09/04/2026
Alaska's fire seasons are changing — and new research from Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center scientists suggests there's more to come. Using temperature and precipitation data from five climate models, the team projects that as temperatures rise, the area of boreal forest burned each year in Alaska could more than double this century. The Arctic and western Alaska, where fire is less likely today, could see up to eight times more wildfire activity. And as fire pushes out spruce, Alaska's forests are likely to shift toward more deciduous trees like birch and aspen.
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More and larger fires, including in areas of historically low fire activity, are likely but not a given.