CIMSS

Our product that helps identify Saharan Air Layer events showed up in this story below. This is the time of year that these outbreaks can make it into the US causing respiratory issues. NASA's GEOS model that can show the transport of dust indicates that a more significant plume of dust will impact Florida in about 5 days then Texas next week. These events also mark very dry air that tends to suppress hurricane activity. MSN

Massive cloud of Saharan dust set to engulf parts of the US in days with lung-penetrating particles A giant dust plume from the Sahara Desert is making landfall in the US in the coming days. The plume is carrying fine particles that can cause health issues when breathed in.

How does wind shear affect thunderstorm development? Ask the Weather Guys!

What causes a thunderstorm? Thunderstorm development requires three basic ingredients: moisture, unstable air and upward motion.Moisture comes from regions like oceans, lakes and vegetation that provide the water v***r necessary for cloud formation and precipitation. Continue reading →

The first Atlantic storm of the season has formed with Tropical Storm Arthur. Sustained winds are 45 mph mainly in the heavy thunderstorm activity that located well to the east of the center. The poorly organized center seen via visible satellite imagery is right along the Texas coast. Note there is not much thunderstorm activity associated with that swirl of clouds. Station KGVW an oil platform off the coast of Galveston has reported hurricane force wind gusts though the anemometer is higher than the standard 10 meters at 37 meters. The primary threat with this system continues to be heavy rainfall and a tornado threat.

While the Atlantic is expected to have below normal activity this year the Eastern Pacific should be quite active with the strong El Nino aiding development and storm intensity there. This could manifest in an increased threat of impacts to the Southwest US. Storms that more directly impact California tend to occur during strong El Nino years. The Eastern Pacific has already racked up three tropical storms so far.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/index.shtml

The National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The area of low pressure is currently over Southern Texas but could move over water today and intensify. The primary threat from this storm will be very heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast area and the possibility of tornadoes. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Are daily forecasts affected by climate change? Ask the Weather Guys!

Are daily weather forecasts affected by climate change? A friend of ours recently asked whether the accuracy of day-to-day forecasts of weather is affected by climate change. This is a very interesting question whose answer helps to further elucidate the difference between climate and weather.As it turns out, predictions of the coming weather are nearly....

What are the predictions for this hurricane season? Ask the Weather Guys!

What is the prediction for the 2026 hurricane season? Tropical cyclones are large, whirling storms that obtain their energy from warm ocean waters.Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface wind speeds of less than 39 miles per hour are called tropical depressions. Those with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher are called tropical storms....

The forecast for D-Day turned the tide of history:

How important was the weather forecast on D-Day? D-Day was the name given to the June 6, 1944, invasion of the beaches at Normandy in northern France by troops of the Allied Forces during World War II. The goal was to cross the narrow, often stormy, English Channel into Nazi-occupied France.The successful D-Day invasion required a combination of e...

What are the dangers associated with fire weather? Ask the Weather Guys!

What is fire weather? Wildfires need three essential elements: heat, oxygen and dry fuel. Fire weather refers to a mix of meteorological conditions that make it easy for wildfires to ignite and spread quickly. The main weather factors are low humidity, strong winds, warm temperatures and atmospheric instability.When humi...