03/14/2025
Simples, direto ... e preocupante.
Military Artificial Intelligence
By: Charles Horn
Since the atomic bomb, no technology has the potential to be as disruptive to warfare as artificial intelligence (AI). AI could deliver instant targeting solutions, develop high-powered offensive cyber capabilities, fly planes, and even make decisions on when to fire. The rapid development of military AI brings tremendous warfighting potential but could also introduce significant instability and danger.
Although the Department of Defense (DoD) has a storied and successful history of deploying increasingly advanced technology in war, AI and autonomous systems present unique challenges, from their lack of explainability in selecting courses of action to their sensitivity to the training data used in developing them. In a new report from Josh Wallin, he writes that as this technology’s development moves at breakneck pace among the United States and its adversaries, now is the time to establish a technically grounded and dynamic framework across the Joint Force to ensure the DoD continues its history of safe and effective deployment.
AI and autonomy have the potential to fundamentally change how wars are fought today and in the future. Already, these tools are rapidly being incorporated into military operations and planning processes, with AI-enabled targeting tools and autonomous drones altering the calculus in conflicts from Ukraine to the Red Sea. This initiative will explore how the United States and its key allies could employ military AI and autonomy in future conflict, the technical and policy changes needed to achieve future visions of AI-enabled combat, and how AI and autonomy may provide unique military advantages.
In recent years, the previous bipolar nuclear order led by the United States and Russia has given way to a more volatile tripolar one, as China has quantitatively and qualitatively built up its nuclear arsenal. Simultaneously, significant AI breakthroughs could inject new instability into this already rapidly shifting nuclear power structure. As Russia and China increasingly aim to modernize their nuclear arsenals and integrate AI into their militaries, it is essential for policymakers to be aware of the risks posed by the AI-nuclear nexus.
Working in coalitions, a particular strength of Western nations, depends on interoperability—the ability to conduct military operations together. While this has been difficult even before the recent boom in machine learning, AI and autonomy present new challenges that militaries will have to confront. As each country races to build up their own AI arsenal, now is a critical time to establish the foundations of this interoperability—before the real fight begins.
