Over the last 25 years, I have gained a great deal of experience in the agricultural commodity industry. I have witnessed market conditions in numerous areas of agriculture, from beef and pork processing, feeding livestock, to personally trading livestock and grain futures. Through my experiences, my passion for agriculture and the desire to learn more about the industry and markets has grown. Thi
s knowledge has also taught me that the markets are driven by human behavior and events, both of which are unpredictable and create uncertainty in agriculture. I believe that the users and producers of commodities give good insight into their fundamental view of the current market conditions. After my career working for a commercial meat packer, I was led to study the Commitment of Traders (COT) report that provided this insight for two reasons: one, that the users and producers of a commodity should have the most reliable view of the market fundamentals, and two, that man operates under the herd-mentality. After learning how to analyze the report, I wanted to develop a systematic model that visually displayed a unique way to look at the markets. I wanted to fully grasp an understanding of the hedging activity by the users and producers of a commodity and it’s price. This led to the development of my model – The Heat Map; a simple way of looking at the participants in the market and a level of predictability I could have confidence in. The results of my model indicated a strong correlation, meaning that as price moves higher, the selling of the commercial increases in relationship. I also discovered that as a price moves higher, it is good indication that the herd-mentality of man created it. Learn more about our story here http://www.theagfix.com/our-story.html
