National Bureau of Economic Research

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Documenting an increase in US income risk from 1969 to 2019, distinguishing permanent from transitory risk, from J. Cart...
09/01/2026

Documenting an increase in US income risk from 1969 to 2019, distinguishing permanent from transitory risk, from J. Carter Braxton, Kyle F. Herkenhoff, Chengdai Huang, Michael Nattinger, Jonathan L. Rothbaum, and Lawrence D.W. Schmidt https://www.nber.org/papers/w35664

Across seven work tasks, the LLM that performs best on its own is often not the one that best guides a weaker model, fro...
08/31/2026

Across seven work tasks, the LLM that performs best on its own is often not the one that best guides a weaker model, from Pattaraphon Kenny Wongchamcharoen, Kris Gulati, Min Min Fong, and Abhishek Nagaraj https://www.nber.org/papers/w35663

The most comprehensive fiscal policy to promote healthy diets had no detectable impact on the health of pregnant women a...
08/31/2026

The most comprehensive fiscal policy to promote healthy diets had no detectable impact on the health of pregnant women and newborn children, from John Cawley, Mallory Dreyer, and Kosali I. Simon https://www.nber.org/papers/w35662

US tariff shocks raise not only the average tariff but also its dispersion across goods, with sizable effects on imports...
08/31/2026

US tariff shocks raise not only the average tariff but also its dispersion across goods, with sizable effects on imports and the trade balance, from Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe https://www.nber.org/papers/w35661

After 2014 US cases, GOP messaging linking Ebola to immigration spiked most in safe seats, indicating signaling to their...
08/31/2026

After 2014 US cases, GOP messaging linking Ebola to immigration spiked most in safe seats, indicating signaling to their base, and did not follow the patterns of voters' anxiety, from Filipe R. Campante, Emilio Depetris-Chauvin, and Ruben Durante https://www.nber.org/papers/w35660

SNAP restrictions on sugary drinks reduced average SNAP’s household retail purchases of restricted drinks by 12.4 percen...
08/30/2026

SNAP restrictions on sugary drinks reduced average SNAP’s household retail purchases of restricted drinks by 12.4 percent, from Hunt Allcott, Amy Finkelstein, Anna Grummon, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo https://www.nber.org/papers/w35659

In Seattle school choice, mechanisms using preference intensities raise mean student welfare over a frontier ordinal mec...
08/30/2026

In Seattle school choice, mechanisms using preference intensities raise mean student welfare over a frontier ordinal mechanism and 74 percent of students prefer the cardinal assignment, from Hülya Eraslan, Jeremy T. Fox, and YingHua He https://www.nber.org/papers/w35658

Analyzing a large corpus of papers in international trade to document a shift in methodology from theoretical or empiric...
08/30/2026

Analyzing a large corpus of papers in international trade to document a shift in methodology from theoretical or empirical to quantitative modeling and assessing these developments, from David Atkin and Benjamin Faber https://www.nber.org/papers/w35657

How did culture evolve? What shaped the mosaic within and across societies? Ancestral migration, socioeconomic change, e...
08/30/2026

How did culture evolve? What shaped the mosaic within and across societies? Ancestral migration, socioeconomic change, ecological mismatch, and prehistoric diversity shaped adaptation, from Oded Galor, Marc Klemp, and Daniel C. Wainstock https://www.nber.org/papers/w35656

Cryptocurrency has become a channel for elite capture and diversion of financial aid provided to developing countries, w...
08/29/2026

Cryptocurrency has become a channel for elite capture and diversion of financial aid provided to developing countries, with implied leakage of 2 to 6 cents per aid dollar, from Sumit Agarwal, Peiyi Jin, Eswar S. Prasad, and Daniel Rabetti https://www.nber.org/papers/w35655

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