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16 th – 20th December 2016
USD/ZAR – FORECAST
by DR. RICHARD KENNETH BOXALL - Master Trader

www.arcticlavaiba.com

Fundamentals
 Rand may remain resilient if other economic factors like inflation are sturdy.  The Rand continues to weaken despite talk of higher-yielding emerging market currencies rebounding. This may be due to the impact of falling gold prices as gold is South Africa’s largest export so a fall in prices would be expected to weaken the Rand. The reflationary Trumponomics theme currently in vogue, as well as commentary from the Governor of the Bank of Japan that he sees a resurgence in global growth, are not helping the yellow metal either. We see gold's downtrend as pretty steep and likely to weigh on the Rand for some time.  South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is likely to cut interest rates in 2017. A reduction in interest rates would also weaken the currency, as it would attract less flows of high-interest rate seeking foreign capital. “Local inflation yesterday came out on expectations of 6.6%. However, we have adjusted our 2017 forecasts downwards to reflect the methodology Stats SA will use to incorporate the lotto ticket price increases. “We now expect headline inflation of 5.4% (5.6% previously) and core inflation of 5.3% (5.7%). This strengthens our view that the SARB will cut rates next year, starting in May,”

Technicals – Price Action
 Range bound until the following range is broken: 13.88 - 13.96. Positioning is inconclusive at this point, with prices offering no clear cut signal to initiate a long or short trade. We will continue to remain on side-lines for the time being.  Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds key support at 13.88 marks.  Target 14.00 or 14.2 in more bullish conditions expected, and then short again.

Technicals – Indicators
 Important to note here that 20D, 30D and 55D EMA heads down and confirms the bearish trend in a daily chart  The MACD momentum indicator is also looking bullish after recovering from the zero-line which it drifted down to during the recent gentle sell-off.  The USD/ZAR has broken above a key trend line, in a move which is a strong bullish sign. Although the pair failed to follow-through to the upside the break is definitive and suggests a move higher will eventually unfold. www.arcticlavaiba.com

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South African rand weakens against U.S. dollar, faces strong resistance at 14.75

Monday, September 12, 2016 6:41 AMIncrease text sizeDecrease text size
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USD/ZAR is currently trading around 14.45 levels.
It made intraday high at 14.46 and low at 14.36 levels.

Intraday bias remains bullish till the time pair holds major support at 14.27 levels.

A daily close above 14.50 will take the parity higher towards key resistances around 14.68, 14.96, 15.05, 15.28, 15.45, 15.66, 15.77, 15.86(February 29, 2016 high) and 16.15 marks respectively.

Alternatively, a daily close below 14.37 will drag the parity down towards key supports at 14.17, 13.90, 13.65, 13.38, 13.19, 13.00, 12.82 and 12.58 levels respectively.

Important to note here that 20D, 30D and 55D EMA heads down and confirms the bearish trend in a daily chart. Current upside movement is short term trend correction only.
We prefer to go long on USD/ZAR only above 14.46, stop loss at 14.17 and target of 14.68/14.96.