02/10/2018
Research Protocol for Uganda's Household Demographic Modelling to achieve Demographic Devidend
what's is the issue?
World over, household size is one of the major factors influencing the social-economic transformation of any nation (Andreas Peichl, 2010). Apart from countries in Sub Saharan Africa Uganda in particular, some countries in the world especially East and South Asia (between 1960s and 2000s), unfolded evidence on the contributions of household size towards their Demographic Dividend (Population Secretariate (POPSEC), 2014). Additionally (Mason, 2005) proves that Household size played a significant role in lifting the Demographic Dividend for East and South Asia, which contributed to growth of 1.31% points in GDP per year.
With an average household size of five (5) persons per household fortifies high infant mortality rate (53 deaths per 1000 live births), increased communicable disease burden and high dependency ratio as currently reported at 103 by 2014 census report. Without pressing plausible attention to realistic modeling at micro level in order to diagnose the challenge from its roots, Uganda could fail to harness her Demographic Dividend.
Worth mentioning is that current macro DD implementation models developed by National Planning Authority in 2014 have huge gaps. The models represent largely macro level pathways (external validity) and silently overlook micro level components (internal validity) which could mislead planning and successful implementation of the DD at all levels and twists the nation into an economic disaster.
The study therefore employs quantitative data obtained from Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2012/13 investigating whether a household size has a significant socio-economic implication to household members. The socio-economic variables under investigation include frequency of falling sick in a month, level of education, weight and height of household members and expenditure on food and education in relation to household size. In this case, drivers for achieving the Demographic Dividend are the aforementioned socio-economic variables.
It is in a bid to use the available data sets to develop a micro demographic model that will complement the existing macro models and aid successful planning and implementing the DD. The study shall also inform the policy discourse within African governments, the amicable contributions of household size in harnessing the DD by conceptualising Ugandas case.
research focus
This section explains the research problem basing on Ugandas prevailing situation. It further presents the research question as well as the aim of the study.
Research problem
Following national dialogue on Harnessing the Demographic Dividend hosted by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) & (POPSEC, 2014). The researcher discovered that the current macro Dividend implementation model has huge gaps. The current model represents only macro level pathways to implement the DD and silently overlooks the micro level approach. This could mislead planning and successful implementation of the Dividend up to house household level, hence causing a Demographic Disaster. The study therefore presses a niche on developing a micro level model using the available data sets to enrich the current macro Demographic Dividend model.
Research question
The study hungers to discover the plausible contribution of household size towards drivers for achieving the Demographic Dividend in Uganda. In order to guide the study, the researcher shall rest on providing answers to this compelling question>what explicit socio-economic implications does the household size cause to its members?
Clear understanding of socio-economic implications of household size could be supported by providing answers to the following questions among which include:
Is there an association between the mean number of Meals taken per day and size of the household?
Does household size influence the number of times of falling sick of household members?
Does attaining higher level of education by a household member have a positive relationship with belonging to small household size?
Is high medical care expenditure in a month associated with large size of the household?
Is large household size related to a very unstable income of a household? etc.
Research aim
This study majorly aims at coming up with practical recommendations to Policy discourse regarding pathway for micro level actualization of the Demographic Dividend to expedite macro level implementation process basing on a realistic point of view. In addition, recommendations will be triggered by the micro DD model that shall be developed through this research so as to complement the existing macro level model and help the implementers to shift their approach from a more theoretical strategy to realistic one.
research methodology
This is a cross sectional investigative Study that adopted a quantitative approach for data sorting, analysis and reporting. Secondary data set of the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) 2012/2013 was employed as the main data source. The data set gives a broad coverage of quantitative socioeconomic indicators (DD Drivers) at household level that can aid generation of quantifiable results (in terms of numbers, ratios and percentages, etc).
The study chiefly embraced document review in order to give a comprehensive contextual insight about the whole subject. The researcher designed Content Collection Template (CCT) that eased compilation of key messages related to the subject from various sources. Cochrane collaboration online software was used to judge the quality of online publications that have been cited.
quantitative research
The study employed a quantitative approach. Secondary data from UNHS 2013 data set has been used to ascertain DD driver indicators such as but not limited to: as household size, mean number of Meals taken per day, number of times of falling sick in a month, level of education, medical care expenditure, food expenses per week, stability of income in a household, etc. The indicators shall be presented in form of percentages, ratios, numbers, means, etc to attach a considerable quantifiable meaning to them. Samples obtained from Northern, Southern, Eastern and western regions amounting to: 2011, 1396, 2060 and 1421 households respectively were obtained to ensure that results of the study present a more realistic picture of the nation since cultures in each region differ.
data collection
A letter of introduction from the department of population studies was obtained from School of Statistics, Makerere University and used to formally communicate to Uganda Bureau of statistics (UBOS) to avail UNHS 2013 data set.
One (1)-research assistant was hired and trained to help in sorting the data, which helped to expedite the process. One senior staff from department of population studies Makerere University was formally requested to quality assure and advise data sorting, analysis, literature search and will further quality assure report writing.
Table 2: Summary of methods used per objective
Research objectives
Hypothesis/Variables
Data source
Data collection methods used
To Establish the socio-economic implications of household size to its members
The number of times of falling sick among household members is positively related to the increase in size of a household.
Higher level of education among household members is positively related to small size of the household
The weight and height of household members increases with the reduction in the size of the household.
The level of expenditure on education in a household within 365days increases with the large size of the household.
