The Jamestown Foundation

Join us tomorrow, May 30th at 10 am for a remote event: Georgians Protest Passing of Foreign Agents Law—a Discussion with Georgian Minister of Parliament Ana Natsvlishvili moderated by Jamestown Senior Fellow Margarita Assenvoa.

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Event: Georgians Protest Passing of Foreign Agents Law—a Discussion with Georgian Minister of Parliament Ana Natsvlishvili - Jamestown About the Event May 26 marked the 106th anniversary of Georgia’s adoption of the Act of Independence in 1918. The country experienced a brief period of freedom before it was occupied by Soviet forces. Ninety years later, Russia again violated Georgia’s sovereignty by occupying Abkhazia and South...

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Don't forget to register for our HYBRID event "Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy, a Joint Jamestown–Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Event" tomorrow April 16 from 9am-5pm.

Register online here: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_E8sgf2eSTMmsGqYsHu4GHg

For more information: https://jamestown.org/event/register-now-russias-rupture-and-western-policy-a-joint-jamestown-free-nations-of-post-russia-forum-event/

Register Now: Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy, a Joint Jamestown–Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Event - Jamestown   About the Event The imperialist Russian polity under Vladimir Putin is a source of conflict worldwide, from Eastern Europe and the Caucasus to the Middle East and Western Balkans. The Russian “Federation” is a federation in name only and, at its heart, is a colonial empire. Moscow is a key pa...

Check out our latest Strategic Snapshot "Russia's Domestic Pressure Cooker," featuring articles from: Paul Goble, Ksenia Kirillova, Vadim Shtepa, Pavel K. Baev, Valery Dzutsati, and Andrii Ryzhenko.

Read here:
https://mailchi.mp/jamestown/jamestown-strategic-digest-vol-4-issue-539577?e=872888fcf7

To help draw out the experiences and observations that enrich our understanding, we are launching Jamestown Perspectives, a vehicle for articles that do not necessarily fit the traditional mold of our publications.
– Jamestown President Peter Mattis

Introducing Jamestown Perspectives - Jamestown At The Jamestown Foundation, we focus most of our efforts on understanding the world from the Bering Strait and the South China Sea to the Baltic and Mediterranean seas. The strength of our work comes from our analysts who reside in more than 30 countries and have direct, first-hand experience with....

"The Russian 'Federation' is a federation in name only and, at its heart, is a colonial empire."

Join us on April 16 for our "Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy" joint event with Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum.

Register here:

Register Now: Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy, a Joint Jamestown–Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Event - Jamestown   About the Event The imperialist Russian polity under Vladimir Putin is a source of conflict worldwide, from Eastern Europe and the Caucasus to the Middle East and Western Balkans. The Russian “Federation” is a federation in name only and, at its heart, is a colonial empire. Moscow is a key pa...

Join us for "Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy, a Joint Jamestown–Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Event" on April 16 beginning at 9am. The event will be hybrid, with participants encouraged to attend in-person.

Register here:

Register Now: Russia’s Rupture and Western Policy, a Joint Jamestown–Free Nations of Post-Russia Forum Event - Jamestown   About the Event The imperialist Russian polity under Vladimir Putin is a source of conflict worldwide, from Eastern Europe and the Caucasus to the Middle East and Western Balkans. The Russian “Federation” is a federation in name only and, at its heart, is a colonial empire. Moscow is a key pa...

Check out Jamestown Senior Fellow Janusz Bugajski's new article "Janusz Bugajski’s Washington View: Russia is Terrorizing Itself" in Istraga.

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Janusz Bugajski’s Washington View: Russia is Terrorizing Itself - Istraga .ba The terrorist slaughter of over 140 civilians in a Moscow concert hall on March 22 is a catalyst for more far-reaching conflicts in Russian society. Amidst disputes over the affiliation of the four perpetrators, the slaughters have revealed two of the many structural weaknesses of the Russian state....

Check out Jamestown Senior Analyst Janusz Bugajski's latest article "Central Asia gains prominence in European Union strategy" in New Eastern Europe.

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Central Asia gains prominence in European Union strategy Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the importance of Central Asia to the EU has become increasingly clear. Now represents an opportune moment for Brussels to strengthen a relationship that could greatly benefit both regions in the future.

Russia Converts Ukrainian Children Into Enemies

Alla Hurska for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Russia has transformed the education system in the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, replacing educators and curriculum with pro-Russian, military-patriotic education aimed at militarizing Ukrainian children against their homeland.
•The Kremlin has started to erase the Ukrainian language, rewrite history books, impose Russian-style educational standards, and promote Russian ideology within Ukraine’s educational institutions.
•A system for the “re-education and integration” of kidnapped Ukrainian children is being actively carried out in the Russian Far East and Belarus, seeking to brainwash them against Ukraine.

