01/18/2019
Last instacart order on the way and I will be all set!!! Puzzles, I needed puzzles 😊
Saturday, 1/19/19 11:00AM: This storm has taken an last-minute jog northward. For more information:
https://www.facebook.com/DaytonWeatherSpot/posts/2337670822934151?__xts__%5B0%5D=68.ARAEhA3Swp4OnT2OgB_LtVU061LJMp5oDB4vBL1swlxQm3ohj-yb6j2Y-cNz5Ashh_WKWWlZ2cDaQcXHdoAhs26ntqirLhQrPHgRSzHCUpMGkUCIB9qyNqcMcofTppbpeHpG3nP2A75Gs8iQtvg9z_BLJ1QUZe3HgowPHI3n9frkVqLj-rn2QOYbUEeeRn213J3HKt6b5Eg7zeNY3veAwtOzLPJ8TaotzZN4gLrAYmei7CYk1b4K76WmX1aA6GYNY5vXDBM8JD_gATxEACxa701CD_-iZjHPc4_IJyoVWPwGI2cuKprA3BoUT9T48XYBH4AbkUFDe3bx14AyuXjI6btENw&__tn__=K-R
ORIGINAL TEXT FOLLOWS...............
Friday, 1/18/19 4:30PM: You guys are either going to love me or hate me for this map. Last night's preliminary map was called just that, because as indicated, I expected changes to take place, and that those changes might involve the snowfall totals going upward or downward across the board. Well, you can probably tell by looking at this that they went upward.
The storm is now showing impressive snowfall totals once again,numbers similar to what I was seeing on Tuesday when I first warned you about it (remember that football analogy post?). Models had been weakening significantly over the last couple of days, but rebounded last night, agreed last night, agreed this morning, and still agree this afternoon. I've got to roll with what I see no matter how unbelievable the totals might seem.
So what happened? First, yesterday's storm didn't pull as much humidity out of the air as models were expecting, leaving more moisture for this one to drain out, and it simply must, given the temperatures are so cold behind it. Second, temperatures look to be a little lower area-wide than they did on models yesterday. Third, weather balloon data was not fully a part of the models at the time i made my previous map, and balloon data couldn't happen until the storm was fully onshore in California, which happened yesterday evening.
With wind, snow intensity, and duration on models showing blizzard or near-blizzard conditions, I am 70/30 in favor of seeing our Winter Storm Warning become a Blizzard Warning for parts or all of our area by tomorrow afternoon.
Snow will start in the early morning hours...around 12 hours from now and continue throughout our entire area until approximately 10 or 11 AM when rain will begin entering the picture in the five counties that mark the southern border of our coverage area. Rain should switch back to snow by 1 or 2 PM. Some rain could enter the southern edges of the deep blue areas, cutting a little bit into totals. Rain appears to last a little longer in Franklin (Indiana) and Butler Counties, which will reduce snowfall there. There is still some ice risk, mostly within the red oval, but I now believe it will be a "glazing" up to a couple of tenths of an inch--not enough to severely impact our area. The rest of the area should see all-snow all-day. Heavy snow! The far northern counties should see slightly less snow due to being farther from the heart of the storm.
Even if this storm is not upgraded to a blizzard, high winds and blowing snow will cause whiteout conditions at times, and should result in large snow drifts throughout our area. I strongly suspect that most counties will end up in a level 2 or 3 snow emergency, making it illegal to be on roadways except for under certain circumstances. As I warned on Tuesday, this storm appears to have the potential to pack a serious punch, and those who have not prepared have a limited time to do so.
There is still time for this picture to change, but I'm not anticipating much change. Models are showing the potential for 18" of snow or more in isolated spots, but it will be blowing so much that good measurements might be hard to take. I wish I hadn't played it as safe and conservative as I did on last night's map, but I had the duty to go with what I was seeing instead of what I felt might happen today, and that was a mistake. I believe this map will be much closer to what will actually happen. So there it is! I will not be able to give you numbers for any particular given town, and these ranges are as close as I can get. Any, "How much snow will "######x" get?" questions will be ignored so I can focus on addressing other issues. I appreciate your understanding! [Dan]
