UAF Geophysical Institute

Curious to learn about a 2025 Alaska tsunami that reached the height of the World Trade Center? 🏙️

Join the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute and Explore Fairbanks for the first of our free Science for Alaska Summer Series talks!

🌊 Talk title: The 2025 Tracy Arm Landslide-Tsunami
🗣️ Presenter: Michael West, Alaska State Seismologist and director of the Alaska Earthquake Center
📆 Saturday, June 13, 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM
📍 Morris Thompson Cultural and Visitors Center
🛜 Streamed via Facebook Live .GI; in-person attendance is encouraged

Early morning on August 10, 2025, a mountainside collapsed in Tracy Arm, triggering a tsunami that raced up the opposite side of the fjord. Cruise ships had departed this very spot just 12 hours prior, and boats rode out smaller versions of this wave as it sped across the region at more than 100 mph.

This is just the latest example of a landslide hazard that appears to be increasing in frequency as glacier retreat and meteorological patterns continue to evolve.

Check the Facebook event for information on all Summer Series presentations, held every second Saturday from June through September: https://www.facebook.com/share/18yGnoQa8s/

Alaska Science Forum
No. 2,793
June 11, 2026

Time capsule: How to win the ice pool
By J.M. Miller and T.N. Davis

Note: This Alaska Science Forum “time capsule” article was originally published on May 1, 1976. While employed at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, John M. Miller was the Alaska SAR Facility’s technical director, and T. Neil Davis, professor of geophysics, founded the Alaska Science Forum 50 years ago. This time capsule is typical of the early columns, which were always tied to newsworthy events and often lighthearted, if not gently self-deprecating.

The Mather Library in UAF’s Akasofu Building houses many original supporting materials of this long-running column. At a time when one can use any number of online tools to help you select a date and time to win the next Nenana Ice Classic, the longtime betting game on when the Tanana River will break up, paging through hand-drawn graphs and typewritten drafts is true time travel.

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One sure way to win the Nenana Ice Classic is to invest $100,800 to buy 50,400 tickets, one on each minute from about April 18 to May 22. Someone else probably will win, too, so you will probably lose money.

If you believe in statistics at all (and who does?), you can use the diagram below to estimate the probability of having a winning ticket. This probability map is compiled on the basis of the actual breakup times from 1917 to 1975; the hour and day of each is shown on the map.

From these times, a bell-shaped curve was calculated to show the probability of breakup on any specified date. Calculation of the probability of breakups during a particular hour was accomplished by manually smoothing the data, since it appeared that the actual breakups did not, in the parlance of statisticians, follow a normal distribution.

Although a breakup has never occurred during the noon hour of May 6, the probability map says this is the best guess. In principle, such a ticket has 9.6 chances in 100,000 of winning. A ticket falling on the contour line labeled “1” has one chance in 100,000 of winning; one on the “0.1” line has only a chance in a million.

If you choose to ignore the probability contours, which is not a bad idea, you can still glean information from the numbers showing times of actual breakups.

One technique for picking a winning ticket combines both mathematics and skill. Hang the probability map on the wall then throw a dart at it aiming for the top of the “probability hill.” If you miss altogether, try another method.

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Since the late 1970s, the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute has provided the Alaska Science Forum column free in cooperation with the UAF research community.

It's a beautiful day in Fairbanks...to learn about the research happening at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute! Come join us for a free tour today, from 1-2:30 PM.

These 90-minute tours are offered every Wednesday through Labor Day. Bring your family and friends to learn about world-class Arctic research, chat with graduate students, and ask questions about earthquakes, nuclear monitoring, rocket launching, and what sort of data our iconic blue antenna collects.

📍Elvey Building entrance, 2156 Koyukuk Drive
⏱️ 1 p.m. Wednesdays, May 27-Sept. 2
🚗 Buy a UAF parking pass at the blue kiosk or online ($1.50/hr or $6/day): https://www.passportparking.com/

No tour registration is required, but please call 907-474-5229 in advance if bringing a large group. Tours are best for ages 12 and older.

