Alaska Survey Research

AK-AT LARGE HOUSE RESULTS: Rep. Nick Begich continues to lead comfortably in House primary contest.

Let's compare House primary results from our most recent survey (May) with already released numbers from April...

Alaska Survey Research
May 14-17, 2026
N=1,401 Likely voters MOE=+3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online + ASR Survey Panel

Q: In the primary election, all candidates for U.S. Representative will run against each other, regardless of party. If the election was held today, which of the following candidates do you think you would vote for?

Candidate: April% - May% (Change)

Nick Begich III: 46.0% - 46.8% (+0.8%)
Matt Schultz: 28.9% - 28.4% (-0.5%)
Bill Hill: 11.3% - 12.8% (+1.5%)
John Williams: 5.7% - 4.9% (-0.8%)
Other candidates: 8.1% - 7.1% (-1.0%)

The Division of Elections filing deadline is next Monday, June 1, so we'll have the final list of candidates next week.

New survey starts next Thursday!

DDA travelling to all corners of the state!

NEW RELEASE: Peltola continues to lead Sullivan in US Senate race

Alaska Survey Research
May 14-17, 2026
N=1,401 Likely voters MOE=+3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online + ASR Survey Panel

Q: Rank the following candidates for US Senate in the numerical order of your preference.

The results...

Mary Peltola 48.4%
Dan Sullivan 43.8%
Dustin Darden 5.1%
Gerald Heikes 2.7%

So a 4.6% lead for Mary Peltola, coming close to winning it with 50% on the first ballot.

Campaigns are heating up, candidates have their ads on the air and people are starting to pay attention!

And the June 1st Alaska Division of Elections filing deadline is just days away, when we'll finally know the official candidate roster.

We'll be going back in the field in early June to see how the race is progressing!

Please spread the word with a LIKE, COMMENT AND SHARE! ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

BREAKING: Alaska LNG Gasline Project has more than 3:1 support among Alaskans. Support rises to over 4:1 among likely voters

In a statewide survey conducted May 14-17, 2026, Alaska Survey Research asked 1,680 Alaska adults aged 18+ the following question concerning the Alaska LNG project.

Q: There have been ongoing discussions recently concerning the Alaska LNG pipeline project, which proposes to tap our North Slope natural gas for Alaskans to use and to produce LNG, or liquified natural gas, to sell to Asian markets. Right now, we have no way to access natural gas on the North Slope. The Alaska LNG proposal includes building an 800-mile, 42-inch gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula. A private company, Glenfarne, owns 75% of the Alaska LNG project and the State of Alaska owns 25%. Alaskans will be able to access natural gas from several points along the pipeline route including the greater Anchorage and Fairbanks regions.

Based on what you have heard, do you support or oppose the development of the Alaska LNG project?

Strongly support 41.0%
Mildly support 26.5%
Mildly oppose 11.5%
Strongly oppose 10.3%
Not sure 10.7%

This represents a support-oppose result of 67.5% - 21.8% among all adults. The result improves among registered voters, 68.9% - 21.1%, and becomes overwhelming among likely general election
voters, 74.9% - 18.2%.

The survey was conducted online using a dual methodology of text-to-online to a sample of cellphone numbers in Alaska, plus use of the ASR Survey Panel. Survey panelists are only recruited via
participation in ASR surveys that employ random selection methodologies, not via any other non-probability methods. The ASR panel now comprises almost 18,000 Alaskans around the state.

Data for this survey was weighted to bring the sample into line with known demographic proportions for the Alaska adult population, by Alaska region (down to borough level), by age, gender, race, education level, party affiliation, political ideology and 2024 vote for President. Voting data is overlaid with an additional voting probability weight.

CONTACT:
Ivan Moore
(907) 727-7116
[email protected]

Alaskans overwhelmingly support gasline, as major announcement made by Glenfarne - Alaska Story The support for the Alaska LNG gasline has grown to 75 percent of Alaska likely voters, according to new survey.

