09/02/2026
BREAKING: New Alaska US Senate poll results!
Mary Peltola continues to lead this hugely significant race - she has not trailed in our polling since the summer of 2025.
Alaska Survey Research
August 20-23, 2026
N=2,063 Alaska RV's, MOE +/-2.5%
N=1,495 LV's, MOE +/-3.0%
This survey was fielded using a combination of text-to-web distribution to random Alaska cell numbers, along with ASR panel completes.
This combined approach allows us to manage the demographic composition of our dataset, improving the distribution of key variables.
Data was weighted to population proportions by age, gender, race, education level, Alaska borough, party affiliation, political ideology and 2024 vote for president.
The LV sample was additionally weighted based on likeliness to vote, age, gender and Alaska region.
OK, let's look at "positive-negative" ratings first... for Peltola and Sullivan, as well as for the elephant in the room, Donald Trump.
They give us an indication of the movement going on in the broader race.
These are measured among all 2,063 registered voters:
Q: Indicate whether your feelings towards the following public figures are very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, very negative, if you have never heard of them or have no opinion.
Donald Trump
Positive 40.3%
Negative 56.3%
No opinion 3.1%
Never heard 0.3%
16 points underwater!
Back in April, Trump reached a -19 here... and these results almost EXACTLY match the national average for Trump approval.
FINDING: By measurement of Trump's popularity, Alaska is no longer a "deep red" state. We are categorically PURPLE!
Mary Peltola
Positive 49.6%
Negative 44.2%
No opinion 5.3%
Never heard 0.9%
Peltola's positive is the highest we've measured since the spring... of 2024!!
She was 50+% positive way back - this is the first time she's gotten back close to that high water mark.
Dan Sullivan
Positive 41.7%
Negative 52.7%
No opinion 5.2%
Never heard 0.3%
Sullivan on the other hand... that 52.7% negative is at a nearly all-time high - he clocked a 53.3% negative back in June of this year, the only time his negative has scored higher.
So Peltola has a +5.4% pos-neg differential, while Sullivan is gagging on a -11.0%!
The diff of diffs at +16.4% is PROBABLY the highest it's ever been with these two - I'd have to dig back through past data to confirm that, though.
So game over, right?
Q: Rank the following candidates for US Senate in the numerical order of your preference. You do not need to rank all the candidates. Click only one box in each row and in each column.
FINAL ROUND (N=1,495 LV)
Mary Peltola 50.6%
Dan Sullivan 49.4%
It's a squeaker!
So how come such strong Peltola results on the pos-negs and such a close horserace?
That's because the horserace is asked among likely voters, who are weight adjusted for likely voter demos.
Peltola is strongest among young voters (18-34) and voters in rural Alaska, and both those groups drop down in their incidence between the RV and LV samples.
The key for Peltola? Fire up the kids and get out the rural vote!
So that's it, despite Peltola's drubbing of Sullivan in the primary, we still anticipate a close race in November.
FIN
