can confirm and
conclude that this a good step in the right
direction. Many people didn't read the press
statement but have criticised it.
A financial analyst with The Source
interrogated the concept i hope this will ease
some of your fears.
What caused the cash shortages in the first
place?
The cash shortages are a combination of
various factors. Zimbabwe’s trade deficit, the
gap between its exports and imports, has
widened from an average $400 million 10
years ago to $2,5 billion at the end of 2015.
Zimbabwe imports more than it exports, which
means there is more money leaving the
country than money coming in. With industry
collapsing, more dollars are being used to
import goods at a time when the country’s
primary exports — commodities — have seen a
decline in prices since 2013.
Another factor in the cash shortages is the
strength of the US dollar against emerging
market currencies such as the Rand. Some
reports say, over the past year, the US dollar
has gained at the fastest rate in 40 years. This
means there is huge demand for the US dollar,
which is seen worldwide as a reserve currency.
Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said on
Wednesday: “For as long as we are using a
currency which is appreciating when we have
neighbours that have currencies which are
depreciating, we become a mopping house.
People come to mop up our US dollars. Any US
dollars we bring, it will still vanish (as) people
want USD as a store of value.”
Added to this mix is weak confidence in the
banks, which has seen many businesses,
particularly small to medium enterprises and
the informal sector, avoiding depositing their
money into banks. The central bank estimates
that between $3 billion and $7 billion is
circulating in the informal sector.
Illicit outflows also contribute significantly to
the cash crunch, according to the central
bank. As much as $1.8 billion in the form of
export sale proceeds and inflated management
fees as well as payments for technical and
professional services was funneled out of the
country in 2015, according to the RBZ.
How exactly do these bond coins and notes get
their value?
Every currency gets its value from a particular
source. This may be gold or currency reserves.
In the case of bond coins and notes, their
value comes from a bond facility from the
Afreximbank. In 2014, Afreximbank put up a
$50 million bond, a form of a loan, for bond
coins introduced to ease the shortage of
change in the economy. The planned bond
notes are backed by a new $200 million bond,
also from Afreximbank. The bond coins and
bond notes derive their name from the fact
that they are guaranteed by a bond facility.
What is to stop the RBZ from printing more
than that $200 million?
Under the facility, which is monitored by
Afreximbank, the RBZ cannot produce more
notes or coins than what is guaranteed by the
bond from Afreximbank. As at the end of
December, RBZ had minted bond coins worth
$14 million, and expected to produce a further
$6 million at the start of 2016, according to
the 2016 budget statement.
Why not just release that $200 million into the
market instead of bond notes?
If RBZ does that, that money would still leave
the country. The whole idea of the bond notes
is to make sure that cash stays in Zimbabwe.
However, the RBZ is unlikely to release notes
worth the equivalent of the whole $200 million
at the same time, but will more likely phase-in
the notes depending on demand.
When will the notes start circulating?
RBZ governor John Mangudya told reporters
the notes would be produced “after two
months.” They were still at design stage, he
said.
Can I use it outside the country?
No. Bond notes only work in Zimbabwe. The
plan is to make sure the cash stays in
Zimbabwe.
So how does RBZ plan to solve the currency
crunch?
RBZ’s plan evolves around the following:
limiting daily withdrawals, increasing the use
of the Rand, giving priority of US dollar
spending to key areas like fuel and machinery,
converting export receipts into rand and other
currencies, and increasing usage of electronic
and plastic money.
RBZ says Rand use was down to five percent on
the market, from 49 percent when the
multicurrency system started in 2009. Now,
for every dollar that comes into Zimbabwe
from exports, 40 cents will be converted into
rand and 10 cents into Euro.
So if I send my mother money from here in
the UK, will she get part of it in Rand?
According to the RBZ, remittances and NGO
funds will not be converted to Rand.
What are the withdrawal limits?
You can now withdraw $1,000, 1,000 Euros
and R20,000 per day. In addition to this, you
are now only allowed to take similar maximum
amounts out of the country at a time.
Is this the return of the Zimbabwe dollar?
That is a fear shared by many, given that
Zimbabwe is now effectively printing its own
money. According to RBZ, however, bond
coins and notes can only operate under the
multi-currency regime.
RBZ governor Mangudya also told media on
Wednesday he has no plans to introduce a
local currency, at least not until “the
fundamentals are right.” With production low
and no forex reserves, the local unit would
only face the fate of the Zimdollar, which
collapsed and lost all value.
In 2015, the Zimdollar was “demonetised”, or
taken completely out of circulation. This does
not mean a local currency will not be
reintroduced one day, but RBZ says it may
“take years to return”. In history, no country
that has adopted the US dollar as its main
currency has ever reverted to its own
currency.
