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Lake Arrowhead weather hobbyist since 1985. I do what I do because I love it, whether i'm right or wrong. I would call them every day. We can try though!

My goal is to create a page for people who are passionate about meteorology, or any form of atmospheric science for that matter. The title of a forecaster can be a foolhardy title these days, especially since mother nature can be so unpredictable. My name is Michael Feldman and I have been a weather hobbyist (Snow Geek) since shortly after I could read. Remember (mountain folks) watching that blue

screen on (what channel was it?) waiting for that little cursor to appear to tell us if it was a snow day or not. In the background was the sound of NOAA weather radio; The National Weather Service, Oxnard. If you were patient enough to listen to the entire recording, they would provide a phone number. Then came the long distance phone charges. I still remember it like it was yesterday. Ok, Ok, I may have been one of the only ones to do that...and if you didn't grow up in the San Bernardino Mountains in the mid 80's...you surely have no clue what i'm talking about. But we're here to talk about the weather, so let's get back to it. Forecasting weather is basically just an educated guess. We all depend on computer models, satellite pictures, weather soundings and radar to form a forecast. Trend is your friend in this science. Focusing on one geographical region can help too...as my 35 years experience being a weather nerd has been focused on the California west coast. I've seen a lot of storms come through...and I can tell you one thing...no matter how many you study, they will still surprise you with a curve ball. The soul of my dweebery is in the category of snow. One might think I live in the wrong part in the world for that...but the west coast is quite the snow machine above about 6,000ft-7,000ft elevation with the mighty Pacific Ocean out our front door. Therefore the majority of my posts will pertain to snow :)

02/20/2023

Highly impactful and potentially dangerous winter storm headed for California...SoCal mountain residents should prepare..

Snowfall forecasts are flying high and the buzz is buzzing about the incoming winter storms. Unlike other storms this winter, this weather pattern has some seriously cold air associated with it. In addition to cold air, the storm tracks look to take more of an over-water approach, which helps to feed more moisture into the storms. If all of these ingredients come together, the result is more or less snowmageddon for local mountain areas. I'll go into more details in the next couple days if this pattern continues to materialize...as this is just a warning. This could be a historical storm and the reason for this post is to bring awareness.

Keep an eye on the current forecast with the National Weather Service. Prepare for power outages and road closures in all mountain areas. We'll see how this all pans out! 5+ inches of water is forecasted by Saturday....which would fall as snow with widespread 5:1 to 10:1 snow to water ratios over the major mountain communities and perhaps over 12:1 at the higher elevations and ski resorts. That could be a lot of snow.
We'll see if snow level forecasts hold....
Currently projected to be between 2,000ft and as high as 4,500ft...

11/22/2022

Happy holidays fellow snow-goers, it looks like our turkeys will be followed by a change in the weather pattern…that to a cold and stormy one! It’s been a bit chillier than normal thus far this season. We also dealt with a powerhouse winter storm with torrential rains and damaging winds. I think it’s safe to say we’ve had an eventful fall so far. This alone gives me hope…as I always say, “trend is your friend in this science”. Do I believe we could see another Gulf of Alaska powerhouse storm? Yep. Next week? I don’t know about that. But, the pattern is changing to a cold and stormy one, with snow looking likely. What I like about next week is the MJO, which is forecasted to be in phase 7. This translates to a higher probability of unsettled weather for this time of year in our neck of the woods. This is a good teleconnection to use as a tool for forecasting longer-range. Taking a look at the GFS model, one would believe the storm next week to be moderate in size, with some decently cold air associated with it. Snow looks to be probable in all mountain communities, although amounts are not known yet. Snow levels look to get down to the 3500-4000 foot range which means good quality snow at the ski resorts. Additional opportunities for rain/snow are possible with next week’s pattern, which will be fun to watch evolve.

In the meantime, I hope everyone has a safe and happy thanksgiving. It’s safe to begin doing your snow dances, since the winter pattern will wait until after the holiday weekend concludes.

