Geoinformatics and Disaster Science Lab

Check out some press about our recent publication and the creation of a new lab at ETSU that will specifically focus on health geography issues. We'll likely create a new page for the Spatial Epidemiology and Medical Geography (SEMG) Lab soon!

New SEMG Lab at ETSU publishes first research As a result of an extensive, ongoing collaboration between three East Tennessee State University colleges, which has resulted in creation of a new research lab at the school, the ETSU Spatial Epidemiology and Medical Geography (SEMG) Lab has had its first COVID-19 research paper published in the Jou...

We haven't posted as much lately but we continue to update our dashboards. You can see from the pictures below that we are very close to our winter peak (surpassing it in a number of counties). did recently cross the 40% vaccinated threshold, with there being a moderate increase in the vaccination rate over the past several weeks. It's also informative to check out other data sources like this one from the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/tennessee-covid-cases.html

You can look at other states as well. The new reported case rates for Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi may be especially informative for Tennessee based on our many similarities. The Delta surge hit these states first and they appear to be coming down from their peak (although numbers are still very high). We're hoping to see the same trend soon for TN.

On a related note, our team recently had our first paper published from our research. You can check it out here: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/jah/vol3/iss3/2/ It's very interesting to see the numbers and rates from over a year ago during the initial outbreak, which is what this first paper was focused on. We have a second paper coming out next month that we will also share with you.

Dashboard Links:
TN (Desktop): https://arcg.is/00WbrT
TN (Mobile): https://arcg.is/19feCz
Central Blue Ridge: https://arcg.is/114r0m0

So happy to see ETSU's hazard mitigation plan in the news! And so proud of our students and staff that worked on the plan.

GADS Lab earns FEMA recognition The Geoinformatics and Disaster Science (GADS) Lab at East Tennessee State University has received national recognition from FEMA, being featured in the federal agency’s Mitigation Planning Success Stories series.

Check it out! FEMA chose our ETSU Hazard Mitigation Plan as one of their top "Mitigation Planning Success Stories" - you can see the article here: https://www.fema.gov/case-study/university-resources-produce-risk-reduction-tools

We are also now included on their Story Map in the Outreach, Engagement, and Equity tab: https://bit.ly/3hVnxBJ

"As members of the campus community, the GADS Lab is deeply connected with the university landscape. One of the essential products created by the lab during the plan development process was the ETSU GIS Open Data Hub. Risk and vulnerability assessments were not comprehensive before the data hub’s development. The GADS lab developed various useful tools, products and communication materials through the data hub including a story map for ETSU and Johnson City, Tennessee to share information on flood risks, previous flood events and current mitigation efforts."

University Resources Produce Risk Reduction Tools Universities are not required to complete hazard mitigation plans. Most do not, instead relying on and participating in their local jurisdiction or county plan. The county hazard mitigation plan covers a broad geographic area and did not have the level of detail needed to take all the university ass...

Our 'sister' lab, the Tennessee Climate Office (TCO) is co-hosting the first ever TN Climate Data Summit later this month (May 25-26). Check out the details below and register if you're interested. Share with others too!

Most trends are moving in a good direction across and the region with vaccines increasing and test positivity rates moving down in most counties. Vaccines are now available to anyone 12+ years old as well. Check out https://www.vaccines.gov/search/ to find vaccines near you.

We wanted to let you know about a data reporting change from the Tennessee Department of Health as well. You can read about it here:https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/health/documents/cedep/novel-coronavirus/Covid-19-Data-Update.pdf They are now providing data based on the date the case was added to their surveillance system instead of the date the case was reported. For now it appears that this also means there will be a 1-day lag in their datasets. If you check out our dashboards today (see links below), you will be looking at data from Tuesday (5/11). They will release Wednesday data (5/12) later today and we'll update our dashboards again later this evening or early tomorrow morning. We apologize for any confusion!

Looking at vaccination rates across Tennessee, there are 22 counties that have at least 30% of their total population vaccinated with 8 of those counties having over 35% of their total population vaccinated. Loudon County is leading the way and is the first county in the state with over 40% of their total population fully vaccinated. Most counties are seeing lower test positivity rates, although 16 counties continue to have double-digit test positivity rates (>10%) with Hawkins and Polk counties being above 15%.

