Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies

08/28/2026

Why is it so difficult to finance new critical minerals projects outside adversary-controlled supply chains?

Because the price they would be financed against can be moved at will. On July 22, 2026 assessments, ex-China premia ran ~236% for tungsten APT, ~484% for dysprosium oxide, and ~415% for terbium oxide. The market has already split. What is missing is a price investors can underwrite.

In a new Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy working paper, Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes proposes an Allied Reference Price: a published benchmark for material from qualified producers free of adversarial control, set per mineral and per production stage. Reverse auctions let qualified producers compete for multiyear contracts from committed buyers, creating price signals and contract structures that lenders and equity investors can actually underwrite.

Rather than relying on negotiated price floors backed by the federal balance sheet, the framework builds scalable market infrastructure: competition among qualified producers, a premium built to shrink, and published graduation triggers from day one.

This is the fourth paper in the Critical Minerals Capital Series.

Read the working paper: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/bifurcated-reference-pricing-market-architecture-critical-minerals

Rice University

Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes proposes an Allied Reference Price to address financing barriers facing Western critical minerals projects exposed to China-anchored prices. The paper outlines a benchmark for qualified material based on reverse auctions and multiyear supply contracts, creating market infrastru...

08/27/2026

Pyrolysis and incineration are often discussed as if they are interchangeable. They are not.

In a new Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy explainer, CES Fellow Rachel Meidl breaks down the science behind these two thermal processes and why the difference matters for public policy, environmental oversight, and conversations about plastics and waste management.

Understanding how these processes work—and how facilities actually operate—is essential to evaluating claims around chemical recycling, emissions, energy recovery, and the circular economy.

Read “The Fire Triangle: Understanding Pyrolysis and Incineration”:
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/fire-triangle-understanding-pyrolysis-and-incineration

Rice University

The Fire Triangle, Plastics, and PyrolysisUnderstanding the basic chemistry of fire informs how experts evaluated hazards, anticipated chemical reactions, selected protective measures, and respond safely when materials behaved in unexpected ways. This understanding also shapes policy related to chem...

08/26/2026

As the United States and Europe reassess their approaches to governing advanced artificial intelligence, some of the most consequential work on practical AI governance may be taking shape in Asia.

In a new article for the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, CES Nonresident Fellow Henry Haggard and Chris McKinney examine how South Korea and Japan are building distinct frameworks for AI governance—while also serving as critical nodes in the global technology supply chain.

South Korea’s new AI framework and Japan’s promotion-focused approach are addressing key questions around safety evaluation, incident reporting, institutional capacity, and the rules that may shape how frontier AI systems are developed and deployed.

The authors argue that policymakers and researchers should look beyond Washington and Brussels and engage seriously with the governance models emerging in Seoul and Tokyo.

Read “For the Future of AI Governance, Look to Asia”:
https://ucigcc.org/blog/for-the-future-of-ai-governance-look-to-asia/



Haggard and McKinney emphasize that South Korea and Japan are pursuing separate approaches—not a single “Asian model”—but both are developing governance systems with global relevance because of their roles in AI hardware, semiconductor, and technology supply chains. Rice University Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy

For the Future of AI Governance, Look to Asia August 07, 2026 Henry Haggard and Chris McKinney Blog This year, the world’s two regulatory superpowers—Europe and the United States—each stepped back from advancing binding rules on advanced artificial intelligence (AI). In late July, the EU’s D...

08/24/2026

Thank you to everyone who joined us for the 3rd Annual Conference on Energy, Technology, and Grid Resilience.

Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Center for Energy Studies was proud to convene policymakers, industry leaders, researchers, students, and community members for a day of conversation on the technologies, investments, and policy choices shaping a more reliable and resilient electric grid.

We are especially grateful to our partners at the The University of Oklahoma for helping make this year’s conference possible, as well as to our speakers, moderators, and attendees for contributing their expertise and perspective.

Thank you for being part of the discussion on the future of energy and grid resilience.

The conference took place Aug. 20 as a free public event from 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. and focused on energy, technology, and grid resilience.

08/19/2026

Can small modular reactors help meet rising demand for reliable, lower-carbon electricity?

In a new episode of The Energy Forum, CES Fellows Gabriel Collins and Henry Haggard examine the potential for small modular reactors, or SMRs, to serve large industrial and commercial power users—including data centers—and provide an alternative for regions where a large conventional nuclear plant may not be economically feasible.

