The Weather by Julian

09/09/2018

has her eye set on the Mid-Atlantic and the effects on Maryland, even if we don’t see a direct hit, could be significant. I’ll have a full update later today.

09/08/2018

I still don't have confidence in any of the computer models regarding , especially considering the fact that they differ significantly in their forecasts. The 12z GFS has set up a scenario where is impacted by two frontal boundaries that send it back out to sea after deepening off the coast of the Outer Banks. On the other hand, the Euro drives straight into the Carolinas on a very Isabel-like track. The fact that the two most reliable models (in my opinion) vary so significantly makes it impossible to make a solid forecast right now.

And so, we continue to watch and wait for some model agreement.

09/08/2018

Folks, I've been following meteorology for about as long as I've been alive and I cannot believe what I'm looking at on computer models tonight. The unprecedented ridge in the jet stream looks more and more like it will create a direct path for Florence to skirt up the East Coast, through the Outer Banks and into the Chesapeake, potentially as a major hurricane.

We're still in that funky period of time when models can make a dramatic shift, but I know you all are looking for some definite input, so here's what I have to say...

If the computer models continue to promote an Outer Banks / Chesapeake solution when we wake up tomorrow, it would be smart to start slowly stocking up food, water, and other essentials. I don't say this to scare you (as many of you know, I'm very much against hyping up storms that aren't real threats), but this is very much a real threat at this point. While things may and often do change, deserves everyone's attention right now.

09/07/2018

Hey everyone ---

Tropical Storm continues to churn in the Atlantic Ocean and pose a serious threat to the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Model guidance over the past 24-hours has largely shifted towards the idea of a landfall somewhere between South Carolina and Delaware during the middle of next week, but it's still too early to say exactly what this storm is going to do. But, with that said, there are a few points that I'm comfortable sharing with you right now...

1. The placement and timing of a major ridge in the jet stream could make this a very dangerous situation for the East Coast. A ridge like the one we're going to experience next week is not only uncommon, but also incredibly unseasonable. Usually, jet stream patterns protect the East Coast from tropical systems, but this time around, it may end up being just the opposite. In short, we're past the "let's watch it, but it probably won't happen" point with this storm. The threat is real. But, again, it's not time to panic. I know it's difficult to do, but try to balance the fact that this is a real and serious threat to the Mid-Atlantic with the idea that we won't know exactly if this will happen or how bad this will be until early next week.

2. A minuscule shift in 's track could be the difference between a major impact in Maryland versus just some rain and a little bit of wind. If the storm manages to stay largely offshore before heading up the Chesapeake Bay, that would be the worst case scenario. In that situation, Maryland could be dealing with the strongest direct hurricane strike in state history. With that said, however, a very slight westward shift in 's track could weaken it significantly by the time it would get to Maryland. This is a very fickle and difficult storm to forecast for that reason, especially from a Maryland standpoint.

I'm going to be watching very closely over the next few days. The upcoming 24-48 hours of model runs will be the most crucial. If guidance continues to suggest will skim the coast and eventually make landfall in the US after making a northward turn, you will hear a lot about this storm in the media over the weekend. is dealing with a lot of wind shear aloft right now which has weakened the storm significantly, but it'll have the chance to restrengthen once it exits that area of shear. This storm deserves all of our attention.

I'll be back with another update later today or tomorrow.

09/05/2018

Hey folks —

I’m keeping a close eye on Hurricane and its potential impacts on Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic Region. I’ll have more information a little later on once we see how the storm interacts with an oncoming frontal boundary (which will determine how much of a threat to land it is).

Until then, remember, don’t panic. You may see crazy computer model images and wild forecasts online, but don’t start worrying until professional meteorologists or myself (😉) tell you too!

- Julian

01/12/2018

A line of thunderstorms is passing thru west-central MD right now w/ a Severe T’storm Warning in effect for Washington County. Frederick, Carroll, Montgomery, and western Howard counties should all watch out for more potential storms coming up from the southwest later tonight.

01/07/2018

01/03/2018

There's been a lot of chatter about the "Bomb Cyclone" that's about to make its way up the east coast of the United States. But just how much will it effect Maryland, and how? Check out my latest video snowfall analysis for more.

12/09/2017

Updated snowfall forecast (as of 1am):

Baltimore Area: 1 - 3"
Charles, St. Mary's, Calvert Counties: 2 - 4"
Eastern Shore south of US-50: 4 - 7"

The 00z GFS brought snowfall totals way down, but short-range models are still confident Maryland will see greater accumulations. Time to wait and watch!