Check out our dashboards for more info:

TN Mobile: http://arcg.is/1Xy8Xv
TN Desktop: http://arcg.is/er5OP
Regional: http://arcg.is/1fHLjq

Although we haven't been posting too much (spring semester is tough!), we continue to update our dashboards and create county threshold charts for the NE TN Health Department. Over the past month+ there's been a mixture of good and not-so-good news.

The good news: Vaccination rates continue to rise regionally and nationally, and vaccines are available in TN to everyone 16+. You can use this Vaccine Finder to schedule an appointment or just walk in at some locations: https://www.vaccines.gov/search/. The FDA will soon (likely next week) authorize the Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-15 (https://n.pr/3ujFAVL). And emergency use authorization for children 2-11 could come as early as September. Children represent a larger proportion of cases now than they ever have, but that mostly reflects a major reduction in cases amongst older age groups (https://n.pr/3eRC12n). A clear sign of how effective the vaccines are.

The not-so-good news: While vaccination rates continue to rise, uptake is slowing in some areas. The percent tests positive across Tennessee is decreasing in some areas (good, for example Washington County's % tests + is down to 10.5% after being above 17% a few weeks ago), but rising in others (not so good). Beyond TN and the USA, some countries are suffering from devastating case increases, especially India (https://n.pr/2POu4Tj). Global vaccination efforts have a very long way to go for a variety of reasons.

Overall, there are now 12 counties across Tennessee that have fully vaccinated over 30% of their entire population. Approximately 25% of Tennesseans are fully vaccinated and ~34% have received at least their first shot. This places TN in the bottom 5 compared to other states. When you look at the demographics a bit closer, almost 53% of eligible Tennesseans (16+) have received at least their first shot. Opening eligibility up to younger ages should help increase our rates some through the summer.

Some counties have seen cases increase recently, while others have seen case rates remain flat or decrease slightly. You can check out 7-day and 14-day rate charts for the eight NE TN counties below. Without a portion of our population vaccinated, it seems that we would likely be experiencing a major spring surge right now - most of the more transmissible variants have been found in our region (https://bit.ly/3b3Ggqz).

Another reason we wanted to post again is because the Tennessee Department of Health will no longer be providing daily Facebook updates, but they will continue to post their datasets (which is what we use, along with data from the NC Department of Health and Human Services and Virginia Department of Health, to update our Dashboards). Check out our dashboards below for more information. We are undergoing a data entry transition but hope to keep these updated daily or at least every other day (except on weekends when not all health departments release data).

TN Mobile: http://arcg.is/1Xy8Xv
TN Desktop: http://arcg.is/er5OP
Regional: http://arcg.is/1fHLjq

With more vaccinations this past week we continue to see an increase in county-level vaccination rates. Washington County (TN) is the first county in the state to cross the 15% threshold for full vaccination.

Top 10 for full vaccination: Washington (15.04%), Unicoi, Henry, Sullivan, Carroll, Madison, Van Buren, Benton, Crockett, McNairy

Top 10 for partial vaccination (all over 32%): Unicoi (36.59%), Washington, Van Buren, Henry, Madison, Loudon, Pickett, Carroll, Cumberland, Sullivan

Across there are 12 counties with less than 20% partial vaccination and 17 counties with less than 7% full vaccination. The state average (full vaccination) is 8.90% as of Tuesday, March 9th. Additionally, 73 counties now have test positivity rates below 10%.

Based on our 2-week snapshot maps, testing increases exceeded case increases in most counties over the most recent 2 week period compared to the previous 2 week period - definitely a good sign.

Let's hope these trends continue! Below are links to state-specific vaccination info:

For Tennesseans, you can find out more about vaccination phases, where to get vaccinated, etc. here: https://covid19.tn.gov/covid-19-vaccines/county-vaccine-information/

This is the site for Virginians: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/covid-19-vaccine/

And this is the site for North Carolinians: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/vaccines

Check out our maps, dashboards, and charts for more info!

