Mike the Meteorologist

Vernal equinox today! Spring Equinox 2026: Date & Exact Time (UTC) | First Day of Spring

First Day of Spring 2026: Spring (Vernal) Equinox Date & Exact Time When does spring begin in 2026? Why aren’t day and night truly equal on the vernal equinox? And why doesn’t it always fall on the same date? Find out here!

Eugene set a record high yesterday! We hit 78F which was 4 degrees above the record. Oddly, Eugene was pretty much the warmest place in Oregon. It stayed in the 60s in Portland. Also was weird that the forecast only called for a high in Eugene of 71.

Current and upcoming weather in the CONUS is wild! Record high temperatures around Virginia near 29C (84F) yesterday were replaced by cold air, and snow fell there today. In the Pacific NW, An atmospheric river has been feeding a lot of moisture, with blizzard conditions in the Washington Cascades. A major winter storm will affect the Great Lakes area too. But the big story coming up is the absurd heat that will develop in much of the West this weekend into next week. A super strong High Pressure system will develop. It will feel like the middle of Summer in many places, with temperatures over 39C (102F) in the desert Southwest, and even approaching 32C(90F) in Denver! We are technically still in Winter. Many places will have their all-time record March temperatures.

Total lunar eclipse tonight! Increasing clouds forecasted in the Pacific Northwest unfortunately, but if you're up at 3:30am, check it out.

New York City has been issued a rare blizzard warning tonight. This has been one of the most intense winters NYC has had in many years. They're expected to receive over a foot of snow. But it isn't the amount of snow that meets the criteria for a blizzard. A blizzard is more about whiteout conditions that last for a while. In particular, a blizzard in the USA is defined as a winter storm with sustained winds or frequent gusts over 35 mph with visibilities less than 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. This could be an intense few days for them as this "Nor'easter" moves through. A Nor'easter is a strong cyclonic storm that forms off the East Coast when cold air collides from the north with the relatively mild air over the Atlantic Ocean. The gulf stream is a warm current that moves northward, so sea surface temperatures stay fairly mild there, so air temperatures stay fairly mild all Winter too. The name "Nor'easter" is given because of the strong cold winds that reach land from the Northeast.

Here in Oregon, after an entire week of mild sunny Spring-like weather, the ridge of high pressure in the western USA will finally shift east. Tomorrow we'll return to cooler wet weather. There should be a decent amount of rain tomorrow eve into Sunday. It's looking dry again mid week, but the jet stream is looking more normal with a progressive pattern again.

Today is the highly scientific Groundhog Day! It marks the halfway point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. There are many climate forecasting rodents in the USA and Canada, but Punxsutawney Phil is the most well-known. Today, it was a sunny day for Phil, so it saw its shadow. Supposedly, this means six more weeks of winter. For those in Pennsylvania, that isn't good news, because it has been very cold out there. It's weird for us in the West, because it hasn't really been winter. How accurate has the groundhog been? Overall, they say he's been about 50% accurate. In the past ten years, he's only been right 3 years. How did this silliness get started? Ancient Celts used to celebrate this day of what was their first day of Spring, and they called it Imbolc. They would look for animals such as badgers or bears coming out of hibernation. Christians turned this pagan celebration into something called Candlemas. They would look for animals as well, but they settled for rodents. Supposedly, if it was sunny, rodents would return to their dens, because it signaled there were still about six more weeks of winter ahead. This likely has to do with arctic air being associated with clear skies. When German immigrants came to the Pennsylvania region around the 1800s, they brought this tradition with them. Eventually, in 1887, Punxsutawney's first official Groundhog Day celebration took place. Supposedly, the same groundhog has been doing it ever since; it never ages, because it's served an "elixir of life."

It has been quite the strange Winter. For most of the western CONUS, it has been warm and dry. Many places like Utah and Oregon are dealing with record low snowpacks. But in the eastern USA, winter has been one of the coldest in many years. Blasts of cold air have been reoccurring. New York City had 11 inches of snow last weekend, is on pace to stay below freezing for 12 days, and could get hit with a nor'easter could this weekend. Why the strange weather pattern? The movement of very cold air during the Winter is largely dependent on the Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There are areas of Low Pressure north of areas of High Pressure in these regions. When the pressure difference is great, strong West winds occur, and very cold air stays north in this regions. But if the pressure difference relaxes, cold air can come south. We've had strong upper level winds in the Western USA preventing cold air from dropping down, and weak upper level winds in the north Atlantic have allowed cold air to come down in the Eastern US. We'll have to see how this nor'easter pans out.

A major winter storm is shaping up in the southern CONUS (continental US) and will move up into the northeastern US. It's called Winter Storm Fern; maybe it originated in a forest somewhere :). A dip in the jet stream is allowing really cold air to head south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile a low pressure system near Baja California will move eastward. This will cause wintry precipitation to occur over a widespread area. Decent snow is expected, but the biggest problems will be freezing rain; it's hard to say where the most ice will occur. Freezing rain happens when a layer of moisture in above-freezing temperatures exists above a layer at the surface with below-freezing temperatures. This can occur when a dense cold layer settles somewhere, and then warmer less dense air moves in and rises above the cold layer. There will be places in warm weather environments that will experience temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit. Downed power lines and frozen pipes could be a big problem. The cold air is expected to hang around for a while, so it ain't looking great 'round those parts. They're also expecting a lot of snow around New York City, so we'll see how this all goes down.

It has certainly been a strange Winter. Snow falling in Florida over the weekend added to that. That makes two winters in a row with Florida snow. North America is in a prolonged period of a ridge of high pressure in the West and a deep trough in the East. Arctic air moved south in the East. Cold air will continue to push through the East ( not as far south though). So frigid weather in the central and northern Eastern US is forecasted for several days. Temperatures will be below zero F in many places

Winter in North America certainly hasn't been typical this year. The western USA has mostly been warm and dry, while the northeast has been colder than normal. The real cold has mostly been stuck up around Alaska. Alaska had below average temperatures in December, which means super frigid. A persistent ridge in the West and trough in the East has set up and will strengthen in the next week or so with Arctic air coming south. That means more mild and sun in the West but really cold in the East. The Bears game in Chicago on Sunday is looking frigid. The Rams aren't exactly used to that weather :) See the link in the comments about how the weather might affect the game.