12/08/2017

The most recent run of the GFS (American Computer Model) brings Saturday's coastal low pressure system significantly closer to the coast, meaning the chances for some snow in Maryland have risen significantly. This won't be a tremendous snow event by any means, as temperatures will be right around freezing, which doesn't promote a significant moisture to snow ratio. Likewise, the amount of moisture necessary for major snowfall accumulations simply won't be present this time around.

The Eastern Shore and Southern Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, St. Mary's, Prince George's Counties) face the highest chances of seeing accumulating snow. The US-50 corridor between Cambridge and Salisbury will likely see the greatest accumulations. The snow may mix with rain at times, especially during the midday hours, as temperatures will be fluctuating above and below the freezing line. Snowfall totals will likely remain in the one to three inch range, but four inches of snow will be possible locally. This has the potential to make untreated roadways slippery and hazardous.

The Baltimore area will also see some accumulations, with up to two inches of snow possible for areas immediately surrounding Baltimore City. Southern suburbs, such as Glen Burnie and Laurel, may see higher amounts of snowfall thanks to a richer stream of moisture passing through those areas.

Keep in mind that temperatures are forecasted to hover around the freezing mark for the majority of the day on Saturday. This means that accumulation forecasts are particularly difficult to pinpoint simply because a slight local change in temperature could lead to heavier snowfall or a changeover to rain. Additionally, the snow that does fall will be a slushy, wet snow, particularly in areas significantly south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Folks in Baltimore should expect the onset of snowfall to arrive sometime between 6am and 8am on Saturday morning. Snow will persist throughout the day, before tapering off between 8pm and 10pm Saturday evening.

I'll provide more updates as more information comes in. Model trends over the next twenty-four hours will be more crucial than ever in predicting this system's fate.

For you weather nerds out there, this is a classic example of snowfall being produced from a baroclinic leaf associated with a wintertime coastal low pressure system, or 'Nor'easter'. This phenomenon expels moisture behind the location of a cold front, allowing it to mix with significantly colder temperatures and produce snow rather than rain. This is a rather low-grade example, but the majority of the major snowstorms we see in Maryland are produced thanks to these kinds of systems.

(Image: 00z NAM Model run for ~1pm on Saturday)

12/05/2017

There's a fairly good chance Baltimore will see its first snowfall of the winter this upcoming weekend, as two different weather events will have the potential to send flakes flying over central Maryland from Friday to Sunday. If Baltimore does indeed see wintry weather this weekend, snow accumulations would only amount to a dusting on grassy and metal surfaces, if that.

The first chance for snow will come during the day on Friday and into Friday night as an offshore low pressure system passes the Mid-Atlantic. There's a chance, albeit a low one, that precipitation from this system will extend just far enough to reach the Baltimore area. In this scenario, Baltimore's eastern suburbs and the north-central portion of the Eastern Shore will have the best chance to see some flurries.

The second (and best) chance for snow will arise when a low pressure system associated with a 'clipper' cold front passes over upstate New York and southern Canada early Sunday morning. Thanks to a blast of arctic air that'll be funneled southward by a significant trough in the jet stream, surface air temperatures will be well cold enough to promote snowfall. The biggest question is whether or not the moisture itself will find its way far enough to the south for Maryland to be affected. Like I said, don't expect anything significant, but there's a good chance that much of central Maryland will see some flurries during the overnight hours from Saturday into Sunday.

(The GIF below depicts the aforementioned 'clipper' system moving across the Northeast on the latest run of the GFS computer model.)

10/25/2017

With October marking the final month of online operations for Foot's Forecast, I'd like to take a moment to recognize this absolutely outstanding organization and everything it did to bolster the Baltimore meteorological community over the past twelve years. Foot's Forecast was a place for weather enthusiasts across the region, and even the nation, to compose forecasts together and put them to real-life use over social media. For so long, it seemed like those of us who were too young to be meteorologists but too weather-crazy to be silent had no place to turn to, but Foot's Forecast was the ultimate remedy for that.

While my time as a member of the Foot's Forecast team was brief, I can still remember being absolutely ecstatic during my freshman year of high school when Rich Foot, the founder of Foot's Forecast, reached out to me and asked me to come aboard as a forecaster. Foot's Forecast was a name that everyone trusted and, as an excitable 14-year-old weather enthusiast, I couldn't have been more honored to have that opportunity.

Thank you, Foot's Forecast, for making Baltimore a place where young, aspiring meteorologists could shine unlike anywhere else.