Russia Converts Ukrainian Children Into Enemies - Jamestown Executive Summary: Russia has transformed the education system in the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, replacing educators and curriculum with pro-Russian, military-patriotic education aimed at militarizing Ukrainian children against their homeland. The Kremlin has started to er...

Moscow’s Action in Ingushetia About Far More Than Counterterrorism

Paul Goble for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Moscow recently carried out a counterterrorism operation against what it describes as Islamist radicals in Ingushetia—the smallest, poorest, and arguably most restive republic not only in the North Caucasus but also in the Russian Federation.
•The Kremlin took this step lest violence in the region call into question President Vladimir Putin’s claims to have pacified the North Caucasus and out of fears that such incidents will spread because of indigenous activists and their Ukrainian supporters.
•Moscow’s latest move is likely to prove counterproductive and lead to precisely the opposite outcomes of what the Kremlin wants.

Moscow's Action in Ingushetia About Far More Than Counterterrorism - Jamestown Executive Summary: Moscow recently carried out a counterterrorism operation against what it describes as Islamist radicals in Ingushetia—the smallest, poorest, and arguably most restive republic not only in the North Caucasus but also in the Russian Federation. The Kremlin took this step lest viol...

Check out Jamestown Senior Fellow Janusz Bugajski's new article "Ukraine is winning the war with Russia" in the Washington Examiner.

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Ukraine is winning the war with Russia - Washington Examiner Russia's assertions that is winning the war contradict reality, as Ukraine is exposing its military and economic weaknesses on an almost daily basis.

Moscow Using Transnistria and Gagauzia to Pressure Moldova, Ukraine, and the West

Paul Goble for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Moscow has long exploited its influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia to pressure Moldova not to turn away from Russia and join Western institutions such as the European Union.
•The Kremlin is once again using these restive Moldovan regions by raising the specter that Moscow might recognize or even annex Transnistria and establish a land bridge with southwestern Ukraine.
•Russian propaganda in Transnistria and Gagauzia seeks to highlight the West’s inability to respond effectively—a signal intended for other countries in the region.

Moscow Using Transnistria and Gagauzia to Pressure Moldova, Ukraine, and the West - Jamestown Executive Summary: Moscow has long exploited its influence in Transnistria and Gagauzia to pressure Moldova not to turn away from Russia and join Western institutions such as the European Union. The Kremlin is once again using these restive Moldovan regions by raising the specter that Moscow might r...

Irreversible Changes Underway in Russian Society

Kseniya "Kassie" Kirillova for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support.
•Russian society has experienced a significant increase in violence and acceptance of that violence due to the return of pardoned convicts from the front and increased societal distress due to the prolonged war.
•The Russian public’s acceptance of increased violence alludes to a future of societal regression, which directly influences society’s potential for democratic changes in the short term.

Irreversible Changes Underway in Russian Society - Jamestown Executive Summary: The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. ...

Russia Reorganizes Military Districts

Pavel Luzin for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The Kremlin announced a transformation of its military districts to “buy” loyalty from its officer corps and organize its military with to prepare for war on and beyond its northwestern borders.
•The Russian High Command considers the movements of its neighbors and enemies before taking any military action, assessing when the world is most distracted and when Moscow can make its move without immediate interference.
•Russia wants to expand its military and political opportunities and considers a direct clash with the West highly likely, if not unavoidable, in the near future.

Russia Reorganizes Military Districts - Jamestown Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced a transformation of its military districts to “buy” loyalty from its officer corps and organize its military with to prepare for war on and beyond its northwestern borders. The Russian High Command considers the movements of its neighbors and enemies befo...

Russia’s Asia Pivot Meets With Iran’s Eurasian Tilt

Emil Avdaliani for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary
•Iran’s supply of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia is unprecedented, further diminishing any room for rapprochement between the West and Tehran.
•Tehran and Moscow’s military cooperation has been steadily growing and is nearing a formal alliance.
•The new interstate treaty will shape bilateral ties in the coming years and will primarily be motivated by Iran and Russia’s shared opposition to the collective West.

Russia's Asia Pivot Meets With Iran's Eurasian Tilt - Jamestown Executive Summary Iran’s supply of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia is unprecedented, further diminishing any room for rapprochement between the West and Tehran. Tehran and Moscow’s military cooperation has been steadily growing and is nearing a formal alliance. The new interstate...

