Foot's Forecast: The Tropical Zone

10/30/2025 - Hurricane Melissa approaching Bermuda later today and tonight

The 8 a.m. EDT NHC update has Hurricane Melissa located about 605 miles SW of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH, moving to the NNE at 21 MPH forward speed. The central pressure is 965 mb. Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda later today and tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/29/2025 - Hurricane Melissa over eastern Cuba

After impacting Jamaica with 185 MPH maximum sustained winds and gusts over 200 MPH, the center of Melissa headed toward eastern Cuba.

Presently, the center of Hurricane Melissa is located about 45 miles NW of Guantanampo, Cuba, with maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH, a central pressure of 968 mb and moving to the NNE at 14 MPH. A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move offshore of Eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night.

From the NHC:

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected through this morning.

3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning. Remain in a safe shelter.

4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.

5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/28/2025 - Extremely dangerous Hurricane Melissa impacts Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa, with maximum sustained winds of 175 MPH and a central pressure of 901 mb, is located 115 miles WSW of Kingston, Jamaica, moving NNE at 5 MPH. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Melissa is the strongest hurricane of the season, globally in 2025 and is now the 8th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record.

From the National Hurricane Center:

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding,
landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today,
causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding
and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are
expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now.

4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos:
Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy
rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy
rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and
Caicos Islands on Wednesday.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

Melissa has continued to strengthen. The 2PM Monday advisory from the National Hurricane Center lists Hurricane Melissa as having 175 mph sustained winds. This is well above the minimum threshold for Category 5 winds. Melissa is now the 11th strongest hurricane in recorded history in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf).

Landfall is expected Tuesday morning in Jamaica. There is no record in modern history of a hurricane close to this intensity striking Jamaica.

-Forecaster Jason and the Tropical Team

10/27/2025 - Melissa now a dangerous Category 5 hurricane

Increasing in strength, Melissa, with the 5 a.m. EDT NHC update, has winds of 160 MPH and a central pressure of 917 mb. Melissa is located about 130 miles, SSW of Kingston, Jamaica, moving to the west at 3 MPH. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Given the low elevation of Jamaica, winds and storm surge will cause great damage.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe shelter. Catastrophic
and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are
likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds, especially in the
mountains, will begin by this evening, leading to extensive
infrastructural damage, long-lasting power and communication
outages, and isolated communities. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along the southern coast throughTuesday.

2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday.

3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected
beginning today. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should berushed to completion.

4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are possible on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

10/26 7:05 AM. As of the 5:00 AM update from the NHC, is now a Category 4 hurricane and is displaying the characteristic buzz saw appearance typically seen in the strongest hurricanes of the Atlantic Basin.

Good Sunday morning! Life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected in portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through midweek. Widespread power and communication outages are likely.

Mellissa is currently located 120 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving toward the west near 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

Melissa's maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 140 mph, with higher gusts, and are expected to intensify further through tonight. Hurricane-Force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

RAINFALL:

Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rain is likely beyond Wednesday. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, is expected into Wednesday, resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:

Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF:

Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions

Prayers for those who will be in Melissa's path! 🙏

Jeff for the TZ storm page.

08/22/2025 - Hurricane begins post-tropical transition

Erin is now located about 435 miles north of Bermuda and 425 miles SSW of Halifax, Nova Scotia. With hurricane force winds of 90 MPH and a central pressure of 956 mb, Erin is moving to the NE at 22 MPH.

Erin remains a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 370 miles (595mkm).

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

08/21/2025 - 5 a.m. EDT - Hurricane beginning to move away from the NC coast

With maximum sustained winds of 105 MPH, a central pressure of 945 mb, Erin is moving to the NNE at 17 MPH and expected to turn to the NE with an increase in forward speed and gradual weakening.

Beach goers are cautioned all along most of the Atlantic coast to not swim in the life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Erin is growing in size and has hurricane force winds extending out up to 105 miles from the center of circulation and tropical storm force winds up to 320 miles from the center.

Key messages:

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and will spread northward along the
Virginia coastline during the next few hours. Elsewhere along the
mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely today through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of
Newfoundland on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Advisor Forrest for the Foot's Forecast Tropical Team

8/20 8:15 PM Hurricane continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding features.

Good evening, folks! is a massive hurricane, and the outer Bands are now brushing the North Carolina Outer Banks. Beachgoers are cautioned against swimming at most East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Erin is now located about 245 miles to the SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The Hurricane-Force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center, and Tropical-Storm-Force winds extend outward up to 265 miles.

Erin is moving toward the north at around 10 mph, with a turn toward the north-northeast expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda later tonight and early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada on Friday and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning in the next several hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely Thursday through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and Friday.

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Advisor Jeff for the TZ.

Hurricane approaches the NC coast - located about 455 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC - with maximum sustained winds of 100 MPH, a central pressure of 954 mb, moving to the NNW at 13 MPH. Hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 265 miles from the center. Conditions along the NC coast are expected to deteriorate by this evening. Erin will cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast ofthe U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today or tonight.
The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday
along the southeastern coast of Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday.

4. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts, and Atlantic Canada, should also monitor the
progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday through
Saturday.

Advisor Forrest

8/19 8:10 PM Hurricane hunter aircraft is now out investigating

Summary of Watches and Warnings from the NHC from their 8:00 PM update.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina, to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Make sure you are aware of your local high tides.

Advisor Jeff for the TZ.