~SoCal snow geek 🤓

10/27/2022

It’s happening…
Commencing west coast trough in t-minus 6 days…

12/29/2021

California Nevada river forecast center:

Day 1-3 QPF (quantitive precipitation forecast) and freezing level for CRQC1 (Crest Park, near Rim of the world High School):

10am Wed - 4pm Wed:
0.31” water / 4,800ft freezing level

4pm Wed - 10pm Wed:
0.84” water / 5,200ft freezing level

10pm Wed - 4am Thu:
1.50” water / 5,600ft freezing level

4am thu - 10am thu:
1.05” water / 5,500ft freezing level

10am thu - 4pm thu:
0.60” water / 5,700ft freezing level

😳

Be safe everyone!!!

12/23/2021

Tis’ the day before Christmas eve and I wanted to make a little post before the atmospheric river deluges our state this afternoon through tomorrow morning. After the big rains, snow is looking more and more likely on Christmas Day for most of the southwest above 5,000ft elevation. A few inches has the possibility of piling up by Sunday which would sure make for a joyous holiday weekend…and a challenging holiday travel weekend. Amounts are still in speculation…this pattern is very difficult for any computer guidance to pin down…which led me to writing this post. I’ve read every weather discussion this morning from every National Weather Service office within the southwest united states. Still, they all sing the same tune of not knowing how the next week will pan out. Their confusions fall in the categories of how much precipitation we receive and timing of these potential storms. So, lets break down what is FOR SURE:

1. Persistent anomalous ridge of High Pressure parked between the Bering sea and the Gulf of Alaska

2. MJO is in phase 7, which translates to COLD stormy weather in the west and warm in the east.

The anchored ridge of high pressure in the north pacific is the driver which carves out a stationary long wave trough over the west coast. This kick ass pattern seemingly has no end in sight at the moment…lasting at least into the new year. My point is, even if the weather man can’t form a solid forecast for next week, the good news is that the ingredients are right. The players are on the field. With the storm conveyer belt directing storms down the west coast and cyclonically curving them directly over SoCal, snow storms will occur often. So let’s not get too focused on amounts and take a moment to thank mother nature for setting us up with this snow producing pattern. The next week will unfold as it wishes…and one thing is for sure: it’s gonna be COLD, it’s gonna rain and it’s gonna snow. AT THIS TIME, here are the forecasted timeframes for inclement weather:

-HEAVY RAIN tonight into Friday afternoon. Temps finally dropping Friday with some snow above 6,500ft.

-Colder storm on Christmas day, perhaps arriving later in the day and departing Sunday. A few inches of snow COULD be possible above about 5,000ft.

-Possible cold storm in the Monday or Tuesday timeframe (no idea on amounts yet, but its COLD, snow levels could fall below 4,500ft

-Possible storm in the Wednesday - New Years timeframe (continued cold)

-Epic cold new years weekend? We shall see.

Stay safe weather peeps. If skiing or snowboarding in the High Sierra this weekend and next week, make sure you ride with a buddy. Snow suffocation hazards will be very high. Some 7-8 feet will fall in some locations, with even more possible next week. Platinum powder will be the cherry on top of the wet sierra cement falling at the moment. The cold temps will deliver dry powder next week, making for probably the best holiday skiing and snowboarding in a very long time. Props to IKON Pass holders!!

Brought to you by:
SoCal Snow Geek🤓☃

12/21/2021

Happy Holidays weather peeps!
Cold and stormy pattern will continue into the New Year…

The last storm was a real showoff in regards to winds and was a total bust in regards to snow. A few inches of snow and 10 feet of wind! But the water was incredibly beneficial for us. The storm sure didn’t skimp on that.

Our next storm is knocking on our door, but this one is much different than the one last week. The long wave trough is further off the coast, which has directed a river of subtropical moisture our way. This is similar to a �“pineapple express”, but not quite as warm. Snow will not form in southern California. But, all you luckies in the Sierra Nevada (high sierra) are in for it. The Sierra Nevada’s will receive copious amounts of snow this week.
Down here, rain will be the name of the game, with a healthy dose on tap. Widespread totals over 1 inch in the low lands and 2-4 (maybe 5 or 6 inches) in the San Bernardino and San Gabriel Mountains.

