Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone

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Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone Your multi-state Tropical Team is a seasonal forecasting group within Foot's Forecast.

Follow us @ http://twitter.com/fftropicalzone or our main site page http://www.footsforecast.org/p/tropical We are always welcoming new forecasters to our local, regional and national team. If you want to become "the face of the place" for weather in your state, email us: [email protected]. We will forward details on how to file an application, as well as background information about our multi-state teams. Our Vision is to provide quality analyses for our readers with up to date and accurate information on tropical cyclone activity utilizing NOAA/NWS products. We collaborate with emergency management agencies when there is a threat from a significant tropical system. Foot's Forecast is multi-state collaborative team of college and high school forecasters fusing meteorological data with local perspective to generate daily, accurate weather predictions in social media. We provide weather information services such as local and regional forecasts for the Eastern United States, and concentrate on data-driven long range and short-range forecasting during high impact events.

6/17 7:00 PM. Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the 1st named storm for the 2026 tropical season.**Tropical Storm Warnings R...
06/17/2026

6/17 7:00 PM. Tropical Storm Arthur becomes the 1st named storm for the 2026 tropical season.

**Tropical Storm Warnings Remain In Effect For Portions of the Texas and Louisiana Coast**

Arthur forms near the Texas coast, with 'life-threatening" flash flooding. The storm is located about 20 miles north-northwest of Matagorda, Texas, and about 195 miles west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH with higher gusts. Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 MPH, and this general motion should continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur should move farther inland over Southeastern Texas tonight and weaken overnight.

Expected rainfall: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20
inches, through early Friday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into the southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous or life-threatening flash flooding.

Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next day or two.

Enjoy your evening.

Jeff and the Tropical Zone Team.

10/30/2025 - Hurricane Melissa approaching Bermuda later today and tonightThe 8 a.m. EDT NHC update has Hurricane Meliss...
10/30/2025

10/30/2025 - Hurricane Melissa approaching Bermuda later today and tonight

The 8 a.m. EDT NHC update has Hurricane Melissa located about 605 miles SW of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH, moving to the NNE at 21 MPH forward speed. The central pressure is 965 mb. Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/29/2025 - Hurricane Melissa over eastern CubaAfter impacting Jamaica with 185 MPH maximum sustained winds and gusts o...
10/29/2025

10/29/2025 - Hurricane Melissa over eastern Cuba

After impacting Jamaica with 185 MPH maximum sustained winds and gusts over 200 MPH, the center of Melissa headed toward eastern Cuba.

Presently, the center of Hurricane Melissa is located about 45 miles NW of Guantanampo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH, a central pressure of 968 mb and moving to the NNE at 14 MPH. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move offshore of Eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

From the NHC:

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected through this morning.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning. Remain in a safe shelter.

4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/28/2025 - Extremely dangerous Hurricane Melissa impacts JamaicaHurricane Melissa, with maximum sustained winds of 175...
10/28/2025

10/28/2025 - Extremely dangerous Hurricane Melissa impacts Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa, with maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH and a central pressure of 901 mb, is located 115 miles WSW of Kingston, Jamaica, moving NNE at 5 MPH. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Melissa is the strongest hurricane of the season, globally in 2025 and is now the 8th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.

From the National Hurricane Center:

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding,
landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today,
causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

Melissa has continued to strengthen. The 2PM Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center lists Hurricane Melissa ...
10/27/2025

Melissa has continued to strengthen. The 2PM Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center lists Hurricane Melissa as having 175 mph sustained winds. This is well above the minimum threshold for Category 5 winds. Melissa is now the 11th strongest hurricane in recorded history in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf).

Landfall is expected Tuesday morning in Jamaica. There is no record in modern history of a hurricane close to this intensity striking Jamaica.

-Forecaster Jason and the Tropical Team

10/27/2025 - Melissa now a dangerous Category 5 hurricaneIncreasing in strength, Melissa, with the 5 a.m. EDT NHC updat...
10/27/2025

10/27/2025 - Melissa now a dangerous Category 5 hurricane

Increasing in strength, Melissa, with the 5 a.m. EDT NHC update, has winds of 160 MPH and a central pressure of 917 mb. Melissa is located about 130 miles, SSW of Kingston, Jamaica, moving to the west at 3 MPH. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Given the low elevation of Jamaica, winds and storm surge will cause great damage.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the
mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive
infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast throughTuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should berushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/26/2025

10/26 3:25 PM. Good afternoon! Here are the recent key messages from the NHC's 2:00 PM update regarding hurricane .

Melissa is now about 110 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained wind gusts still at 140 mph. (CAT 4).

The Hurricane-Force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica:

Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.

2. Haiti:

Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Although winds are temporarily decreasing on the Tiburon peninsula, they could increase again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic:

Heavy rainfall through midweek could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in the southern portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely.

There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.

Jeff for the TZ storm page.

10/26 7:05 AM. As of the 5:00 AM update from the NHC, is now a Category 4 hurricane and is displaying the characterist...
10/26/2025

10/26 7:05 AM. As of the 5:00 AM update from the NHC, is now a Category 4 hurricane and is displaying the characteristic buzz saw appearance typically seen in the strongest hurricanes of the Atlantic Basin.

Good Sunday morning! Life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected in portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through midweek. Widespread power and communication outages are likely.

Mellissa is currently located 120 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving toward the west near 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Melissa's maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 140 mph, with higher gusts, and are expected to intensify further through tonight. Hurricane-Force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

RAINFALL:

Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rain is likely beyond Wednesday. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, is expected into Wednesday, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:

Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions

Prayers for those who will be in Melissa's path! 🙏

Jeff for the TZ storm page.

08/22/2025 - Hurricane begins post-tropical transitionErin is now located about 435 miles north of Bermuda and 425 mil...
08/22/2025

08/22/2025 - Hurricane begins post-tropical transition

Erin is now located about 435 miles north of Bermuda and 425 miles SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia. With hurricane force winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 956 mb, Erin is moving to the NE at 22 MPH.

Erin remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595mkm).

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

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