L.R Modélisation et Analyse Statistique et Economique MASE

08/12/2025

Le laboratoire MASE a le plaisir de clôturer l’année 2025 avec un mini-workshop consacré à un thème essentiel pour notre communauté académique :
« Réflexions sur les missions et l’avenir de l’université tunisienne ».

🗓 Date : 12 décembre
⏰ Horaire : 14h00 – 16h00
📍 Lieu : ESSAI

Au programme, deux interventions :

🔹 Mohamed Dhia Khalfallah (University of Mannheim)
College Expansion and Graduate Unemployment: Congestion Versus Composition

🔹 Karim Ben Kahla (Université de Manouba)
*L’IA e(s)t l’avenir de l’université (?) *

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25/11/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 5 décembre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Héla Ben Hassine Khalladi et aura pour thème:

Public Investment, Growth and Debt Sustainability: Policy Lessons from a DIG Model Application for Tunisia

Abstract:
This paper aims to use a framework developed by the IMF, the DIG models (Debt-Investment Growth), based on DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models) for Tunisia. Debt sustainability assessment is a key element of IMF interventions since IMF does not intervene in cases where public debt is unsustainable. First, we will show how the model analyzes the relation between public investment, growth, and public debt dynamics. We will hence discuss the key pieces of DIG Models (the investment-growth nexus, the fiscal adjustment, and the private sector response) as well as their interactions. This will help understand and assess the macroeconomic effects of public investment scaling-up plans, including on growth and debt dynamics. The model also presents other important factors that may shape these effects such as the type of fiscal financing, the efficiency of public investment, and the capacity of governments to mobilize revenues.

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11/11/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 21 novembre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Maleke Fourati et aura pour thème:

Encouraging Organ Donation: Evidence from a Randomized
Informational Intervention among Young Adults in Tunisia

Abstract:
Organ transplantation saves lives and improves the quality of life of patients who would otherwise depend on costly and invasive treatments. The technology is becoming available in LMICs, but the gap between the demand for and the supply of organ transplants remains large. In a RCT at a Tunisian university, we assess the impact of an expert-led informational intervention on young adults’ donor status. We find that the intervention leads to substantial increases in donor sign-up rates. The data reveals large increases in medical and legal knowledge, as well as in institutional trust among the treated students. Treatment effects on donor sign-up are driven by students whose friends are also treated, indicating that peer effects amplify the impact of the intervention. Finally, we show that family attitudes do not mitigate treatment effects on knowledge and trust, but strongly predict the actual decision to sign up as a donor.

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28/10/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 7 novembre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Tarek Kahlaoui et aura pour thème:

The geopolitics of renewable energy and debt

Abstract:
This paper analyzes how Tunisia’s export-oriented solar and wind schemes re-map its geopolitics and re-shapes its debt. Blending critical geopolitics with debt analysis, it tracks the 2015–22 shift from national Solar Plan to 800 MW concessions awarded to European consortia. Financing comes via Euro green bonds, EIB/KfW loans, and sovereign guarantees collateralized against future power sales to Italy. Creditors escrow export revenues, insulating themselves from default while deepening Tunisia’s ECB-tied monetary dependence. Thus “green” infrastructure becomes geopolitical technology: it decarbonizes the EU neighbourhood, not Tunisia, and transfers fiscal leverage abroad. The study extends the debt-energy nexus to renewables, introducing “solar securitisation” whereby solar assets serve as sovereign collateral. Tunisia’s transition, the paper argues, re-articulates semi-peripheral subordination under the guise of decarbonization.

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15/10/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 24 octobre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Eya Frioui et aura pour thème:

Fintech-Driven Value Architecture in Sustainable Supply
Chains and Renewable Energy

Abstract:
Beyond improving access to financial services, fintech platforms offer sophisticated tools for risk assessment, data analytics, and transaction automation, which can be leveraged to enhance the efficiency, transparency, and sustainability of supply chains. This paper explores how the deliberate design of fintech solutions enables the creation of shared value, particularly by facilitating investments that support sustainable supply chain practices such as resource-efficient procurement, circular economy models, and low-carbon logistics and renewable energy projects, including decentralized energy production and green infrastructure financing. By integrating technological innovation with sustainability objectives, fintech not only optimizes capital allocation but also reinforces environmental and social outcomes across the entire supply chain ecosystem, creating measurable economic, ecological, and societal benefits. This study demonstrates that fintech-driven value architecture can serve as a critical enabler for transitioning supply chains toward sustainability while simultaneously advancing renewable energy adoption, highlighting a replicable model for emerging and developed markets alike.
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30/09/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 10 octobre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Najet Chouchène et aura pour thème:

Corruption, Human Capital and Economic Growth: Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Analysis

Abstract:
Unlocking economic growth may depend on more than the mitigation of corruption; it requires a robust foundation of human capital. While existing literature predominantly examines the direct relationship between corruption and economic growth, limited attention has been given to the role of education and skills in shaping this dynamic. This paper addresses this gap by exploring the nonlinear dynamics between corruption and economic growth, considering human capital as a critical threshold variable, across a broad panel of countries from 1995 to 2022. Using Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression models suggested by Kremer et al. (2013), advanced by Seo and Shin (2016), and Seo et al., (2019), the analysis reveals that a sustainable level of human capital is essential to ensure the positive effect of controlling corruption on economic growth. Therefore, countries need to reach and sustain a specific level of human capital greater than the estimated threshold to maximize control of corruption. This emphasizes the crucial role of education and skill development in enhancing institutional effectiveness and economic resilience.