Having a household head working as professional technician in positively associated with small households
UNHS data set 2012/13
Sorting variables from the dataset and doing analysis Using STATA13
Systematic review using the Cochrane collaboration online software to test the quality of papers to be considered for literature.
Designing document review template
To Establish the Policy recommendations for earning the Demographic Dividend at a household level.
To be obtained from the DD micro implantation model
Relevant documents/ reports
findings of the Analyses
Systematic review using the Cochrane collaboration online software to test the quality of papers to be considered for literature.
Designing CCT
Using the results of the analyses
The study also embraced literature search in order to give a comprehensive contextual insight. Among others the documents reviewed included: Census reports (2002 & 2014), Uganda Demographic health survey Reports (UDHS), UNHS reports, National Development Plan I and II (NDP I & II), National Vision 2040, Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP), National Population Policy 2008, IUSSP reports and UBOS Statistical abstracts.
Table1: Content Collection Template
Source
Year of publication
Title
Key messages
DATA ANALYSIS
After identifying, the variables that match the set objectives, data obtained will be analysed at different stages such as univariate, bivariate and multivariate stages. STATA (2014) as one of the international recognised statistical packages shall be used for analysis. Inferential and descriptive statistics help to explore data in form of frequencies, percentages, totals, ratios, means etc. in additions correlations, strength and direction of relationships between household size and DD driver indicators will be tested through regression analyses (one-way ANOVA) and or using scatter plots among others.
A logistic regression model shall further be used to aid the developing of DD model.
Results at different stages of analysis will be presented in either tabular or graphical form and narratives provided to attach more meaning on each table or graph at a 95% level of confidence.
Merit of the research and proposed contribution to science
Merit of research
Information generated from this research could aid policy makers in devising practical means to foster economic transformation without missing micro economic components in a population.
The research hopes to provide knowledge not only to policy makers but also to academia by discovering the level influence a household size has on demographic transition; level of education; Quality of health; economic growth, wealth and job creation: savings and investment that later translate into a Demographic Dividend
The study looks forward to updating a common position of implementing the International conference on Population and Development (ICPD) agenda beyond 2014 for Africas Development transformation that was adopted during the African Regional Conference on population and Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from September 30th to October 4th 2013 with the theme Harnessing the Demographic Dividend”
Contribution to science
The research looks forward to unfolding a comprehensive, more practical and largely scientific micro DD oriented model, backed by realistic policy recommendations to help Uganda and other countries in sub-Saharan Africa to understand feasible channels to harness the DD at household level in a fetch to complement the exist macro DD models.
In addition, the study tries to promote effective utilisation of the available data sets to conduct population a development research as a way of sharing and transferring knowledge to academia hence making professionals and learners appreciate scientific population oriented studies.
Population Economists could further develop more ideas out of the study in order to compile more robust information gyrating on the same subject to enrich economic theories relating population and development.
Literature review
Household size is one of the key aspects that contribute to economic growth of any nation as well as quality of life of citizens (International Union Scientific Study of Popualtion, 1928). This is because parental resources in small households improve human capital and contribute to a childs adult wealth, while many siblings in large households dilute resources and reduce wealth attainment (Keister, 2014)
Worth mentioning is that large families have a negative impact on the health and well-being of women, children, and their communities (Barber, 2013). Also Scott (1962) in his study of elementary school children in London found that the mean heights and weights of both boys and girls declined as progressively as the number of children per household increased from 1 to 5 and above. Therefore, household size plays an important role in Early Child Development (ECD).
Social class effects such as poor diet, frequent infections and lack of care common to large household size contribute to slowness of physical development and productivity in future (Marteleto, 2005). Regarding the intellectual development, increasing evidence shows that children from large households obtain lower intelligent scores than those from small families (WHO , 1976). Mental retardation is positively associated with large household size and this hampers adult productivity of the population involved.
research protocol
Results and Discussion
references
Andreas Peichl, N. P. (2010). Does Size Matter? The Impact of Changes in Household Structure on Income Distribution in Germany. 1&4.
Barber, E. A. (2013). The Influence of Neighbors Family Size Preference on Womens Progression to Higher Parity Births. HHS Public Access , 61-67.
Bloom & Williamson & Mason. (1998: 2001). The Demographic Transition and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. New York, Mexico.
International Union Scientific Study for Popualtion. (1928). Family marriage and Household. NewYork.
Keister, L. A. (2014). Race, Family Structure, And Wealth: The Effect of Childhood Family on Adult Assets Ownership. University of Calfonia, Press, Journal Division ,161-167.
Marlene & Parfait. (2015, April 23rd). Mapping Research Approaches to the Demographic Dividend PRB. New York: Population Reference Bureau.
Marteleto. (2005). Demographic change and Education attainment. Family size, Demographic change and Education attainment . Michigan, Brazil.
National Planning Authority. (2010). Vision 2040. Kampala.
POPSEC. (2014, July). The state of Uganda population Debate. Retrieved from www.posec.org: htt://www.popsec.org
Population Secretariate (POPSEC). (2014). The State of Uganda Population Report ( Harnessing Uganda's Demographic Dividend for Socio-Economic Transformation). Kampala: Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.
Uganda Bureau of statistics. (2014). National Population Housing Census Report. Kampala.
Uganda Bureau of Statistics. (2013). Uganda National Household Survey. Kampala.
WHO . (1976). Family formation and health. Geneva.
www.arrowresearchworld.com
www.posec.org
We believe all people benefit from inclusive environments. Nationally, there is a growing interest in postsecondary education for individuals with intellectual disability (ID) as a way to improve employment and other key life areas. Life long learning promotes academic, professional, and person...