They discuss what it would take for SMRs to become a practical and competitive option, including the role of international partnerships with key U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea.

Listen to “Thinking Big With Small Reactors”:
https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/thinking-big-small-reactors



The episode was recorded August 11 and focuses on the conditions needed for SMRs to provide reliable power and support long-term energy security.

Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Rice University

Small modular reactors, or SMRs, are attracting growing interest as a potential source of reliable, lower-carbon electricity for industries, data centers, and countries that may not need, or be able to finance, a large conventional nuclear plant. In this episode of “The Energy Forum,” Gabriel Co...

08/18/2026

Congratulations to CES Graduate Fellow Johnny Coudsi on successfully defending his dissertation and completing his Ph.D. in Economics at Rice University.

Coudsi’s dissertation, “Essays on the Energy Transition in Electricity Markets,” examines how the growth of renewable energy is reshaping the Texas electricity market. His research explores the retirement of existing thermal power plants, the design of renewable-support policies, and the technologies and resources attracting new investment.

We are proud to celebrate this important milestone and look forward to the contributions his research will continue to make to the study of electricity markets and the energy transition.

Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Rice University School of Social Sciences Rice University's Office of Graduate & Postdoctoral Studies

08/14/2026

Thank you to everyone who joined the Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Center for Energy Studies for our webinar on the 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy.

This year marks the 75th edition of the Statistical Review, a trusted resource for understanding global energy markets. During the discussion, Energy Institute Chief Executive Nick Wayth and Selene Law, head of the Statistical Review of World Energy, explored the data and trends shaping the global energy landscape.

If you were unable to attend—or would like to revisit the conversation—the full recording is now available.

Watch the webinar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQdIvXcVk4I



The July 29 webinar examined the 75th edition of the Statistical Review, which provides global, regional, and country-level insight into how energy systems responded to geopolitical, economic, and environmental developments in 2025. Mark Finley, CES fellow in energy and global oil, moderated the discussion.

July 29, 2026The Energy Institute (EI), in partnership with Ember...

08/14/2026

What would an oil export ban mean for U.S. energy markets?

CES Senior Director Ken Medlock spoke with Marketplace Business News about why industry leaders are seeking to prevent new limits on U.S. oil and fuel exports. While an export ban could temporarily lower prices, its longer-term effects could disrupt market flows, investment decisions, and energy supply chains.

The discussion revisits questions CES examined more than a decade ago as Congress considered lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban. In 2015, Medlock’s analysis explored how removing export restrictions could affect domestic crude prices, production, refining, and consumers—a study that later informed congressional testimony.

Listen to the Marketplace interview and explore the 2015 CES study in the comments below.

Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy

08/12/2026

It did not take a physical closure of the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt global shipping. Iran’s demonstrated ability to credibly threaten transit through the strait was enough to sharply reduce vessel traffic—underscoring how quickly geopolitical risk can ripple across energy markets and supply chains.

In the Summer 2026 issue of NAPE Expo Magazine, Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Center for Energy Studies Senior Director Ken Medlock places this moment in the broader history of energy-market shocks. From the 1973 Arab oil embargo and the Soviet collapse to the 2008 financial crisis and recent disruptions tied to COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the Hormuz standoff, his analysis examines how these events shape markets over time.

Looking ahead, Medlock considers what diversification and optionality can mean for managing risk in an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape.

Read “The Year of the ‘Shock’: What Comes Next? Looking Back to Look Ahead” on pages 45–50. Link in the comments.

Rice University

08/11/2026

What is reshaping the outlook for global oil markets—and what should we watch next?

In a new publication for NAPE Expo , Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Center for Energy Studies Nonresident Fellows Skip York and Abhi Rajendran examine the forces influencing today’s oil and downstream ecosystems, from geopolitical risk and shale production to refining capacity and global fuel supply.

Their analysis explores:

▪️ How persistent supply shocks are shaping market flexibility and regional risk premiums
▪️ The medium-term outlook for production across U.S. shale basins
▪️ Global refining trends and capacity constraints that could influence future fuel supplies
▪️ The market indicators and policy signals to watch as energy markets continue to evolve

Read the article on pages 41–44 in the comment below.

Rice University