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BULLISH DEVELOPMENT FOR US YIELD.....

US yield surged sharply, more strength at the long end

US Treasury yields had a strong rally last week, in particular in the long end. 5-year yield closed the week up 0.056 at 2.954. 10-year yield rose 0.074 to 3.068. 30-year yield rose 0.073 to 3.205. Now, both 10-year yield and 30-year yield are back at important resistance levels.

30-year yield (TYX) is facing 3.255 cluster support, with 61.8% retracement of 3.976 to 2.102 at 3.260. The strong support seen from 55 week EMA (now at 2.999) is a sign of underlying bullishness Weekly MACD also stayed positive during the last consolidation pattern. Near-term outlook will remain bullish as long as last week’s low at 3.120 holds. A decisive break of 3.255/60 will set up a medium-term move to 3.976 resistance next.

It should also be noted if the bullish case is realized, the multi-decade channel resistance will also be taken out rather decisively. And it’s certainly a very bullish development for yields.

10-year yield is looking more bullish then TYX. The consolidation from 3.115 was contained well above 55 week EMA (now at 2.731). Weekly MACD stayed positive throughout. Near-term outlook will remain bullish as long as last week’s low at 2.989 holds. Firm break of 3.115 will resume the whole up trend from 1.336 (2016 low).

Also, the next medium-term rally will have multi-decade channel resistance taken out. Prior key resistance at 3.036 will be left behind formally. And the development could establish the next medium to long-term uptrend back towards 5.316. That’s a confirmation of the end of the era of falling US yields.

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AsiaPacific Stocks Markets at a glance...

# JKSE & KOSP >> at the major support;
# STI Index >> further fall expected, targeting 2950.
# TWII >> potential to breakout upside.
# HSI & SSEC >> room for fall further..
# Nikkei & KLCI >> positive pattern for upwards potential.

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What happen to ALIBABA ?
BABA has entered into selling zone with immediate target at $150... and possible further fall to $135 then $120...

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GCZ >> Bullish Reversal with $40 bounce from $1180 to $1220. $1220~25 would be the top-side limit for next one or two months.

CL >> Stronghold base building around $68~69, above $70 level, we would expect to see the old high be tested..

S&P 500 – longest bull market & return of new closing high

The S&P 500 index welcomed the longest bull market as well as the return of the new closing high last Friday. S&P500® analysts gave a summary on what happened last week and what investors should look out for in the US market this week…

Here are excerpts from the note by Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices:

Everyone loves a party (especially when it is on a Friday), and the Street doubled up last week to celebrate a two-in-one event. The first being the designation of the current bull market becoming the oldest on record for the S&P 500 (3,455 days and counting, replacing the prior 1990-2000 3,452 day record set in Y2K). The second, and of more relevance, was the return of the new closing high, as the index broke out of its trading range (Jan. 26, 2018, old high of 2,872.87 and the Feb. 8, 2018, recent low of 2,581.00) on the top side to post a new intraday high of 2,876.16 and a new closing high of 2,874.69, both on Friday, helped along by Chair Powell’s conformation of gradual interest rate increases. It was the 15th new closing high of the year, but it has taken 208 days (The market got used to it, 2017 had 62 new closing highs), and the 85th since the US Nov. 8, 2016 election.

The Friday closing high left the market up 0.86% for last week, posting its seventh weekly gain in the last eight, for a cumulative 5.75% return (very nice quarter-to-date). The continuing Bull (since March 9, 2019) has returned an annualized 16.53% equity return (325% in full), and 19.00% with dividends reinvested (418%), as consumer discretionary led the pack, with an annualized 25.24% return (741%), and energy the lowest, posting an 8.87% annualized return (123%).

The key question, however, is can it continue? At this point, the fundamentals are positive: record-setting earnings, record sales, low unemployment, and consumer spending as the economy continues to grow (helped by tax cut spending, based on the initial reports).

The negatives are rising interest rates (be it gradual, with flat curves), debt cost (with more debt, even if rates rise slowly, eventually it will hit), the Fed balance sheet, tariffs, and trade. Momentum, is positive at this point, with the prior trading range (if the index don’t slip back into it) appearing to give anyone who wanted out an opportunity (and support level to do it), leaving a stronger base.

This week is expected to be slow due to next week’s holiday (Monday, Sep. 3, with U.S. banks and markets closed), as a lack of trading could cause increased volatility; then there is trade (waiting for Nafta), China (can they talk) and the fun of politics (which had little impact last week, but always has potential). As for now, a new closing high on a nice summer Friday, as a single malt awaits me.

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6 Top US Tech Stocks ... how do you see?

Trade What You See -- SGX Stocks

3 Banks -- more room to go lower;
Bread Talk -- expecting support near $1.00;
Best World -- support at $1.20 risk to see $1.00 if support failed

Gold to soar above $6,000? | Futures Magazine

Trade What You See - USD & Inflation

美国通胀率若上升，美元会升值.
If the US inflation rate rises, the dollar will appreciate.
After Chinese products pay heavy taxes, American consumers have to pay more to buy, and other countries' products will also take the opportunity to increase the price. If Trump further taxes 25% of all $505 billion in Chinese products, the US inflation rate must rise. As the inflation rate rises, the Fed will also raise interest rates, and the dollar will appreciate against the world's currencies.

Trade What You See with GH & Waves.

A macro view on WTI Crude Oil - TA & FA.
Ref:http://www.futuresmag.com/2018/07/31/crude-any-time-any-place