07/14/2026
Special Operations Forces (SOF) have long operated on a simple reality: the operator is the platform. While missions, technologies, and operating environments continue to evolve, human performance remains the decisive factor in mission success. But what happens when missions and definitions of mission success change?
In the first of a four-part series in 𝘚𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘞𝘢𝘳𝘴 𝘑𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘢𝘭, HumRRO's David Dorsey and Mike Ingerick, along with Col. David Maxwell (Ret.) (Center for Asia Pacific Strategy), and Mick Crnkovich (Stratagem Consulting), examine what that reality means for the future of assessment, selection, and qualification (ASQ) systems. How can SOF ensure that methods for identifying and developing operators align with the demands of the 2040 operating environment?
The central argument is straightforward: the validity of any ASQ system depends on the definition of success it is designed to predict. As SOF missions change, the criteria for identifying future operators must evolve as well.
❖Part 1: “The Operator Is the Platform,” available now, examines why ASQ system validity is inseparable from the criterion space it targets, how current SOF ASQ systems are structured, and key issues that frame the discussion: https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/07/13/assessing-special-operations-forces-sof-2040-part-1-the-operator-is-the-platform/
Parts 2-4 will be published over the next three Mondays:
❖Part 2: “The Two Trinities and the Human-Domain Advantage” argues that future SOF success will depend not only on traditional missions such as special warfare, surgical strike, and strategic reconnaissance, but also on the ability to operate effectively in the human domain. Influence, indigenous partner development, governance, and support to political warfare are becoming increasingly central to mission success and should be reflected in how future operators are assessed and selected.
❖Part 3: “The Technology Layer” explores how cyber capabilities, space operations, AI, and human-machine teaming are reshaping the SOF environment. The authors argue that technology does not replace the human at the center of mission success; instead, it raises the level of cognitive agility, judgment, and adaptability required to execute core SOF missions effectively.
❖Part 4: “Measuring What Matters” focuses on adaptive performance as a critical attribute for future SOF success. The authors examine approaches for assessing adaptability, judgment, and related characteristics, while offering a framework for identifying when ASQ systems have fallen out of alignment with the evolving demands of the operational environment.
The series argues that in 2040, SOF superiority may be defined less by who has the best drone and more by who can interpret complexity and decide under ambiguity faster than the adversary. That starts with selecting the right people—and with asking better questions about what the criterion actually is.
Special Operations Forces (SOF) should assess, select, and qualify operators for the operating environment of 2040.