19/08/2026
The 13 August 2026 General Elections in Zambia between Hakainde Hichilema (UPND) and Brian Mundubile (NRPUP/Tonse Alliance)gave us a lot to learn ā about politics, the economy, and how Zambians are thinking right now.
Hereās what stands out:
1. Economic numbers ā lived experience
- What happened: Hichilema won with 60.49% vs Mundubileās 37.87%. He campaigned on debt restructuring, lower inflation at 6.5%, and macro stability since 2021.
- The lesson: Investors and analysts called it "continuity". But Mundubileās strong 38% came from tapping into frustration that "improving macroeconomic indicators had made little difference to their daily lives".
Takeaway: People vote with their stomachs. Growth must translate to jobs, food prices, and electricity. Data alone doesnāt win hearts.
2. Opposition unity matters, but division hurts
- Mundubile led the *Tonse Alliance* and NRPUP, and drew big crowds. He got the strongest opposition showing in years.
- But analysts noted "one of the serious weaknesses in the opposition camp is that it is splintered", with candidates from allied parties competing against each other.
- Takeaway: A fragmented opposition can still mobilize, but without coordination at parliamentary level, itās hard to convert momentum into seats. UPND won 136 seats vs NRPUPās 60. ce140237ce65
3. Incumbency + debt recovery gave HH an edge
This was Hichilemaās 7th run. He steered Zambia through default in 2020 and an IMF program.
Investors saw his re-election as "policy continuity", especially on copper and critical minerals.
Takeaway: In a crisis recovery, voters often reward stability ā even if theyāre still struggling. "We hear you" was HHās message on cost of living.
4. Democracy is tested after the vote, not just during it
- The run-up was "largely peaceful" but observers flagged "late legal changes, legal uncertainty, and unequal campaign conditions".
- After voting, there were arrests of 11 people including opposition figures, suspension of vote counting due to violence and stolen ballot papers, and accusations from both sides.
- Takeaway: Elections arenāt just about casting ballots. Trust in ECZ, security forces, and tolerance for dissent determine whether results are accepted. Mundubile called for an independent investigation.
5. Youth + Cost of living will define the next 5 years
Zambia is the continentās 2nd largest copper producer and a focus for US-China competition. But "many Zambians say... they have yet to feel the benefits in their daily lives".
HHās second term promise: "double the size of the economy, create more jobs".
Takeaway: The next mandate will be judged on whether debt recovery turns into jobs, not just bond prices.
In short: Growth Wisdom from 2026
1. Listen beyond the numbers- Macro wins must reach the market and the home.
2. Unity beats noise - Crowds are good. Coordinated candidates are better.
3. Institutions matter- How we handle disputes after voting decides if we stay stable.
4. Hope needs delivery - People gave HH another term for continuity, but they expect tangible change now.
Zambia chose experience over change this time, but with a clear warning: fix the cost of living.
