Provoking Posts

Fear that I would not be able to hug my Mom again. This is my motivation for writing this personal post. My Mother was found alone on the floor after being there for an estimated three days. Why? She had COVID-19. Doctors think that she didn’t realize that she had it and that it came on so fast that she passed out. [ 443 more words ]

Help Others Hug Again - Provoking Posts Fear that I would not be able to hug my Mom again. This is my motivation for writing this personal post. My Mother was found alone on the floor after being there for an estimated three days.  Why?  She had COVID-19.  Doctors think that she didn’t realize that she had it and that it came … Mor...

Some investment fund presentations, just "don't make good sense."

What Would My Granddaddy Say? - Provoking Posts “Son, I wouldn’t do that. It don’t make good sense.” “Yes, Sir.” “I told you once, and ain’t going to say it again, don’t do that.” “Yes, Sir.” The next thing I knew, I was literally knocked off my feet. My Grandfather ran a one-man HVAC service business in Alabama (yes, I ca...

The past few weeks have a lot of people in the financial world making comparisons to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This is understandable, as markets have fallen and day-to-day swings are reminiscent of the large one-way - and then the other-way - percentage point moves in 2008 and 2009. I remember those days well, as I was a Managing Director at Lehman Brothers. [ 380 more words ]

The Good Story - Part II - Provoking Posts The past few weeks have a lot of people in the financial world making comparisons to the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This is understandable, as markets have fallen and day-to-day swings are reminiscent of the large one-way – and then the other-way – percentage point moves in 2008 and 2009. I rem...

The following is a quote from a breakfast that I recently had with a long-time senior executive and UHNW private direct-deal investor. "We all know that the D and A in EBITDA can be 'delusional accounting' but it is 'accepted' so we work it." We were discussing how most everyone inside the business knows about the games that are all too often played with EBITDA, and other valuation and reporting metrics, but how they are now accepted by investors large and small so… [ 432 more words ]

Watch the Cash Flow - Provoking Posts The following is a quote from a breakfast that I recently had with a long-time senior executive and UHNW private direct-deal investor. “We all know that the D and A in EBITDA can be ‘delusional accounting’ but it is ‘accepted’ so we work it.” We were discussing how most everyone inside t...

Push push push... Work more, research more, analyze more - faster and faster. Sound familiar? I can't speak to all types of business, but over my career in and around the investment world, I've consistently seen premiums placed on the frequency of extremely long days, all-nighters and working through the day without breaks. I'm not saying that hard work and grit are not warranted sometimes, but if we step back, do we really make the best decisions and think clearly during days packed with back to back 15-30 minute meetings? [ 257 more words ]

To Learn More - Play More - Provoking Posts Push push push… Work more, research more, analyze more – faster and faster. Sound familiar? I can’t speak to all types of business, but over my career in and around the investment world, I’ve consistently seen premiums placed on the frequency of extremely long days, all-nighters and working ...

This past weekend my family was fortunate enough to spend time on Martha’s Vineyard and I smiled when seeing this old sign again. It has sat for many years at the edge of a grass airfield – a simple weather-divining device involving only a stone and some pithy instructions. It is a little worn, but the message has endured. Not just because it’s funny, but because it serves as a commonsense reminder to pilots: … [ 676 more words ]

Rock Science - Provoking Posts This past weekend my family was fortunate enough to spend time on Martha’s Vineyard and I smiled when seeing this old sign again. It has sat for many years at the edge of a grass airfield – a simple weather-divining device involving only a stone and some pithy instructions. It is a little worn, ...

The title of this post is the headline out this morning from the Council of Leading US Economists (C.L.U.E. for short). According to the organization, C.L.U.E.’s prediction is based on their latest research model. Will the Dow hit six figures while Trump is still in office, or is this another example of the never in doubt but often wrong career affliction, Strategist Analysis Disorder, otherwise known as S.A.D.? [ 184 more words ]

The Council of Leading US Economists Predict Dow 100,000 During Trump - Provoking Posts The title of this post is the headline out this morning from the Council of Leading US Economists (C.L.U.E. for short).  According to the organization, C.L.U.E.’s prediction is based on their latest research model. Will the Dow hit six figures while Trump is still in office, or is this another ex...

Tips Direct from the NFL The past few years, I’ve written Super Bowl posts about the emotions of big financial market games often getting the best of investors (click here for last year’s version). This year, I was fortunate enough to collaborate with Jeff Locke, who has been a punter in the NFL since 2013 (he deserves full credit for this post). [ 1,086 more word ]

Don’t Get Blindsided – Super Bowl Version LIII - Provoking Posts Tips Direct from the NFL The past few years, I’ve written Super Bowl posts about the emotions of big financial market games often getting the best of investors (click here for last year’s version). This year, I was fortunate enough to collaborate with Jeff Locke, who has been a punter in the NFL...

Yes, this title is a little click-baitish, but with all the other crazy headlines floating around I figured I’d throw out this provoking question. I didn’t make it up, however. How one could have outperformed “100% of the time” in the “longest” bear markets was detailed in a report published by a well-respected research center in 2001 (more on this below). [ 701 more words ]

Outperformance in Down Markets 100% of the Time? - Provoking Posts Yes, this title is a little click-baitish, but with all the other crazy headlines floating around I figured I’d throw out this provoking question. I didn’t make it up, however. How one could have outperformed “100% of the time” in the “longest” bear markets was detailed in a report publi...

Try to stay focused on your goals and the often rewarding long-term green versus short-term red. On my way to the office this morning, I noticed many holiday decorations in red and green. They always bring me joy and I stopped to take the picture at the top of this post. Unfortunately, in the financial markets, red and green evoke other feelings such as the ones illustrated in the charts below. [ 802 more words ]

Holiday Colors - Provoking Posts Try to stay focused on your goals and the often rewarding long-term green versus short-term red. On my way to the office this morning, I noticed many holiday decorations in red and green. They always bring me joy and I stopped to take the picture at the top of this post. Unfortunately, in the financ...

Chicken Fried and Cold Beer on a Friday Night
Can Investors Learn A Few Things From A Country Song?

Chicken Fried and Cold Beer on a Friday Night - Provoking Posts Can Investors Learn A Few Things From A Country Song? Those of you who know me well know that I am from Alabama and that I still have some Southern boy in me. Those of you who know a little country music may also recognize that the title of this post is based on a … More Chicken Fried and Cold Bee...