09/04/2015
KUDOS to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) stellar forecast performance thus far with this years hurricane season!!!
Of note, the recent forecasts of former Major Hurricane Danny, & Tropical Storm Erika, & Hurricane Fred (now an ongoing Tropical Storm in the far eastern Atlantic). In particular Tropical Storm Erika, which fizzled out before having a significant impact on the Bahamas and Florida (especially the populated areas of south Florida), The NHC wisely took the high end with Erika, even knowingly expecting the high mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba would make it unlikely that Ericka would be a strong storm,(albeit the potential fuel energy the Gulf Stream could provide by the time after it reached and past by the Bahamas). They took note of that possibility in its public discussions.
In reality Ericka was a remnant tropical low/Tropical Wave that moved through. Keep in mind South Florida has not been impacted by a significant Tropical Cyclone in ten years, so it made perfect sense for south Floridians to prepare for the worse.
The hurricane season is now at its peak, so we have a ways to go, in this El Nino year which normally calls for a timid season. Keep in mind, there were only seven (7) Tropical Cyclones during the entire hurricane season when Andrew hit!!
NHC's site is www.nhc.noaa.gov/
You can also find this link, along with many other weather information resources, at www.ChesneauMarineWeather.com (drop down the menu 'Marine Weather Links').
-- Lee
Lee Chesneau's Marine Weather
206-949-4680 (cell)
e-mail: [email protected]
http://www.marineweatherbylee.com