Centre of Research and Academic Excellence

PRISONER VOTING
One thing we have never paid attention to is the fact that a prisoner today, is not a prisoner forever except for those serving life imprisonment and a free man today isn't a free man forever. So then, of the prisoners registered to vote, where will they vote from if by 12th August they will no longer be in prisons? Of those freemen today who are registered to vote, where will they vote from if on 12th August they'll be in prison?Be escorted by Prison wardens to their registered polling stations? Have we ever imagined of a Presidential pardon on 25th May 2021 of over 2000 prisoners? Where will these vote from, go back to various prisons and vote? If this is not chaos in the making, then what is that?

Many Questions People ask and the Answers we provide

ECONOMICS OF ZERO-RATED VAT ON PETROL AND DIESEL
There is growing debate on the recent announcement by government to zero-rate VAT on petrol and Diesel. Here is a dissection of the subject matter.
WHAT DOES ZERO-RATING MEAN?
Zero rating VAT implies that the VAT rate on a specified commodity is Zero (0%). (Zambia has two VAT rates, 16% and 0%). In literal meaning, there is no VAT charged on the commodity which has been zero rated. In this case and in accordance with SI 125/2020, with effect from 1st January 2021, the price for both Diesel and Petrol will have no VAT in it. This is to say, December 31st Petrol pump price of K17.62/Lt will have to be K15.19/Lt (less K2.43/Lt VAT) by 1st January 2021 while the December 31st Diesel pump price of K15.59/Lt will have to be K13.44/Lt (less K2.15/Lt VAT) by 1st January 2021.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE BUSINESS
Given that fuel is the catalyst for economic activities, this slight reduction in the pump price will enhance economic activities as fuel will become relatively cheaper (the cost of transportation will reduce). However, this benefit may not trickle down if the exchange rate remains highly volatile and may in a way be a sign that the government may just try to cushion the adverse effect of a weak kwacha on petroleum.
REVENUE DRAIN OR STIMULUS?
Zero rating VAT on fuel will result in significant revenue loss. This loss may be compensated for if and only if investment is highly elastic to price of fuel in both short and long run (more tax revenue generated). On the other hand, because businesses are able to claim input VAT, the zero rating will increase the refunds to Oil Marketing Companies who incur VAT on their day-to-day supply of fuel but will have no VAT output to net off against.
CONCLUSION
While we have advocated for stimulus through reduced cost of energy, zero rating petrol and diesel is not the best option. If tax measures were anything to go by, VAT exempt was going to be a much better option. The reduction in the price of fuel and the expected increase in claims by OMCs are likely to bring about revenue drain and if other fundamentals remain poorly managed, consumers and business may not enjoy the expected reduction in the price. The fundamental response to cost of fuel is well managed exchange rate regime and movements towards the futures contracts on oil.

Infrastructure Development vs Socioeconomic Development: Development for Development. There has been growing debate on whether Zambia is developing through infrastructure. A simple analogue will suffice. Infrastructure development refers to accumulation of physical assets such as roads, schools, health facilities, energy infrastructure etc. On the other hand, socioeconomic development refers to improvement in human development indicators such as longevity, access to good health facilities, access to education, higher levels of real income, availability of jobs etc. Generally, socioeconomic development entails improved living standards of the masses. Investment in infrastructure is a powerful tool for accumulation of physical capital. It is this infrastructure that the citizens have to work with to generate income. However, infrastructure development and socioeconomic development are not mutually exclusive. The two can be achieved simultaneously tho at different rate

ANNOUNCEMENT
The Centre for Research and Academic Excellence will late this year be conducting Research to model the intention of the voters to vote either for the opposition party or the ruling party in the 2021 general election given a number of factors that include: Gender of the voter, education attainment, location, income levels, Age, Congregation, material/financial inducement snd employment status. This study will cover atleast 70 constituencies both rural and urban and to cover about 2000 randomly selected registered voters per constituency. The aim of the survey is to help electoral stakeholders reach out to the electorates with right message.
The Centre will soon develop the proposal and rich out to well wishers home and abroad for support. As a centre, we remain open to your input in this process.
Issued by
Saviour Lusaya
Centre Director
04/04/20

Qualitative data analysis

Could it be that H.E read my post?? So now be categorical mr president "are u implementing what i have suggested, subsidy?

Fellow Citizens,

I have decided to cut salaries of highly paid public workers to cushion impact on the vulnerable due to recent tariff hikes.

The cuts start with me as President and my Cabinet Ministers with immediate effect.

I have also directed the Secretary to Cabinet to cascade the directive to all non-unionised public officers including parastatal executives.

The slashing of salaries for highly paid public officers in both Government and the parastatal sector is aimed at cushioning the impact on citizens arising from the increase on fuel prices and electricity tarrifs announced by the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) yesterday.

The money realized will go into cushioning the impact on the vulnerable in society.

I fully understand the challenges that the people of Zambia are going through but I remain optimistic that the economy will rebound in 2020 due to the measures that my Government has put in place, including the implementation of cost cutting measures relating to travel of senior government officials and protecting the vulnerable through ring-fencing the resources to social sectors.

Public officers in the highest salary brackets will have their salaries cut by 20% whereas those in the middle will have theirs reduced by 15%, and those in the lower rung will be down by 10%.

Much as the increase in the pricing of the two essential commodities was inevitable, the Zambian people needed a cushion, hence my directive. The money realized from this decision will go towards ameliorating the impact that the increase would have brought on the masses.

I have shown the way and those willing to work with me should be ready to sacrifice.

God bless Zambia