Teacher Jay

TROPICAL STORM RAGASA 2025

Ragasa (Philippine name Nando, Japanese Typhoon Number 18) is located 324 km west of Hong Kong, and has tracked westward at 26 km/h (14 knots) over the past 6 hours. Minimum central pressure at 24/12:00 UTC is 966 hPa.

Infrared imagery as well as radar imagery show the system has made landfall near Yangjiang, China and is tracking westward. Frictional effects of land interaction result in significant and rapid deterioration of the vortex.

As Ragasa is steered westward under the influence from a subtropical ridge to the northeast, it is forecast to continue weakening, while full dissipation is expected in 36 hours.
Within the next 12 hours the system will pass near the waters of South China Sea, just west of the Leizhou Peninsula, however majority of available guidance shows track just north of open water.

This is the final warning on this system by JTWC. The system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

Warning Number 25. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

TROPICAL STORM BUALOI (OPONG) 2025

Bualoi (Philippine name Opong, Japanese Typhoon Number 20) is located 965 km east-southeast of Manila, Philippines, and has tracked west-northwestward at 19 km/h (10 knots) over the past 6 hours. Maximum significant wave height is 7.3 meters (24 feet).

Bualoi will move west-northwestward along the southern edge of the subtropical ridge over the next 3 days.

Bualoi will make landfall in around 24 hours, with steady weakening as the system tracks across the central Philippine islands. After emerging back over water in around 42 hours, Bualoi is forecast to gradually intensify to typhoon strength in 4 days.

The system will turn more northwestward as it tracks along the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, with landfall over northern Vietnam expected by around 4.5 days.

With the exception of JGSM, the deterministic guidance is in fair agreement supporting the JTWC forecast track with medium confidence. Reliable intensity guidance supports the reintensification phase over the South China Sea, with a large spread in peak intensity values.

HAFS-A shows a more modest peak intensity of 100 km/h (53 knots) at 3 days.

Warning Number 7. Information provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

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