Faisal Saeed Al Mutar

08/08/2026

Today is the anniversary of the Iraq - Iran war, one of the most brutal wars in moden history.

Saddam Hussein at the time called it "Victory day" and it was a holiday in Iraq until 2003.

An estimated 500,000 to over 1,000,000 people died during the eight-year war with no real victory on either side.

Ironically, Israel was supporting Iran during that war with extensive weaponry and technology because it viewed Iraq as a larger threat and the United States was supporting Iraq (which it later invaded).

In hindsight, Saddam was correct to observe than the regime in Iran wanted to occupy and export its revolution to Iraq (as we are seeing right now) but also in hindsight, trying to have a war with a country three times the size of yours with a massive ideological core was a very stupid idea.

The war is forgotten but the suffering never stopped.

07/31/2026

People don't read anymore.

And people in policy read less.

Seven years ago, the Arab Barometer found that 70% of young Moroccans wanted to leave their own country.

70%!!! This is how terrible life is over there.

Morocco is not just a place you take your 3rd girlfriend to.

There is more to the country that a fancy hotel in Markesh.

Youth unemployment in Morocco is like 35%

In the US, it's about 9% just for reference.

Which is already really bad.

None of this was hidden. The data is public. The trends were obvious.

And is acting "surprised'!

This was entirely predictable.

07/23/2026

Three scenarios after the Houthis entered the US - Iran war and oil hit $98 a barrel.

1. The economic pain becomes too much. The U.S. decides that protecting global energy markets is now more important than continuing the war, and pushes for an off-ramp.

2. Iran is playing one of its last cards. Hezbollah in Lebanon is weakened. Syria is gone. Iraqi militias are unreliable and lazy.

That leaves the Houthis. If that's true, expect Iran to maximize the economic damage before negotiations and it means they are in a really bad place.

3. Nobody blinks. Both sides keep escalating despite the costs, I think this is the least likely scenario but I can always be wrong.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

07/22/2026

On September 1, I'll be opening for Steven Pinker in New York City!!!!

Honored to be delivering the opening remarks for An Evening with Steven Pinker at the Palladium Times Square, 7:00 PM ET. Steven has been a steady supporter of Ideas Beyond Borders and a beloved member of our board, donating both the rights and his own funds to bring works like Rationality and Enlightenment Now into Arabic for readers across the MENA region.

Can't wait!!

Get your tickets here:

https://us.thinkable.events/steven-pinker.../new-york-city/

07/21/2026

Going live today at 1:00 PM EDT with Jacqueline Cole on her Substack, Iran War Dispatches. The topic: "The Gulf Under Fire: Iran War This Week."
We'll talk about what's actually happening on the ground, how the war is being felt across the region, and the kind of perspective we work to bring through Middle East Uncovered. Tune in on the Substack app.

https://substack.com/live-stream/288018

07/18/2026

Where are we, war-wise, in the Middle East between Iran, Israel, and the United States?

Short answer: It's really bad.

Long answer: Targeting civilian infrastructure has now become the norm. Iran has attacked Kuwait's water desalination facilities and electricity infrastructure.

The United States has struck bridges and airports.

I think we've now entered the phase where the goal is to inflict the maximum possible cost in order to gain leverage at the negotiating table.

The countries suffering the most are the Gulf states because they have the most to lose. They have spent the past 40 to 50 years investing in economic development, only to watch infrastructure going to waste.

07/17/2026

Why did Trump warmly receive Iraq's new prime minister despite his ties to the Coordination Framework and Iran?

My argument: Trump isn't betting on Iraq. He's betting on the mercenariness of Iraq's political elite.

The wager is that Iraqi politicians ultimately value wealth, power, and access to global markets more than permanent loyalty to Tehran.

If that's true, Washington may have found a more realistic strategy than two decades of trying to remake Iraq.

My latest article: "Trump Is Betting on the Mercenariness of Iraqi Politicians."

The White House is testing whether Iraq’s Iran-linked political establishment can be persuaded to serve Baghdad instead of Tehran. Time will tell whether its mercenary elite can be won over.

07/15/2026

Reports about attacks on US bases in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, a day after President Trump met with the Iraqi prime minister Al Zaidi, who was chosen by the militias in Iraq.

So I guess the meeting didn't go well?

07/13/2026

Since the beginning of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, I have tried to approach the conflict differently from many of the voices dominating social media, television panels, and political debates. Rather than begin with the outcome I wanted, I tried to stay loyal to the facts, even when they were unpopular or inconvenient.

My colleague’s and my work through Ideas Beyond Borders is grounded in the belief that societies in the region can become freer, more open, and more prosperous. Those values matter deeply to me and are the reason I have dedicated my entire professional life to this work. But believing in freedom and the painstaking work it takes to bring it to fruition does not exempt us from confronting reality. On the contrary, anyone serious about changing the world has an obligation to understand it as it is.

07/08/2026

I really hate being the guy who says, “I told you so,” especially when so many people’s lives are on the line.

But when I first heard about the MOU, my first question was simple: did the United States make a deal with the right people?

Iran has a civilian government and a revolutionary government. The second is far more powerful than the first. And when I saw their rhetoric in the media, I immediately knew something was off.

Yesterday, they accused Saudi Arabia of killing the Ayatollah on live TV on Al Jazeera, and claimed that the entire Strait of Hormuz belongs to them.

If the Iranian regime were even 10% rational, it would not attack Saudi and Qatari ships. These are two countries that sent delegations to the Ayotllah funeral. The regime was also benefiting significantly from the MOU. In fact, many analysts described the MOU as something close to a surrender document from the United States.

Yet instead of understanding that privilege, the revolutionary mindset kicked in. They convinced themselves they had the upper hand, when they obviously did not.

For some of us, this was predictable. Regimes like this often start believing their own propaganda. They do not live in the same reality as everyone else.