Committee For a Responsible Federal Budget

06/03/2026

𝗡𝗼 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 🗺️ 𝗠𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆'𝘀 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆

Social Security insolvency is less than 7 years away, at which point retirees will face a 24% benefit cut upon trust fund depletion...

Our new first-of-its-kind “𝙉𝙤 𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙎𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙙” report illustrates the potential state-by-state impact of Social Security's insolvency.

Using the projected 24% benefit cut and the most recent state-level data available, we estimate that ⤵️

➡️ Average monthly benefit cuts would surpass $500 in 29 states.

➡️ More than 15% of the population would be directly impacted in 47 states.

➡️ Total benefit cuts would exceed 1% of GDP in 40 states.

𝗡𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 from the potentially devastating effects of Social Security insolvency.

For information on the impact on your home state and how it compares to others, check out the report here 👉 https://www.crfb.org/blogs/no-state-spared-mapping-impact-social-securitys-insolvency

02/12/2026

🚨𝗙𝗨𝗟𝗟 𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗬𝗦𝗜𝗦: Yesterday, the Congressional Budget Office released its 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook. The report has been updated from the January 2025 baseline to account for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, tariffs, changes in immigration, recent trends in the economy, and other factors 📈

CBO’s latest projections show:

1️⃣ Debt will reach a record of 𝟭𝟮𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝗚𝗗𝗣 by 2036.

2️⃣ Deficits will exceed $𝟯 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 by 2036.

3️⃣ Spending is larger and growing faster than revenue.

4️⃣ Interest costs will explode.

5️⃣ Major trust funds are approaching insolvency.

6️⃣ Deficit projections are higher than last year.

7️⃣ The economy will surge then normalize, while interest rates will rise.

Read the full analysis of the report here 👉 https://www.crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2026-budget-and-economic-outlook

01/10/2026

☑️Objective. ☑️Nonpartisan. ☑️Committed to Fiscal Responsibility.

Follow the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget for our latest analysis of what's shaping the fiscal conversation in Washington.

🔗https://www.crfb.org/ | 📲

12/02/2024

🚨 As policymakers consider extending parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and possibly making other tax changes, there will be discussion about how best to score the deficit effects of any changes.

"Conventional scoring" incorporates the effects of tax changes on individual and business behavior, but it does not account for the effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, inflation, and interest rates, while “dynamic scoring” does incorporate macroeconomic effects.

The following is a statement from CRFB president : https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/policymakers-should-include-dynamic-scores-tax-reform

10/07/2024

🇺🇸 NEW ANALYSIS: The Fiscal Impact of the Harris and Trump Campaign Plans🇺🇸

Our comprehensive analysis breaks down the presidential candidates' tax and spending plans and what they would mean for the national debt.

Read the full analysis here: https://crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans

Under our central estimate, we find:

➡️ Vice President Harris would add $3.50 trillion to the projected debt through FY 2035

➡️ President Trump would add $7.50 trillion to the projected debt through FY 2035

As in past election years, this analysis presents high- and low-cost estimates for each proposal along with our central estimates.

Under our low-cost estimate, we find the Harris plan would be roughly deficit neutral, while the Trump plan would increase the debt by $1.45 trillion.

Under our high-cost estimate, we find the Harris plan would increase debt by $8.10 trillion, while the Trump plan would increase debt by $15.15 trillion.

***This report is a product of our US Budget Watch 2024 project designed to educate the public on the fiscal impact of presidential candidates' proposals and platforms. We do not support or oppose any candidate for public office.***

06/26/2024

🇺🇸 Trump and Biden: The National Debt 🇺🇸

The national debt is on course to reach a record share of the economy under the next presidential administration, due in part to policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden during their time in office.

In new analysis from our US Budget Watch project, we find:

➡️ President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term in office, or $4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief.

➡️ President Biden, in his first three years and five months in office, approved $4.3 trillion of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.

Read the full analysis, including breakdowns for both President Trump and President Biden along with our methodology, on our website at https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-biden-national-debt

04/17/2024

📰 NEW in Star Tribune: CRFB Co-Chair Tim Penny and Emeritus Member David Minge, both former MN Reps., discuss a worrying Tax Day reality – more and more of our income tax payments go toward interest on the national debt.

They argue our fiscal health hasn't always been this bad – and it can be made better once again.

Read more: https://startribune.com/taxes-increasingly-paying-for-the-past-not-the-future/600359361/

03/20/2024

🚨NEW STATEMENT🚨 The Congressional Budget Office released its latest Long-Term Budget Outlook today, projecting the nation’s finances over the next 30 years.

CBO projects that the debt held by the public will hit a new record share of the economy in just four years and grow to 166 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2054.

CBO also projects that the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will be exhausted in 2033, the Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund in 2035, and the Highway Trust Fund in 2028.

The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:

"This is yet another reminder that politicians put political priorities ahead of the long-term health of the country. There is no way to look at these eye-popping numbers without realizing we need to make a change. And yet we have lawmakers promising what they won’t do: I won’t raise taxes, I won’t fix Social Security, I won’t pay for all the things I do want to do. And so we continue on this dangerous path.

"Despite some recent progress with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, our debt remains on an unsustainable trajectory. Even under current law, CBO projects debt will double as a share of the economy relative to pre-pandemic levels. And major trust funds supporting Social Security, highways, and Medicare face looming insolvency.

"So far, the presidential campaign is not offering any hope – candidates need to be asked how they would fix Social Security, fix Medicare, and bring the debt back to manageable levels. Voters should not be satisfied without specific answers.

"The scariest part of our grim fiscal outlook is rising interest costs. Those costs have already doubled as a share of the economy since 2015, and this year CBO believes interest will cost more than defense spending or Medicare. By 2053, interest costs will double again after becoming the single largest line item in the entire federal budget in 2051. This year, we will spend $870 billion on interest – more than all the federal dollars we spend on children – and that number will only grow from here..."

Click here to read the full statement on our website: https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/cbo-presents-grim-long-term-fiscal-outlook

03/11/2024

🚨 BREAKING: President Biden released his Fiscal Year 2025 budget request today, including a number of tax and spending proposals and a roadmap for the country’s finances over the next decade.

Under the President’s budget, based on its own estimates, the national debt would rise to $45.1 trillion or 105.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2034, from $27.4 trillion or about 97 percent of GDP today. The budget would reduce deficits by a net $3.3 trillion over the next decade, relative to its baseline.

The following is a statement from CRFB president Maya MacGuineas:

President Biden released his Fiscal Year 2025 budget request today, including a number of tax and spending proposals and a roadmap for the country’s finances over the next decade.

02/08/2024

🚨 FULL ANALYSIS 🚨 of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)'s February 2024 Budget and Economic Outlook ⤵️

➡️ Debt will reach record 116% of GDP by 2034;
➡️ Deficits will reach $2.6 trillion by 2034;
➡️ Spending and revenue will remain far apart;
➡️ Interest costs will explode;
➡️ Major trust funds are approaching insolvency;
➡️ The FRA improved the fiscal outlook;
➡️ Inflation will fall; growth will remain steady; interest rates remain high.

Read all the findings at https://crfb.org/papers/cbos-february-2024-budget-and-economic-outlook