TN Mobile: http://arcg.is/1Xy8Xv
TN Desktop: http://arcg.is/er5OP
Regional: http://arcg.is/1fHLjq
2-week Snapshots: https://arcg.is/1z0m4L

Check out our most recent updates - we've made some changes to our dashboards this week. We now have maps for Tennessee showing the percent of people fully vaccinated in each county (% Vac.) and we've updated our % Tests + map to show a 14-day average. As we progress through the spring, we think this will be a better indicator of any increases in cases/transmission. We'll be closely watching the % vaccinated as well, hoping for that to increase quickly.

I've included this week's threshold charts as well. You can see a general, slight decrease in most of our regional counties. There was an uptick in Johnson and Unicoi counties but they have also trended downward over the past few days. Most signals are encouraging but we'd like to see new case growth going down at a steadier rate. We don't want to plateau at current rates. New, more contagious variants are spreading in our area so please remain vigilant in the coming weeks.

For Tennesseans, you can find out more about vaccination phases, where to get vaccinated, etc. here: https://covid19.tn.gov/covid-19-vaccines/county-vaccine-information/

This is the site for Virginians: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/covid-19-vaccine/

And this is the site for North Carolinians: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/vaccines

We've updated our 2-week snapshots map series as well. In most counties, testing and case increases are comparable while in 21 counties testing has outpaced new case growth (a positive sign). A few counties show a larger case growth but this is mostly related to the quality control update from the Tennessee Department of Health in mid-February. For example, almost 200 cases were moved from Washington County to some of the surrounding counties (notably Carter County).

Check out our maps, dashboards, and charts for more info!

TN Mobile: http://arcg.is/1Xy8Xv
TN Desktop: http://arcg.is/er5OP
Regional: http://arcg.is/1fHLjq
2-week Snapshots: https://arcg.is/1z0m4L

Check out this week's updates for the 2-week snapshot and school thresholds. Our dashboards are also up-to-date as of the last Tennessee Department of Health data release yesterday afternoon. We're comfortable now stating that there is a clear decline in new cases across , except in Claiborne County. You can see this in multiple maps and charts. The 2-week snapshot shows that many counties reported a larger increase in tests compared to cases between the first 2 weeks of January and the the last 2 weeks, with Claiborne (~-37%) and Dickson (~-5%) being the only counties where new cases exceeded new tests over the two time periods.

You can also see the decline in cases in the Northeast Tennessee school threshold charts and the 2-week case increase comparison map. On The Daily podcast from the New York Times (https://nyti.ms/3ppqAD8), they discuss the possible reasons for the steep decline in cases across much of the country and what problems lie ahead that may reverse this trend (e.g., new and more transmissible variants, relaxation of social distancing and restrictions, slow rollout of vaccines, etc.). One of the interesting discussion points was the possibility that some areas may be reaching a level of herd immunity because of the combination of so many infections and the increase in those who have been vaccinated. Some more recent estimates are that the number of infections may be ~4 times higher than reported (~25 million cases have been reported, so ~100 million people may have already been (or are currently) infected in the US). And around 24 million people have had at least their first vaccine shot.

While this is good news, we must remain vigilant so that the downward trend continues. While new cases are going down, deaths are still rising (since those tend to lag by 3-4 weeks), and we will likely reach or surpass 500,000 known deaths by the end of February.

Stay safe everyone!

Regional: http://arcg.is/1fHLjq
TN Mobile: http://arcg.is/1Xy8Xv
TN Desktop: http://arcg.is/er5OP
2-Week Snapshots: https://arcg.is/1z0m4L
TN Pledge Map: http://arcg.is/1m8Lzm

East Tennessee State University Virginia Department of Health NC Department of Health and Human Services Tennessee Department of Health

We are so happy to announce that our 'sister lab' - the Tennessee Climate Office - has gained official state climate office recognition! Check out the article to learn more.

We'll post an update soon for the 2-week snapshots and school threshold charts.

Tennessee Climate Office The Tennessee Climate Office at East Tennessee State University, which has been fulfilling the basic responsibilities of a state climate office since its establishment in 2016, has been officially recognized by the American Association of State Climatologists.