Sometime this weekend the snow level should start to come down... with another storm on tap for the holiday. This second storm is COLDER and HAS THE ABILITY TO BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS!! Current forecasts place the snow level between 5,000-7,000ft on average, and we’ll take it!! Accumulated totals are too difficult to pin down, but several inches is possible to fall, especially above 6,000ft. It’s important to note: The models are struggling with these fluctuating snow levels. Each day the outlook changes. Yesterday it was snow down to 4500ft xmas eve, this morning the forecast shows snow staying above 6500ft. What does this tell me? This tells me that we are dealing with Mother Nature and she doesn’t give a s**t about our computer models or highly intelligent Meteorologists lol. The forecast is going to change each day. But, one thing is for sure: The storm train shall be locked in place for the foreseeable future, feeding storms into our area rather often. As we progress into this pattern, the long wave trough will move further east, priming the flow from the Gulf of Alaska. So, storms should progressively become colder in nature and snow should accumulate at lower elevations than what we’ve seen so far.

So, all in all, this pattern is super conductive for colder, snow producing storms going well into the new year. How this unfolds will depend how these cold storms phase with the current Atmospheric Rivers forecasted for our area. All we need is a little patience..

I hope everyone has a wonderfully joyous and safe holiday. If traveling ANYWHERE on the west coast, make sure to check with the local NOAA weather offices at your destination. This winter storm pattern will cause MAJOR travel difficulties, road closures and chain requirements along many of the travel corridors.

Baby it’s cold outside 🎶

Brought to you by:
SoCal Snow Geek 🤓☃️

12/13/2021

**Evacuation Warning in place for Oak Glen, Angelus Oaks, Forest Falls, Yucaipa’s North Bench and Lytle creek due to imminent flash flood concerns below burn scars ***

Winter Storm Warnings, High Wind Warnings and Dangerous flood concerns! I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend, it’s time to get ready for a big storm. The big guy is just chillin’, slowly spinning off the West Coast. The northern half of the state woke up today in a similar fashion that we (SoCal) will wake to tomorrow. Pretty much all of California (and the West Coast for that matter) will deal with rain, snow and wind for the next 24-36hrs and beyond.

***Evacuation orders in place for Oak Glen, Angelus Oaks, Forest Falls, Yucaipa’s North Bench and Lytle creek***
I normally only talk about snow…but it’s going to rain a lot for you low-land folks. Anyone who has ever had prior issues with flooding should take precautions and perhaps use today to obtain sand bags and such. Rain rates will be high enough tomorrow for flooding. FOLKS BELOW BURN SCARS OR IN EVACUATION AREAS: This should be taken very seriously. An Evacuation Order means Immediate threat to life. This is a lawful order to leave NOW. The areas listed are lawfully closed to public access.

Seriously, be careful out there folks.

Ok, back to the SNOW:

Our first legitimate snow maker is proving no more challenging to pin down specifics than any other storm with southerly flow. This direction of flow becomes perpendicular to the East-West oriented mountain ranges of SoCal (San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains), which provides orographic lift and further potentiates the precipitation of a storm. It also, as the name suggests, pulls air from our south. Our storm is spinning counter-clockwise of course, with a powerful jet stream rounding it’s base. This will create the ingredients needed for strong southerly low-level flow during the onset of the storm. THIS is going to be the fly in the ointment in regard to snowfall during the first half of the storm. Even though there is a TON of cold air aloft entrained into the storm off the coast, the powerful southerly flow will absolutely raise snow levels initially. How much? Well, 750mb temps start above freezing tomorrow…which tells me even areas around 8,000ft may begin as rain. What in the hell is 750mb? 750mb represents an elevation, 9,882ft to be exact. It’s a great tool for deciphering snow levels. If it’s above freezing at the 9800ft level, that paints about a 9,000ft snow level. This observation pertains to the onset of the storm. But once things start getting going, the cold air comes crashing in and the snow levels will come down rather quickly. Once that temp at 750mb drops below freezing, the ski resorts will start to pile up snow. Then as the cold front approaches, the snow will begin to fall above about 5,000ft. This looks to occur Tuesday afternoon. Behind the cold front (Tuesday night-Wednesday morning), snow levels will fall below 4,000ft and the snow will be the lightest and fluffiest of the storm thus-far. Wednesday will be downright cold.

