Bhala Capital Investments

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Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The financial assets most affected by the nonfarm payroll (NFP) data include the US dollar, equities and gold. The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. That number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

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What Are Shares?

Shares are units of equity ownership in a corporation. For some companies, shares exist as a financial asset providing for an equal distribution of any residual profits, if any are declared, in the form of dividends. Shareholders of a stock that pays no dividends do not participate in a distribution of profits. Instead, they anticipate participating in the growth of the stock price as company profits increase.

Shares represent equity stock in a firm, with the two main types of shares being common shares and preferred shares. As a result, "shares" and "stock" are commonly used interchangeably.

Technical Overview

USDCAD has formed an Ascending Triangle pattern. The focus remains on the psychological 1.3000 level and the 38.2%FR level at 1.3022 from the withdrawal of the March 2020 peak and the May 2021 low. A sustained break of the 38.2%FR level would confirm that the downtrend from 1.4667 has been completed and the 1.206 long term support maintained. Further gains should be seen towards 50.0%FR at 1.3333 first, however rejection at 1.3022 would maintain the medium term bearish bias. A break of 1.2006 would continue the downtrend and carry more bearish implications.

USDCAD,H4

The intraday bias is currently neutral after retreating from 1.2912. Some consolidation is seen, but further rally is expected as long as support holds. A move above 1.2912 would continue the rally to 1.3000 next. A decisive break there would carry even greater bullish implications. On the downside, in the short term the price is likely to test 2 price levels, namely 1.2717 and 1.2675, before attempting to move back to the upside. The oscillation is testing the critical level of the midline from the upside, and a bounce back from the midline would indicate the price of the asset is not yet expected to fall. Broadly speaking, the indications from the technical indicators are still dominant to the upside, however traders should watch out for the 1.3000 price range.

Indonesia: Total Investment expanded nearly 30% YoY in Q1 – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja comments on the latest Total Investment figures in the Indonesian economy.

“Indonesia’s total investment rose by 28.5% y/y to IDR 282.4tn in 1Q22, aided by a pick-up in foreign investment.”

“Investments outside of Java Island accounted for 52.7% of the total investment in 1Q22.”

“The investments added 319,013 jobs in 1Q22.”

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the upside comes 104.00

DXY meets some selling interest around 103.70 on Tuesday.
The resumption of the upside could see the YTD high revisited.
DXY partially fades Monday’s moderate advance and comes under downside pressure around 103.40.

Price action in DXY remains supportive of the resumption of the uptrend in place since the beginning of the year. In that scenario, the next up barrier is at the 2022 peak just below the 104.00 yardstick (April 28) prior to 105.63 (December 11 2002 high).

The current bullish stance in the index remains supported by the 8-month line near 96.80, while the longer-term outlook for the dollar is seen constructive while above the 200-day SMA at 95.81.

DXY daily chart

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Near-term upside capped around 138.00
May 3, 2022 11:47 AM
EUR/JPY trades in an inconclusive note below 137.00 on Tuesday.
Further side-lined trading remains in the pipeline near term.
EUR/JPY extends the bearish start of the week and drops to the sub-137.00 area on Tuesday.

The cross has likely moved into a consolidative phase awaiting for further catalysts in the short term. The continuation of the uptrend is a likely scenario in case the cross manages to surpass the 138.00 area. That said, the immediate hurdle still emerges at the 2022 high around 140.00 (April 21) prior to the June 2015 high at 141.05.

In the meantime, while above the 200-day SMA at 130.76, the outlook for the cross is expected to remain constructive.

EUR/JPY daily chart👇