ISB Econsult

07/03/2018

*Pressure on Vietnamese bond yields to rise*
Since the start of 2018 global 10-year government bond yields have been rising at an accelerated rate as the major central banks of the world appear to be shifting away from the dovish policies that had forced interest rates to extremely low levels relative to aggregate prices. The long process of restoring real bond yields to historic averages will most likely put upward pressure on Vietnamese bond rates in the medium- and long term. The current widening in the gap between global- and Vietnamese real bond yields is attributable to a continuous fall in Vietnamese bond yields and a recent upward movement in the Vietnamese inflation rate, which could prompt the SBV to start raising interest rates sooner rather than later.
>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/pressure-on-vietnamese-bond-yields-to-rise/

07/03/2018

*Vietnam’s strong current account is bolstering its foreign reserves*
Vietnam’s foreign exchange reserves rose at a record pace of US$ 15 billion in 2017, primarily due to a strong current account surplus for the year (see chart) and large capital inflows. This increase in reserves took total reserves to US$ 52 billion. This is considered important for the stability of the Vietnamese D**g, especially in the context of a possible downturn in the global economy in the not too distant future.

The rise in reserves takes import cover to an estimated 2.8-3.0 months at the end of 2017, up from 1.9 two years before. To put these numbers into some perspective, the average for most East Asian economies is about 8 months, with China having close to 20 months of import cover. As Bloomberg noted in September of last year, these economies appear to be preparing for future pressure on their currencies. Vietnam’s relatively low reserves could suggest it has still some way to go to attaining the required level of security.
>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/vietnams-strong-current-account-is-bolstering-its-foreign-reserves/

07/03/2018

Who and what is it intended for?
The workshop on the Vietnamese economy is intended to help businesses take timely and effective decisions, thereby enhancing their competitive positions. It is intended to help business executives cut through the jargon, quantitative techniques, and sheer mass of data and opinions thrown at them by economists and market watchers, and get to grips with the economic fundamentals that matter. With the aid of simple economic concepts and readily understandable charts and tables, participants will be shown how economic knowledge can guide them in making more informed business decisions. No explicit knowledge of the economy or economics is presupposed.
>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/vietnamese-macroeconomy-workshop/

07/03/2018

VIETNAMESE MACROECONOMY WORKSHOP
What is the workshop about?
The workshop will seek to introduce participants to Vietnam’s macroeconomy for the purposes of business decision-making. The key elements of the macroeconomy covered are economic growth, inflation, the financial system, and the balance of payments and exchange rate. An understanding of these elements it is hoped will provide a solid basis for assessing the future short- and long-term direction of the Vietnamese economy and thereby aid decision-making. Particular emphasis will be on explaining the necessity of identifying long-term trends, structural shifts, and cyclical movements in the world economy when forecasting key macroeconomic variables of the Vietnamese economy.

*Workshop outline*
Overview

Global economic setting for understanding the macroeconomic dynamics of the Vietnamese economy.

Economic Growth

Is the high growth rate sustainable?
Cycles in the Vietnamese economy increasingly synchronised with that of the global economy.
Why it matters for business and portfolio decision-making.

Inflation

How long is the low trend inflation rate likely to persist?
Do domestic forces and government policy make a real difference?
Why it matters for business and portfolio decision-making.
Financial markets

Understanding Vietnam’s financial markets.
Trends in money and bond market rates.
Government monetary policy.
Is Vietnam’s stock market finally turning?

The Balance of Payments and Exchange Rate

Understanding the balance of payments and trends in it.
Assessment of the competitiveness of the Vietnamese D**g.
Implications of the movement of the D**g for Vietnamese businesses.
>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/vietnamese-macroeconomy-workshop/

07/03/2018

The instructor

The workshop will be conducted by Dr H. Nicholas (Associate Professor, International Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University of Rotterdam and visiting Professor ISB, University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh City). Dr Nicholas is a well-known lecturer and commentator on the global economy who has lectured on the subject in numerous countries over the last 30 years including The Netherlands, Belgium, China, Sri Lanka, Jamaica, and Suriname. His recorded predictions include;

The long bull market in bonds, in which he was a participant from the late 1980s onwards.
The East Asian crisis accompanied with a timely warning to Sri Lankan policy makers about the dangers of premature liberalization of the capital account.
The US credit crunch and the global financial crisis in a series of lectures from 2005 onwards.
Among his current predictions is continuing rapid growth of the emerging market economies, the decline of the US economy, fiscal expansion in the advanced countries, and a major downturn in the global economy within the next 2 years.
>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/global-economy-workshop/

07/03/2018

Workshop outline
Part 1: Recent and likely future developments in the world economy

Long-run trends in the global economy

Shifts in global production and wealth.
The rise and growing importance of China.
Cycles in the global economy

The long cycle
The short 7-11 year cycle
Major blockages in the global economy

Global liquidity and low interest rates
Mountains of debt
The likely future developments in the world economy

Short-run developments – when will the next global economic crisis hit?
Long-run developments – who are likely to be the winners and losers?
Part 2: Implications for key asset classes

Understanding the different asset classes

The important asset classes for investors and business decision makers.
Performance of different asset classes
Linkages of price movements in assets to global economic trends

Equities and economic growth
Inflation and bond prices
Primary metal prices and cycles
Exchange rates and their relation to shifts and cycles in the global economy.

>> http://isb.edu.vn/econsult/global-economy-workshop/

07/03/2018

What is the workshop about?
For a more comprehensive understanding of the world economy, we offer a workshop to explain global long-term and short-term trends of economic growth, as well as four important asset classes, namely: equities, bonds, primary commodities and currencies. As with the Vietnam Economic Workshop the Global Economic Workshop will be offered twice a year, and will contain references to our most recent global economic report, which includes forecasts on overall economic growth and global assets of particular interest.
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For a more comprehensive understanding of the world economy, we offer a workshop to explain global long-term and short-term trends of economic growth, as well as four important asset classes, namely: equities, bonds, primary commodities and currencies. As with the Vietnam Economic Workshop the Globa...