09/06/2026
FALL 2026 OUTLOOK: Given that we are now in Meteorological Fall, and the Fall Equinox is only 16 days away, I figured it was time to start talking about what kind of weather the season may bring. Image 1: A lot of it is going to be driven by El Nino which is abnormal warming of the Equatorial Pacific outlined in black. El Nino is record strong this year with anomalies off the chart of over +5 degrees C. It's actually warmer than that, it's just this scale only goes to +5. It's also notable that the oceans as a whole are running well above average outside the El Nino region. Image 2: The El Nino is forecast to peak by December according to the CFS Climate model, then weakening into the Winter and Spring of 2027. What kind of weather might it bring? Well, I have been asked this a few times. Image 3: This is the ECMWF forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov which is the average of the 3 months. The consensus is wetter than normal conditions across the south and parts of our area slightly wetter than average. This doesn't mean it will rain every day. It just means a bit rainier than average. Image 4: Temperatures from the ECMWF are above average. This is indicated by the yellow and orange colors. It doesn't mean every day will be hot or warmer, it just means the season as a whole will be warmer than average. Image 5: The CFS Climate model is indicating the same as far as rainfall. Above average in the green. Image 6: Also the CFS is predicting above normal temperatures. So, the consensus in our climate models is a warmer than normal and rainier than normal Fall. Doesn't mean it will be right, but thats what the data is showing. Image 7 and 8: What about Hurricane Season? So far the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season is the quietest in the satellite era. This is largely due to El Nino causing increased wind shear. With that said, given El Nino is record strong, wind shear is also record strong across the Atlantic. Wind shear destroys hurricane development and prevents it. The blue tracks on image 8 show you tropical storms, but no hurricanes for 2026 so far. El Nino is showing potential to cause the 2026 hurricane season to feature 0 hurricanes and it would be the first time this has happened in the Satellite Era. The last season with 0 hurricanes was 1914. However, Hurricane Season does not end until November 30th.