Email [email protected] or visit online for more information: https://www.gi.alaska.edu/about/visitor-information

Alaska Earthquake Center
Poker Flat Research Range
Alaska Satellite Facility

The Geophysical Institute is excited to announce the lineup for our 3rd annual Science for Alaska Summer Series! ☀️

In partnership with Explore Fairbanks, the free SFA Summer Series talks will take place from June through September at the Morris Thompson Cultural and Visitors Center in downtown Fairbanks, 101 Dunkel St.

All talks take place on second Saturdays at 11:30 a.m.:

🌊 June 13: The 2025 Tracy Arm Landslide-Tsunami, Mike West
🌌 July 11: HAARP Facility Overview & Research, Evans Callis
❄️ August 8: Alaska's Cold Winter in a Warming Climate, Rick Thoman
🚀 September 12: Fire and Ice: Launching Rockets in Alaska, Kyle McAllen

Each talk will last 30-45 minutes with extended time for questions. As these presentations are geared towards the general public, they offer friends, family and visitors opportunities to attend and learn more about the science happening at the GI and the International Arctic Research Center.

For more about the talks, please reach out to coordinator Sara Wilbur ([email protected]) or visit the Science for Alaska website, https://www.gi.alaska.edu/events/science-for-alaska.

Alaska Science Forum
No. 2,792
June 4, 2026

A new Arctic partnership
By Sara Wilbur

UTQIAĠVIK, ALASKA — Colorful sticky notes and creased agendas fluttered to the floor as 40 or so people grabbed phones and rushed to the long series of windows. A polar bear had been spotted checking out a series of empty sled dog cages nearby.

Seeing the young bear, or “nanuq” in Iñupiaq, from the Barrow Arctic Research Center was a special highlight of the four-day Arctic ACTION Workshop. The workshop took place at the end of May in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, the northernmost community in the United States.

The bright sun — which will not set again until Aug. 2 — lit up the still-present snow but didn’t quite wash out the bear. A North Slope Borough Department of Wildlife Management staff member on a snowmachine soon nudged it away.

The workshop was convened to support the ACTION project. ACTION — Alaska Coastal Cooperative for Co-producing Transformative Ideas and Opportunities in the North — seeks ways for both Indigenous and Western knowledge to address flooding, erosion and permafrost thaw in eight Arctic coastal communities.

The project, funded by the National Science Foundation, is co-led by University of Alaska Fairbanks professor Chris Maio and a team of many — Indigenous and social scientists, oceanographers and permafrost researchers.

Community leaders in attendance included Utqiaġvik Mayor Asisaun Toovak, ACTION's tribal community research lead Jan Olson of Hooper Bay and Deva-Lynn Pokiak, community liaison officer for Tuktoyaktuk, Canada, among many others.

After landing in Utqiaġvik, I shuttled to my lodging, a series of gray steel shipping containers welded together and winterized by the oil company Shell in the early 2010s. Now owned by the Ukpeaġvik Iñupiat Corp., the Nanuq Den is one of many structures with a strong tie to the community’s research history.

Nearby Quonset huts, built by Naval Arctic Research Laboratory personnel in the 1940s, were initially constructed to support oil and gas exploration in the area. To better understand how humans, animals and plants survive in extreme Arctic conditions, NARL quickly added scientific research to its mission.

To support Western scientific research in the Arctic, NARL sought out the expertise of the local Indigenous community. This novel, more-equal partnership set a foundation for North Slope research that remains influential today.

The polar bear had ambled onto a nearby frozen lagoon by the time I met to chat with some ACTION participants about Utqiaġvik’s research history in one of the facility’s sea ice labs.

“They always called it the ‘NARL effect,’ where something about this piece of land and the facility brings people together, and you come up with solutions and ideas that would never happen otherwise,” said Ben Jones, a research associate professor at the UAF Institute of Northern Engineering.