Of interest….the Sierra Nevada’s are going to receive yards of snowfall this week. Mammoth Mountain is expecting somewhere on the order of 8-10 feet by Friday.
Furthermore…the pattern looks to stay active beyond this week…
Next week it seems the Jet stream may favor the southern half of the state (that’s us!!) and more storms look likely. 2 storms of interest look to roll through next week…one being somewhere around Christmas (25th-26th??).

As I always say, take the long range with a grain of salt, but it’s important to note that confidence in the long range is higher than normal.

Stay safe out there folks!!
Enjoy the snow

12/09/2021

Storm #2 is upon us…
At 5:31am:
40 degrees in Lake Arrowhead @5,200ft
33 degrees in Green Valley Lake @7,000ft
Freezing level is currently above 7,000ft…but not by much. Colder air is on it’s way..

The main storm system is due to arrive in the greater Los Angeles areas just after sunrise, then reaching the Inland Empire by late morning or early afternoon. Pre-frontal showers have begun on the lower coastal slopes of the mountains at the time of this writing…but places like Big Bear are still clear, as they are still above the low level moisture deck. As the front gets closer going into the morning, mid level clouds and snowflakes should fill the Big Bear Valley. It will be a 4-6 hour event of steady precipitation, winding down quickly after it passes around late afternoon/early evening. The coldest air will quickly filter in at this time and this is when lower elevation mountain communities could receive snow if any showers develop.
Above 6,000ft is where you will find winter in it’s road-crippling state. Wrightwood, Running Springs, Green Valley Lake and Big Bear Lake should see mostly snow from this storm, with the possibility of a few inches accumulation. With this being the first actual snow storm of the season, roads will surely become a traffic jam. Do not attempt to drive into the higher elevations today unless you have a 4WD/AWD, REAL snow tires and lots of driving experience in the snow.

Tonight will be the coldest night so far this fall, with freezing temps common. Tomorrow and the weekend will be blustery and winter-like. All eyes to the elephant in the room lurking in the north-east Pacific…

The massive storm and associated atmospheric river due to arrive next week will be the most significant storm of the season thus far. This is of high confidence. High confidence also exists on copious amounts of precipitation we are expected to receive. It’s still looking like 1-3 inches in low lands and 3-5 inches in the mountains.
Less confidence exists in the amount of cold air that coincides with the heaviest rainfall. In other words, the weatherman is not sure if the lower mountains will receive heavy snowfall accumulations. On the other hand, higher elevations are going to get buried. If you live above 7,000ft, you’re in for a good old fashioned dump on the order of a couple feet of snow…if not more. A few feet will probably fall above 8,000ft. But what about mountain towns below 6,000ft? Will they pile up any snow? It’s absolutely possible, especially with the immense amount of cold air which will be associated with the storm. You see, most of this cold, arctic air will be near the storm’s center, which will be far north of the state of California. Big storm huh? We will be under the influence of the moist southwesterly flow for some time before it comes onshore…which is why the snow level is in question. Surely once the big storm finally makes landfall and all of that lovely modified arctic air is over-head, just about every mountain community will be receiving snow. But how much? This is why i’d like to do a full update this weekend. It’s too early to get into fine details! Pray for snow!

Brought to you by:
The Snow Geek🤓

12/07/2021

**SIGNIFICANT STORM POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK**

This week:

Storm #1 is upon us (writing this at 6:30am, Dec. 7th), giving us a small signal of what’s to come. It’s 42 degrees here in Lake Arrowhead (5,300ft), 37 in Big Bear and Green Valley Lake…so the snow level should be pretty high. Don’t think this little tease of a storm will deliver any snow short of a dusting at the top of the ski lifts perhaps.