BREAKING: New Alaska Governor numbers! Hot off the presses!

We have new numbers for you, but before we look at them, let’s back up 4 weeks and look at the results from last month, so we can see how things have shifted since then. It’s super interesting!

OK, these were the top seven vote getters in the primary race in the April survey. Remember, under RCV, all candidates run together in one race, regardless of party.

In APRIL…

Tom Begich 19.0%
Bernadette Wilson 13.5%
Dave Bronson 9.8%
Click Bishop 9.0%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 8.2%
Matt Claman 8.0%
Nancy Dahlstrom 6.9%

So under the April scenario, Begich, Wilson, Bronson and Bishop would go on to the RCV Final 4 general election.

OK, here are the details on our most recent survey, which just finished on Sunday:

Alaska Survey Research
May 14-17, 2026
N=1,401 Likely voters MOE=+3.0%
Methodology: Text-to-online + ASR Survey Panel

And guess what? Not only do we have the same seven leading the race, they’re in the exact same order!

But what do you notice about the movement?

Tom Begich 20.8% (+1.8%)
Bernadette Wilson 15.8% (+2.3%)
Dave Bronson 10.6% (+0.8%)
Click Bishop 9.8% (+0.8%)
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins: 7.6% (-0.6%)
Matt Claman: 7.3% (-0.7%)
Nancy Dahlstrom: 6.4% (-0.5%)

That’s right… the top four of Tom Begich, Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Click Bishop are pulling away, all increasing their vote share.

The other three, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Matt Claman and Nancy Dahlstrom, are falling back. The gap separating the top four from the rest of the field has grown from 0.8% to 2.2%.

It’s a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy… some candidates get in early and pull out in front, then they find it easier to raise money, so they pull even more in front etc. And some candidates are just better candidates and run better campaigns.

So there you have it. Next up, the filing deadline!

Happy 40th Anniversary thread! DDA is so proud to be a sponsor and supporter of thread and we were thrilled to be able to celebrate with Executive Director Stephanie Berglund. Here's to the next 40 years of great work!

‼️ BREAKING: Alaska LNG Gasline Project has more than 3:1 support among Alaskans. Support rises to over 4:1 among likely voters.

In a statewide survey conducted May 14-17, 2026, Alaska Survey Research asked 1,680 Alaska adults aged 18+ the following question concerning the Alaska LNG project.

Q: There have been ongoing discussions recently concerning the Alaska LNG pipeline project, which proposes to tap our North Slope natural gas for Alaskans to use and to produce LNG, or liquified natural gas, to sell to Asian markets. Right now, we have no way to access natural gas on the North Slope. The Alaska LNG proposal includes building an 800-mile, 42-inch gas pipeline from the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula. A private company, Glenfarne, owns 75% of the Alaska LNG project and the State of Alaska owns 25%. Alaskans will be able to access natural gas from several points along the pipeline route including the greater Anchorage and Fairbanks regions. Based on what you have heard, do you support or oppose the development of the Alaska LNG project?

Strongly support 41.0%
Mildly support 26.5%
Mildly oppose 11.5%
Strongly oppose 10.3%
Not sure 10.7%

This represents a support-oppose result of 67.5% - 21.8% among all adults. The result improves among registered voters, 68.9% - 21.1%, and becomes overwhelming among likely general election
voters, 74.9% - 18.2%.

The survey was conducted online using a dual methodology of text-to-online to a sample of cellphone numbers in Alaska, plus use of the ASR Survey Panel. Survey panelists are only recruited via participation in ASR surveys that employ random selection methodologies, not via any other non-probability methods. The ASR panel now comprises almost 18,000 Alaskans around the state.

Data for this survey was weighted to bring the sample into line with known demographic proportions for the Alaska adult population, by Alaska region (down to borough level), by age, gender, race, education level, party affiliation, political ideology and 2024 vote for President. Voting data is overlaid with an additional voting probability weight.

CONTACT:
Ivan Moore
(907) 727-7116
[email protected]