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16/09/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous souhaite une très bonne rentrée universitaire 2025-2026 et vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 26 septembre 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Mohamed Dhia Hammami et aura pour thème:
The Effect of Negative Post-Colonial Interactions: Quasi-Experiment from Algeria

Abstract:
How do symbolic interactions between former colonies and colonial powers affect public attitudes? Despite extensive research on contact theory in social psychology, we know remarkably little about its applicability in post-colonial contexts where historical power asymmetries persist. This knowledge gap is particularly concerning given the proliferation of Sports for Development and Peace (SDP)—a global industry investing in sports-based interventions aimed at improving intergroup relations and social cohesion. These programs operate under the assumption that sporting events facilitate positive contact between groups, yet rarely implement the conditions theorized as necessary for prejudice reduction: equal status, cooperation toward common goals, and institutional support. This paper bridges social psychology and international relations by examining how a high-stakes soccer match between France and Algeria—a visible moment of post-colonial interaction—influences Algerians' attitudes toward French people and France as a nation. Applying a quasi-experimental design using unexpected events during survey (UEDS), I find that the match's outcome decreased Arab Algerian men's favorability toward French people as a social outgroup by 7\% while having no significant effect on economic cooperation or their views of France as a country. Importantly, these effects were absent among Amazigh men, suggesting that domestic ethnic identities mediate responses to symbolic post-colonial interactions. The results challenge both traditional contact theory and prevailing SDP practices by showing how competitive symbolic encounters can reinforce rather than reduce negative attitudes towards outgroup in post-colonial settings, particularly among groups most strongly identified with the post-colonial national project. These findings advance our understanding of how colonial legacies continue to shape contemporary international relations and suggest that sports-based interventions may have unintended consequences when theoretical conditions for positive contact are not systematically implemented in post-colonial contexts. These findings suggest that economics cooperation between post-colonial trade partners may be more resilient to symbolic conflicts than previously understood, as the compartmentalization of social versus economic attitudes allows bilateral economic cooperation to persist even when interpersonal sentiment deteriorates.

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23/05/2025

Workshop de clôture MASE

19/05/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 23 mai 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Chawki Khichi et aura pour thème:
Analysis of Fiscal Policy and Poverty Reduction in Tunisia: A Study Based on Social Spending Using an Error Correction Model

Abstract:
This article examines the relationship between economic policy and social development in Tunisia, with a specific focus on the role of fiscal policy in reducing poverty and inequalities through social spending. The objective is to assess whether these expenditures contribute to achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth. To this end, an econometric approach based on an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) was adopted. The results highlight a differentiated impact of social expenditures: health investments have an immediate and lasting effect on growth and social well-being, while education spending exhibits a paradoxical effect, requiring structural reforms to maximize its efficiency. These findings emphasize the importance of an optimized fiscal policy that integrates human capital development and improved governance of productive investments to ensure sustained and equitable growth.

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12/05/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 16 mai 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Chaima Omrane et aura pour thème:
The impact of consumer behavior on food waste in Tunisia
Abstract:
This study explores the relationship between consumer behavior and food waste in Tunisia. The research examines how demographic and behavioral factors, such as age, household size, work status, cooking habits, and restaurant consumption, influence food waste in Tunisian households. The analysis reveals that while younger consumers tend to waste more food, especially fruits and vegetables, older individuals display more responsible consumption patterns. Additionally, larger households tend to waste less per capita, thanks to better meal planning and resource management. The study also highlights the negative impact of work status on food waste, with households where both parents work tending to waste more perishable products. Furthermore, habits such as consuming leftovers were found to reduce food waste significantly. Based on these findings, the article provides recommendations for reducing food waste in Tunisia, emphasizing the need for targeted awareness campaigns, better food management practices, and policies that promote sustainable consumption.
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29/04/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 9 mai 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Hend Ghazzai et aura pour thème:

More recycling to save the planet?

Abstract:
We examine the impact of recycling on the economy, the environment and the exploitation of resources in a game-theoretic setting. Specifically, we analyze a two-period Cournot game involving two identical firms that produce a homogeneous good. In the first period, both firms use fresh inputs for production. In the second period, a social planner imposes that they recycle a portion of their previous output. Three types of equilibrium emerge, depending on the costs' parameters and the recycling rate. In equilibrium, firms always produce positive quantities in the first period. However, in the second period, they may both produce using a mix of fresh and recycled materials, both rely solely on recycled materials, or one firm uses both input types while the other uses only recycled materials. Interestingly, increasing the recycling rate does not always decrease the use of fresh inputs and may negatively affect welfare and the environment.
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16/04/2025

Séminaire MASE
Le laboratoire MASE vous invite au prochain séminaire qui aura lieu le 25 avril 2025 à l'ESSAI à 14h30. Il sera donné par Héla Ben Hassine et aura pour thème:
An Analysis of The Implementation of IMF Programs: Do Program Design and Political Factors Still Matter?
Abstract:
Since the 90’s, many governments fail to implement policy commitments with international organizations, especially the IMF, as the Fund ties disbursements of the loans to the achievement of structural reforms (conditionality). It was then interesting to scrutinize factors representing obstacles to compliance. In this paper, we will try to investigate the determinants of compliance failures of IMF programs especially after the 2002 Conditionality Review where the IMF revisited its conditionality guidelines and started with the “streamlining” initiative of 2000. Our results show that program design seems not anymore, a factor increasing the likelihood of IMF programs interruptions. Also, it didn’t highlight the role of political economy factors in the IMF program’s failures. Here it should be noted that that we used the overall relationship between the program design and program failure across all countries. As pointed out by Reinsberg, Stubbs & Kentikelenis (2021), we might have needed instead to take a case-based approach through a qualitative research. Large regressions frequently lack the specifics required to comprehend the complex impact of institutional and political issues. More case studies are requested in the paper in order to capture these nuances.
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