Storm #2 is forecast to arrive Wednesday night and depart late Thursday night. The attached video illustrates the forecast through this timeframe. This storm is much more impressive than the first. It has a little more moisture and dynamics and should start things off nicely. Snow will begin to develop on Thursday as the colder air begins to arrive. Ski resorts should pick up anywhere from a couple to a few inches by Friday morning…with the snow level bottoming out somewhere around 5,000ft. Low land areas should pick up one-quarter to one-half inch of rain or so as well.

Storm # 3:

A cold, dry, winter like weekend will precede the largest storm of the season BY FAR. Still lots to iron out…but there’s a lot at play here…Deterministic ECMWF and GFS Model runs and almost all of the EPS, GEFS and CMC ensemble members continue to advertise a significant storm.

Monday of next week could be when the show begins. A massive low pressure will be digging off the coast early next week…with a ridiculous amount of cold, arctic, Alaskan air in it’s core. This is a big deal folks. My question is how far south will it dig…as of right now all of California looks to get clobbered…especially locations just to the north of SoCal. For instance…the Sierra Nevada’s. Snow will be tallied by the foot there..with snow falling at very low elevations. Mammoth should pick up a few feet or more. SoCal ski resorts should be celebrating as well, even if the coldest air doesn’t make it all the way down here. Snow will still fall at resort levels locally and this storm should really kick off the ski season (my guess is Snow Valley will open next week). I’m not discounting the possibility of low elevation snow in SoCal next week…as it’s very possible. It’s just a long ways away so it’s hard to speculate at this point to that detail. But one thing looks to be for sure…a very large and powerful winter storm will arrive next week. I’ll be watching it and will make a full update this weekend about this arctic gorilla.

Take this with a grain of salt:

Preliminary rainfall estimates next week for SoCal is in the range of 1-2 inches in low lands and 2-4 inches in the mountains below the snow level. Perhaps 1-2 feet or more of snow for the mountains…more time is needed to nail down snow levels but it’s important to note that all Rim communities could be effected by snow.

Yes, there’s more…

Storm #4, 5, ect:

The unsettled pattern should continue after next week and beyond into the Christmas holiday. This looks to be more of the same type of pattern, cold and stormy.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas 🎶

Brought to you by:
The Snow Geek 🤓

12/05/2021

Good morning to all of you snow geeks out there...
We are clear for launch, all systems ready.
Would you look at that snow simulation from now to 384hrs 🤩

Retrogression of the long wave trough will slowly but surely get things going. As the trough continues to move west, sooner or later the storm trajectory will become over-water...and some big boys should pound the west coast. Time frames for this brigade of storms look (at this time) to be the following:

Late Monday - Tuesday: This is NOT a large storm by any means....more of a cool down, a good marine layer (perhaps fog in the mountains) and maybe some marine layer induced drizzle for a short time.

Thursday - Friday: This is our first real shot at rain/snow. It's important to note that the trend was dryer today for this storm...but it's still a few days away. The snow level should come down to around 6,000ft, but most moisture will be gone by then. Still, hopefully the big bear ski resorts pick up something. Resorts from Mammoth and to the north will pick up a much more healthy accumulation during this timeframe.

Week 2... (Dec 12 - 17 ) Things should start to get very interesting...the storm door will be open and the storms will be coming in off the pacific as opposed to "inside slider" type storms the week before.

Fantasy land: (Christmas week)

Looks like more of the same. Lets hope the models keep singing the same tune, that's all I have to say! Always take long range forecasts with a grain of salt...
But the west coast could very well have a white Christmas...

Of interest: The GIF video attached is the GFS snowfall accumulation from today to 384hrs. It shows SEVERAL FEET of snow accumulating from the southern Sierra Nevada's clear to the Canadian Border Along the mountain crests 😳

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