“I see the same thing with ACTION…I call it the ‘ACTION effect.’”

After some quiet murmurings of appreciation and concurrence, Maio chimed in: “You can put my name on that one!”

ACTION is evolving from what NARL initiated, emphasizing Indigenous-led research driven by community priorities — not just what outside researchers are interested in learning.

Shauna BurnSilver, an environmental social scientist at Arizona State University and one of the ACTION co-leads, noted a statement shared during the workshop by Utqiaġvik’s mayor.

“The days of research being powered by outsiders are done,” Toovak said.

All of this reflects a significant shift in attitudes, but the work is far from over. Workshop participants emphasized that despite stronger partnerships and increased Indigenous leadership, there is still a gap between research and implementation — putting ACTION to action.

Part of this gap stems from a lack of communication between researchers and communities. In addition, decades of accumulated knowledge can be difficult for residents to access when seeking to build better on permafrost or construct effective sea walls.

My group in the sea ice lab resonated with this last challenge. A thought was shared that ACTION is really grappling with a “human problem,” one centered on communication rather than a lack of climate change data.

Social scientist BurnSilver readily agreed. “It’s not the carbon,” she said. “Carbon doesn’t talk back.”

As the workshop wrapped up, I occasionally glanced out the window at the young bear run-stumbling through the rotting snow, back toward the sea ice losing its grip on the land. The workshop closed after four days spent discussing a human problem — how people share knowledge and build trust to turn research into action — while outside, the silent force driving so many of those conversations continued to reshape the Arctic.

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Since the late 1970s, the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute has provided the Alaska Science Forum column free in cooperation with the UAF research community. Sara Wilbur is a communications coordinator for the Geophysical Institute public information office.

A fully loaded LC-130 military cargo plane capable of landing on snow and ice can weigh about 75 tons, including its maximum payload.

The ability to land that aircraft on a frozen Arctic lake is becoming less likely as a warming environment reduces the number of subfreezing days. That puts ice thickness below the minimum needed to support heavy aircraft.

Arctic lakes sometimes won’t reach that minimum thickness at all.

New research by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists and others says those changes present a growing challenge for Arctic logistics and security operations that have relied on those ice runways and travel corridors.

The work centered on Teshekpuk Lake, on Alaska’s Arctic Ocean coastline about 80 miles southeast of Utqiaġvik.

The findings were published in the spring edition of the Journal of Arctic Security, a publication of the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies. The center is part of the Department of Defense and is located on Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage.

Frozen Arctic lakes becoming less capable of supporting cargo aircraft | Geophysical Institute The ability to land a military cargo plane on a frozen Arctic lake is becoming less likely as a warming environment reduces the number of subfreezing days. That puts ice thickness below the minimum needed to support heavy aircraft.

Our sources think this photo of (left to right) Gene Westcott, Bob Merritt and Syun-Ichi Akasofu was taken some time around 1977, after completion of the Trans Alaska Pipeline. These long-term University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists and faculty members might be monitoring electrical current in a section of the pipeline where it is emerging from the ground, considering the devices they’re scrutinizing. Westcott was a professor of geophysics at UAF and the GI from 1958 to 1997. Merritt collaborated with scientists at the GI on many research projects though he was a professor of electrical engineering during his two stints at the university, from 1955-1966 and 1968-1987. And of course Syun-Ichi Akasofu rose through the ranks at the GI to the post of director and then he founded and was director of the International Arctic Research Center right next door. His active years over the course of all of those roles were 1958-2007, though he still has an office in the building that bears his name and we are sometimes graced with his presence at events.

It must have been a great day to be outdoors in the boreal forest of Interior Alaska because Westcott is feeding what appears to be a cracker to a fearless Grey Jay.

Do you know more about what’s going on in this photograph? Please let us know at [email protected]. Thanks to Kay Lawson and Sue Royston for the background information!