Atchison Actuaries

From last year

When the international trade policy allows foreign trade partners to borrow money from foreign banks and bring in tonnes and tonnes of cheap imports, sell them for cash and repatriate the cash back to their countries, cash shortages will surface. No conspiracy theory, just simple economic reasoning.

What Zimbabwe needs are investors who bring in actual capital (not cheap imports) into the country to invest and generate export quality goods so that liquidity is generated.

The current liquidity crisis is not artificial, it is not temporary, so let us brace ourselves and we
better resort to plastic money.

ACTUARIAL LENSE: The greatest risk of them all

WHENEVER I meet with business executives, I always want to get their opinions on what the top three risks facing their businesses are. The responses I receive are interesting.
For example, those in mining fear a fall in metal prices that can see them not generating enough revenue to break even. Nearly everyone is worried about the liquidity environment and high interest rates that are commonplace in the economy. These are very valid concerns of risks being faced by our businesses to which risk management can play a pivotal role in ensuring business continuity.>>>>>>http://bit.ly/1Mef0VY

Dear Citizens

Did you know that contributions to an occupational Pension scheme are tax deductible in Zimbabwe? On average one pays a minimum of 20% of salary, so imagine how much you would have paid over 30 years of service.

For more details on how to join a pension scheme call (04) 770025/7

Global citizens: Diversity

One of the tenets of being part of the global village is to be able to embrace diversity i.e. to recognise and value that others are different, genuinely different and to be okay with it.

Differences arise in religion, political beliefs, equality, lifestyle as you move across the globe. Stereotypes are seriously challenged, sometimes in uncomfortable ways to you. For example if you were born and bred in Christian family, some views are a no brainer (automatic yes or no). This is called bigotry, it has very little latitude in the global. So what should one do, as indeed a lot of actuarial personnel will go around the globe searching for jobs:

1. Stay informed: You can never respect something you do not know. Information is a click away, stay informed. Follow renowned bloggers/journalists on social media like Fareed Zakaria.
2. Be sure about your position on key issues and be comfortable with your position, do not apologise for what you believe or what you value. From such a strong point, you can draw in the views of others without feeling insecure and defensive
3. Understand the big picture - the global world has dealt (is still dealing) with all forms of marginalisation and exclusion as well, so you are not the only one having to understand the other person's viewpoint. You don't have to agree with everything but don't take the judgeship seat.
4. Avoid being sucked into conversations about controversial issues. They say "do not discuss politics or religion over dinner', go figure.

The global theme is "to create a fairer society" for everyone, for people from all parts of the world including immigrants (as some of you will be in future).

One last thing is that as you draw in others, and as others draw your views in, be ready to be asked some uncomfortable questions. In the spirit of Ubuntu (I am because you are), all should be well and lead to enlightened individuals.

So, to start off your journey to valuing diversity, write down the list of things you know are stereotyped in your life and challenge yourself on how you can address such limited thinking.

Good weekend everyone.

Next week we talk about health research

Interesting philosophy

I hope you were all refreshed by our coverage of how we all live in a global village, events happening 20,000 km away can also affect us, directly.

To wrap up the topi, tomorrow and Friday we will talk about the cultural and religious side of being a global citizen.

Will the trends in culture also come to Zim? Who knows.

Have a good day

Any of you clever tigers ever wonder what women carry in their handbags?

I actually think they carry old newspapers. You?

Global citizens: Trading currencies

Many actuaries have the skills required to develop a currency trading strategy, either from a profit-making point of view or from a hedging point of of view. Many young and skilled professionals across the globe study global events and take positions on certain currencies either as direct currency traders or as investors.

Basically, imagine (after making many assumptions about many things) investing $100 when $1 = R12, that's R1,200. if you project that in 6 months the $/R exchange rate will be say 8, and then you earn 4% effective for the 6 months that you invested your R1,200. You will have R1,248 after 6 months which will translate to $156, that will be 56% on the dollar.

So, the exchange movement profits/losses can be quite mind boggling (read up on George Sorrows). But please note, the business of currency trade is not for the faint-hearted.

Some clever friends of mine are now focused on developing more of currency hedging strategies for our Zimbabwean environment. strategies will involve pricing of goods and services as well as taking balanced positions in certain currencies. The full theory of it is quite complex and interesting but imagine if you could give this formula to a mining company in Zimbabwe (talk about unemployment), or a even a local bank!.

Since there were no questions posted, we will not spend much time on the tools and techniques used for successful currency trading. All we can say is that there established ways in which you can become a currency trader in a responsible and sustainable manner, as an entrepreneur.

Did you enjoy our global citizens series? Till next time

Global citizens: A stronger dollar and you?

This has been a very interesting segment for us in the office so far, we hope everyone is enlightened.

So, a stronger dollar means:
1. The goods Zimbabweans sell to foreign countries become more expensive
2. Conversely, what we buy from foreign countries becomes cheaper
3. By all accounts the cost of buying goods locally should reduce
4. But cost of production of locally sourced goods will remain the same (except maybe if the cost of energy reduces)
5. International travel, education etc becomes cheaper to us

In simple terms our industrial output becomes less competitive and we will likely witness an influx of cheap imports. Growth of local companies will be slower than expected, if at all. For companies that will re-tooling or investing in capital goods, that will be surely the time to do so (But ever looked at our import bill, all Ex-Jap cars mate).

But to the ordinary person, it will be the reduction in prices (deflation) that will take the trophy, if it happens. But is deflation good? It normally leads to an expectation that prices will continue to fall so spending reduces (why buy everything now when it will be cheaper next month right). The reduced demand could result inn companies actually reducing prices to defend their market share. The deflation spiral can be vicious and has led to stagnation or negative economic growth patterns in other countries. Japan struggled with deflation for about a decade and almost had to literally force people to take credit and spend (worked in the end).

So, if we get into deflation, your prospects of a job will be glum as more companies may be forced to close shop. For those that work, our government will try to beef up their revenue by increasing taxes on the few that will be active; as they have done a few times this year.

So, what does American Policy have to do with you global citizen, ha?! Well, almost everything at this rate :(