04/26/2017
MWxI EARLY WARNING AND PREDICTION CENTER FOR METEOROLOGY
FORECASTER: WHITE
ISSUED 1530z
SYNOPSIS FOR THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, BRIEF
STAGE: CONVECTION
MODELS AGREEING- 2-3 (NAM, HRRR, GFS)
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE DAY. A WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PASS WITH MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER A REPORT OF LARGE HAIL OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THIS STORM SYSTEM DOES HAVE A HISTORY OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE IL/IN AREA CAN CONTINUE TO FEED THIS SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, THE NAM 3km AND HRRR MODELS ARE AGREEING IN THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A THICK AND LONG LIVED SQUALL.
WITH ANY SQUALL SYSTEM OR MCS, DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALWAYS THE MAIN THREAT. ON THE LEADING EDGE, A BRIEF "LINE-NADO" COULD SPIN UP, CAUSING WINDS TYPICALLY LESS THAN 100 MPH. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.