CIMSS

09/02/2026

Hurricane Lowell is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 135 knots/155 mph. The storm is on the verge of reaching Category 5 with some satellite estimates already at that level including the CIMSS ADT and the microwave AI method the D-MINT algorithm. The storm is following a fairly classic track for storms in this region from east to west. Other major hurricanes that have passed through this are are shown below. Note there is one exception in this plot, Hurricane Iniki in 1992 that turned sharply north. NOAA is sending aircraft to the region for both research and monitoring of the storm starting today. One goal will be to sample the atmosphere north of the storm to see if a turn to the north toward Hawaii is possible as some models show. Right now it is too early to say. About as many models go west as do turn north. Such bifurcations in track forecasts are common at longer forecast ranges and represent an area of research focus in order to understand and reduce these uncertainties. If you would like to see where other historical storms have occurred maybe where you live you can do so using this very handy tool:

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ =4/32/-80

09/01/2026

Tropical Storm Edouard is making landfall near the Louisiana/Texas border with potentially damaging wind gusts, minor coastal flooding and perhaps several inches of rain even far inland. The system is a tiny storm in terms of it's size with the core of the storm only about 50 miles across. Contrast this with the larger storms Lowell, Karina and Marie in the Eastern Pacific (a region where on average storms are smaller). It is important to remember that storm size is not related to storm intensity. Tropical cyclones can be large but weak or compact and strong. Cyclone Tracy was about the size of Edouard and hit Darwin, Australia in 1974 with sustained winds of 110 mph. Two storms of the same intensity may have very different impacts because of their size. Larger storms tend to produce larger areas of damage from winds and especially from storm surge. Communicating the threat of each storm can be a challenge as many in the public tend to focus on the Saffir-Simpson category alone. This is why it is important to listen to the actual warnings issued for your area regardless of that storm category or whether the center of the storm will pass close to you. The National Hurricane Center is providing experimental warnings this season to try to improve threat impacts communication. For example you can see that for Edouard the tropical storm warnings do not stop at the coast but extend inland to counties away from the coast. As noted the rainfall threat will extend far inland as well.

09/01/2026

A targeted Moderate Risk has been issued for rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Edouard as it approaches the upper Texas coast and moves inland this afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall of 6"+ may lead to scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding.

08/31/2026

Does every hurricane develop an eye? Ask the Weather Guys!

Seen from space, a hurricane appears as a vast spiral of clouds stretching across hundreds of miles. Near the center of strong hurricanes is the eye, a roughly circular region of comparatively calm weather, light winds, and low pressure.The eye is one of the storm's most recognizable features, but i...

08/31/2026

Listen to the Weather Guys from 12-1 today on the Wisconsin Public Radio's Lee Rayburn Show:

Listen to The Lee Rayburn Show on WPR, Wisconsin’s midday call-in program featuring expert guests, listener questions and practical conversations about everyday life.

08/31/2026

The National Hurricane Center has started advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 just off the coast of Louisiana. The system has been slowly organizing the last few days with increasing convection. This morning a scatterometer pass from the OCEANSAT scatterometer indicated that the circulation has become nearly closed. Aircraft reconnaissance are currently flying the system now to determine if it is more organized. The data show it is close to becoming a TC. Tropical Storm watches have been issued for the LA/TX coast in anticipation of the system strengthening.

08/30/2026

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are moving through the US Virgin Island and Puerto Rico bringing beneficial rains. Much of the region is in extreme drought conditions so these rains should help some. Dry conditions are the result of the ongoing strong El Nino which suppresses tropical wave activity in the Atlantic which can bring regular rainfall to the region. No development of this wave is expected in the next few days however conditions might become favorable for some development later next week as the system moves westward.

08/27/2026

With the naming of tropical storms Lowell and Karina in the Eastern Pacific it has become quite busy across the tropics. There are now storms in the Atlantic (Dolly), Central Pacific (Lala), Eastern Pacific (Lowell and Karina) and Western Pacific (Saudel, 20W and Etau). Etau and 20W are quite close together and likely to undergo a Fujiwara interaction.

08/27/2026

This is a crazy coincidence. So much so the National Hurricane Center had to call it out in their forecast discussion.

"The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996."

08/24/2026

Is it dangerous to fly through a thunderstorm? Ask the Weather Guys!

Thunderstorms pose several hazards, whether you are on the ground or in the air, namely lightning, hail, turbulence, icing, downbursts and even tornadoes. Because of these potential hazards, planes don’t fly through thunderstorms. Instead, they fly around them.Pilots have onboard weather radar and...