Arab Gulf States Institute

For Riyadh, developing stronger ties with India could yield sought-after economic dividends, but it comes with a mixed bag of regional and international implications. – Robert Mogielnicki

Saudi-Indian Ties Poised for Cautious Growth - Arab Gulf States Institute For Riyadh, developing stronger ties with India could yield sought-after economic dividends, but it comes with a mixed bag of regional and international implications.

Baghdad is weaponizing economic levers to punish the Kurdistan region for signing energy pacts with U.S. firms and for aligning with President Trump’s commercial diplomacy. – Yerevan Saeed

Baghdad’s Financial Squeezing of Kurdistan Undermines U.S. Interests - Arab Gulf States Institute Baghdad is weaponizing economic levers to punish the Kurdistan region for signing energy pacts with U.S. firms and for aligning with President Trump’s commercial diplomacy.

Payments by Aramco are still the key driver of government revenue in Saudi Arabia despite the notable increase in non-oil revenue, particularly from the value-added tax, in recent years. – Tim Callen & Justin Alexander

Aramco and the Saudi Government Budget - Arab Gulf States Institute Payments by Aramco are still the key driver of government revenue in Saudi Arabia despite the notable increase in non-oil revenue, particularly from the value-added tax, in recent years.

The coming weeks will offer clarity about whether President Trump’s claim – “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran” – signals an informal, recalibration of Washington’s Iran sanctions strategy or a tactical feint without lasting repercussions. – John Calabrese

The U.S.-China-Iran Oil Triangle in Flux - Arab Gulf States Institute The coming weeks will offer clarity about whether President Trump’s claim – “China can now continue to purchase Oil from Iran” – signals an informal, recalibration of Washington’s Iran sanctions strategy or a tactical feint without lasting repercussions.

The latest regional conflict reinforced how difficult it is to severely disrupt economic momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council while highlighting genuine threats to economic security and public safety in the region. – Robert Mogielnicki

Israel-Iran Conflict Reveals Resilience and Vulnerability of GCC Economies - Arab Gulf States Institute The latest regional conflict reinforced how difficult it is to severely disrupt economic momentum in the Gulf Cooperation Council while highlighting genuine threats to economic security and public safety in the region.

If Iran decides to continue retaliation, the Houthis will likely be part of that response at some point. – Gregory Johnsen https://agsi.org/analysis/why-the-houthis-went-missing-in-action/

Moscow relied on Iranian drones in Ukraine. Now that the situation is reversed, will Russia help Iran rebuild its deterrence after Israel’s deep strikes? – Francesco Salesio Schiavi

Russia’s Role in Iran’s Drone and Missile Gamble - Arab Gulf States Institute Moscow relied on Iranian drones in Ukraine. Now that the situation is reversed, will Russia help Iran rebuild its deterrence after Israel’s deep strikes?

The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate. – Ali Alfoneh

Iran’s Strategic Dilemma: Capitulation or Parity? - Arab Gulf States Institute The current cease-fire may just be an interregnum between rounds of conflict between Israel and Iran, as Iranian decision makers appear more inclined to pursue strategic parity than capitulate.

While the just-announced cease-fire provides only a very preliminary indication of how the crisis with Iran will end, some questions can be answered, and those answers offer valuable insight. – Ambassador James F. Jeffrey

The Iran Strikes: Six Answerable Questions - Arab Gulf States Institute While the just-announced cease-fire provides only a very preliminary indication of how the crisis with Iran will end, some questions can be answered, and those answers offer valuable insight.

Tomorrow – 2025: The GCC Energy Sector: Transformation, Diversification, and Global Ambition. Join us virtually.

Petro Diplomacy 2025: The GCC Energy Sector: Transformation, Diversification, and Global Ambition For the 11th consecutive year, AGSI will convene its Petro Diplomacy conference, bringing together private and public sector stakeholders from the United Sta...

U.S. officials’ desire to treat the attack on Iran as “one and done” might run up against a failure of diplomacy that creates a bias toward regime change. – Amb. William Roebuck

The Impact of the Attack on Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy Calculus - Arab Gulf States Institute U.S. officials’ desire to treat the attack on Iran as “one and done” might run up against a failure of diplomacy that creates a bias toward regime change.

Absent deeper and broader hostilities, the Israel-Iran conflict will have a limited impact on the Saudi economy. – Tim Callen

Saudi Economic Outlook Amid Regional Conflict - Arab Gulf States Institute Absent deeper and broader hostilities, the Israel-Iran conflict will have a limited impact on the Saudi economy.