08/26/2026
So where are we now, war-wise, when it comes to Iran?
For many people, the fact that we even have to ask, “Is the U.S. winning?” is already a sign that it probably isn’t.
And they are probably right.
I’ve been thinking about this for the past six months, and I haven’t come to the most optimistic conclusion.
The bigger problem is that the U.S. still hasn’t clearly defined what success actually looks like, which is a major problem.
SO here is one of my more controversial opinions for those delusional commentators on the subject.
First, did people really believe that Iran, a country governed for 47 years by a revolutionary Shia theocratic system, was somehow going to become a liberal democracy overnight?
Really?
Did they buy into this romantic myth that Iranians are uniquely “civilized,” unlike their “Ayrab” neighbors?
Do you really think Iranian political culture is so completely detached from the rest of the region?
Are they aliens? I have heard people like Sam Harris and Bill Maher make this ridiculous argument.
Second, the Islamic Republic has been in power for 47 years. Most Iranians alive today were born under this system. They went to schools built by this system, watched media shaped by it, and grew up inside institutions it created.
They didn't go to UCLA and live in Beverly Hills.
Courageous anti-regime Iranians exist, and I have enormous respect for them.
But I have yet to see convincing evidence that they represent an overwhelming majority INSIDE Iran with a shared vision for what comes next.
Betting an entire postwar strategy on the assumption that “young Iranians are liberal” sounds wonderful on social media.
As statecraft, it is an extraordinary gamble; yes, I support the US taking it; it's worth trying at least up to five times, and I think we are at attempt #4, getting closer to 5.
Third, I don’t think the region wants a recreation of Shah-era Iran either (except one country)
And as an Arab (Which is my bias), I think we should be honest about that history.
The Shah did not exactly treat his Arab neighbors with respect. Iran seized islands claimed by Arab states, and Arabs in places like Ahvaz have long complained of discrimination and repression.
So the Arab problem with Iranian power did not begin in 1979.
That history matters, especially when some Iranian opposition talk about Arabs as if they are intellectually or culturally inferior.
Look around the Gulf today.
Dubai, Doha, Manama, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Jeddah have built globally connected cities, diversified economies and institutions that millions of people actively choose to move to.
So the next time an Iranian nationalist explains to Arabs how uniquely “civilized” Iran is, perhaps some humility is in order.
Your country is the one trying to destroy Gulf Arab countries, so if the Gulf countries fall behind, it is entirely the fault of Iran.
Israel bombed Qatar once, and that was stupid, and they stopped doing it again, and I hope they stop bombing Syria also.
Iran attacked Gulf countries with 1000s of rockets.
Yes, the current Islamic Republic is far worse.
Cancer is worse than AIDS.
But saying one terrible option is preferable to an even worse one does not suddenly make the first option good.
Which brings me to the fourth point: I have very little interest in “Make Iran Great Again.”
I don’t want a “great Iran." to be honest.
A great Iran, in the geopolitical sense, could look a lot like a great Russia: good for the people dreaming about imperial glory, and potentially terrible for everyone else.
The question should be how to make Iran NORMAL, not "great again".
And that is far beyond what Trump, the United States, or any foreign power can do.
You can destroy military infrastructure.
You can weaken the IRGC.
You can kill commanders.
But if you cannot answer the basic question of what political order comes next, military success does not become political success.
Making Iran “normal” is a generational project; there is no magic here.
Trump cannot do it.
America cannot do it.
Bombing a country won't switch it.
So yes, increasingly, I think this was a failed war from the start.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
