08/19/2026
Tonight the board adopted a $769 million budget and a lower tax rate. Here's what that decision actually means for taxpayers.
First, I voted against lowering the rate, not because I want people to pay more, but because the numbers we voted on didn't hold together. I think you deserve to know what we're actually exposed to. A budget that closes to zero on paper for one year isn't the same thing as a district in good financial health.
The debt service fund is already short, and it just got shorter. Our own presentation showed a $6.2 million shortfall in debt service this year, even under the original proposal, but the revenue and shortfall figures we voted on still reflected the higher rate. The math presented to us didn't match the rate we adopted, on debt we are legally obligated to pay.
Property values missed the mark, badly. When we planned the 2023 bond program, we assumed 6% annual property value growth to support it. Actual growth this year: 0.58%. That's not a rounding error. Two years running, actual growth has come in far below what we planned for, and it directly affects how much room we have to cover both debt payments and day to day operations.
Three new campuses, flat enrollment. We're opening Arnold, Fowler, and Timber Mill High School. Projected enrollment is 72,800, essentially unchanged from last year. This means more buildings and higher fixed costs, with the same number of kids to fill them.
Next year is already harder, and we know it. Our own presentation flags a known funding reduction coming in 2027-28, when the district's Fast Growth Allotment status is likely to drop to Tier 2, and we do not have a plan for how we offset it.
Reserves are being used to paper over shortfalls, not fix them. Between debt service and child nutrition, we are drawing down fund balance (savings) this year to keep both funds afloat. That's a real tool, but it's not a permanent solution, and it's harder to use again next year if the same pressures are still there.
I didn't vote against this because I think Conroe families should pay more. I voted against it because I don't think we should adopt a budget where the numbers we're shown don't match the decision we're making. The debt service slide we voted on tonight includes a footnote that reads "Based on proposed tax rate of $0.2825," but the rate the board actually adopted was $0.2800. That means the $187.4 million in revenue, the $6.2 million shortfall, and the $17.1 million ending fund balance we were shown all reflect a rate that isn't the one we voted on.
Here's why this matters to families directly. Lowering the rate without replacing that revenue doesn't make our costs go away; it just shortens the amount of time before we have to cover them some other way. Debt payments and special education services are legally required, so those get funded no matter what. What typically gets cut first are the things without that legal protection: extracurriculars, elective courses, campus support staff like counselors and librarians, and deferred building maintenance. Our teachers already went without a raise this year, and the tighter our margins get, the harder it becomes to change that going forward. And if enrollment stays flat while we keep opening new campuses, the conversation about consolidating older schools moves from a distant possibility to a real one, sooner than it would have otherwise.
We need a multi-year financial forecast before we adopt any future budget, so we can see these pressures coming and plan for them, rather than pushing them off to a future vote and jeopardizing our district's financial health in the process.