Defense Officials Elaborate on Belarus’s Military Policies

Yauheni Preiherman, PhD for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Minsk is doubling down on military deterrence through asymmetrical means as Belarus finds itself in an increasingly complicated and entangled security situation due to the war in Ukraine.
•In recent years, Belarus’s military expenditures have fallen significantly lower than its neighbors’ budgets, giving the country an even greater incentive to avoid military confrontation.
•Belarusian defense officials underscored Minsk’s commitment to upholding existing nuclear and arms control treaties in contrast to Russia, which may give Belarus a seat in future European security dialogues.

Defense Officials Elaborate on Belarus's Military Policies - Jamestown Executive Summary: Minsk is doubling down on military deterrence through asymmetrical means as Belarus finds itself in an increasingly complicated and entangled security situation due to the war in Ukraine. In recent years, Belarus’s military expenditures have fallen significantly lower than its n...

Azerbaijan and Serbia Expand Defense Partnership

Fuad Shahbazov for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Serbian President Alexander Vučić confirmed a new $300 million defense contract with Azerbaijan on February 6, following years of strategic agreements between the two countries.
•The new defense contract will give Azerbaijan a foothold in the Balkans, providing Baku with a path to assert soft power over the region and find new partners outside the Middle East and Russia.
•Azerbaijan and Serbia have demonstrated that, despite the defense agreement, energy remains the focal point of their cooperation, especially natural gas and electricity exports.

Azerbaijan and Serbia Expand Defense Partnership - Jamestown Executive Summary: Serbian President Alexander Vučić confirmed a new $300 million defense contract with Azerbaijan on February 6, following years of strategic agreements between the two countries. The new defense contract will give Azerbaijan a foothold in the Balkans, providing Baku with a path t...

New ‘Black January’ in Bashkortostan Casts Ever-Darker Shadow

Paul Goble for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The Bashkirs are increasingly hearkening back to their heritage of resistance to the central government, leading other non-Russian ethnic minorities to view Moscow, rather than their local leaders, as the problem.
•Some observers are describing the events in Bashkortostan as a new “Black January,” a reference to the Soviet use of force in Azerbaijan in 1990 that many see as one of the triggers for the fall of the Soviet Union less than two years later.
•Bashkir and other non-Russian elites are growing increasingly offended by Vladimir Putin’s policy of Russification despite limited coverage in domestic media. Should Moscow continue on this course, these elites may join forces with the activists.

New 'Black January' in Bashkortostan Casts Ever-Darker Shadow - Jamestown Executive Summary: The Bashkirs are increasingly hearkening back to their heritage of resistance to the central government, leading other non-Russian ethnic minorities to view Moscow, rather than their local leaders, as the problem. Some observers are describing the events in Bashkortostan as a new....

Geopolitical Stakes High for Upcoming Georgian Elections

Zaal Anjaparidze for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia will sway the country either toward Europe or closer to Russia.
•Public opinion polls in Georgia show a divide among constituents, who have become drastically disillusioned with the current political parties and feel as though none of them truly represent their views.
•Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has warned about potential Russian interference in the elections, referring to Moscow’s ongoing occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Geopolitical Stakes High for Upcoming Georgian Elections - Jamestown Executive Summary: The upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia will sway the country either toward Europe or closer to Russia. Public opinion polls in Georgia show a divide among constituents, who have become drastically disillusioned with the current political parties and feel as though none of...

Cossack Youth Join In On ‘Breeding For War’

Richard Arnold for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
-Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war.
-New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula.
-Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming more frequent, with a focus on instilling the ideology of war in children’s minds.

Cossack Youth Join In On 'Breeding For War' - Jamestown Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young pe...

Russian Society Disfigured and Degraded by the ‘Long War’

Pavel Baev for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions.
•The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine European resolve. Those efforts have backfired and reinvigorated joint European efforts to support Ukraine.
•Ukraine, though battered, has shown unshakable resolve, while Russian stamina has decreased.

Russian Society Disfigured and Degraded by the 'Long War' - Jamestown Executive Summary: The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian succe...

Aliyev Wins Snap Presidential Election

Vasif Huseynov for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called for snap presidential elections to be held on February 7, citing the need for fresh elections following the restoration of the country’s territorial integrity over Karabakh.
•Aliyev faced little competition as he is perceived as widely popular after playing a leading role in restoring Baku’s full sovereignty over Karabakh.
•The president’s new term is expected to focus on the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process, opening the Zangezur Corridor, and recalibrating foreign policy—with a possible shift toward closer ties with Central Asia, the Persian Gulf region, and East Asia.

Aliyev Wins Snap Presidential Election - Jamestown Executive Summary: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called for snap presidential elections to be held on February 7, citing the need for fresh elections following the restoration of the country’s territorial integrity over Karabakh. Aliyev faced little competition as he is perceived as widely po...

Iranian-Russian Alliance Deepens Amid Global Conflicts

Taras Kuzio for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Iran and Russia have steadily strengthened their bilateral cooperation over the past couple of years, primarily based on the destruction of common adversaries, a shared ideological alignment, and expanded military collaboration.
•Tehran and Moscow have intensified their arms trade and technical assistance on defense matters, punctuating their strategic alignment.
•The Iranian-Russian alliance is rooted in historical myths and nationalist sentiments, particularly against neighboring countries, with the shared goal of countering Western dominance.

Iranian-Russian Alliance Deepens Amid Global Conflicts - Jamestown Executive Summary: Iran and Russia have steadily strengthened their bilateral cooperation over the past couple of years, primarily based on the destruction of common adversaries, a shared ideological alignment, and expanded military collaboration. Tehran and Moscow have intensified their arms trade....

Upcoming Elections in Belarus Highlight Autocratic Political Landscape

Ioffe Grigory for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The upcoming Belarusian elections highlight a political landscape dominated by a few parties that support the existing regime in Minsk amid criticism of limited political alternatives and a lack of international observers.
•President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s emphasis on generational change raises speculation about succession, while efforts to reinforce vigilance against foreign interference persist.
•Significant positive change in Belarus’s political system will likely be contingent on a broader decline in confrontation across Europe.

Upcoming Elections in Belarus Highlight Autocratic Political Landscape - Jamestown Executive Summary: The upcoming Belarusian elections highlight a political landscape dominated by a few parties that support the existing regime in Minsk amid criticism of limited political alternatives and a lack of international observers. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s emphasis on generation...

The Kremlin Feared Navalny in Life and Continues to Fear Him in Death (Part Two)

Kseniya "Kassie" Kirillova for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The inconsistent explanations of Russian propagandists for Alexei Navalny’s death underscore the Kremlin’s culpability.
•Silence and a lack of coverage from some prominent propagandists suggest that Moscow fears drawing too much attention to the oppositionist’s death.
•The Kremlin’s increasing repressions cannot hide growing domestic problems. Russians will likely intensify their focus on the country’s internal issues—presenting a potential threat to the Putin regime and a possible opening for the opposition.

The Kremlin Feared Navalny in Life and Continues to Fear Him in Death (Part Two) - Jamestown (Part One) Executive Summary: The inconsistent explanations of Russian propagandists for Alexei Navalny’s death underscore the Kremlin’s culpability. Silence and a lack of coverage from some prominent propagandists suggest that Moscow fears drawing too much attention to the oppositionist’s dea...

Putin Pushes to Call All Russian Residents ‘Russkiye’: Word for Ethnic Nation

Paul Goble for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•The Russian language uses two words for “Russian.” One primarily denotes Russian ethnicity, and the other usually refers to citizens of the Russian Federation (regardless of their ethnicity).
•Due to a decline in residents declaring themselves as ethnic Russians and a desire to unify the country around himself, Vladimir Putin is calling for a shift from the political to ethnic definition, a dangerous move in a multinational country.
•This may lead ethnic Russians to become more divisive, distancing themselves from Moscow and viewing the Kremlin as their enemy.

Putin Pushes to Call All Russian Residents 'Russkiye': Word for Ethnic Nation - Jamestown Executive Summary: The Russian language uses two words for “Russian.” One primarily denotes Russian ethnicity, and the other usually refers to citizens of the Russian Federation (regardless of their ethnicity). Due to a decline in residents declaring themselves as ethnic Russians and a desire to...

Russia’s Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker

Pavel Baev for Eurasia Daily Monitor

Executive Summary:
•Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia.
•The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets.
•Navalny’s murder signifies that the little potential that existed for peace talks with Moscow has evaporated, the fall of Vladimir Putin’s regime is not imminent, and Ukrainian victory may be the best hope for change in Russia.

Russia's Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker - Jamestown Executive Summary: Alexei Navalny’s death may spur the West to take more decisive actions against Russia. The US House of Representatives may now be pressured to pass the $95 billion package for aid to Ukraine, and Western governments may consider seizing foreign-held Russian assets. Navalny’s m...