Russian International Affairs Council

Amid the incoming waves of restrictive measures imposed against Russia, Japan’s political establishment has come forward with a number of statements that may well push the country’s bilateral relations with Russia beyond the point of no return. The current economic, financial, technological, visa and other kinds of sanctions clearly demonstrate Tokyo’s commitment to the path charted by Washington and its allies. However, there have come to light some more dangerous trends—ones that could disrupt the fragile balance of power in the Asia-Pacific, causing a “wave” of instability with consequences that are difficult to predict.

A New Rashomon: How ’s policy will shape in the . Article by Andrey Gubin.

RIAC :: A New Rashomon: How Tokyo’s Policy Will Shape Security in the Asia-Pacific Tokyo’s reaction to the aggravated international situation amid Russia’s special operation is extremely concerning. Sanctions were to be expected, as Tokyo has consistently followed suit with U.S. policy in this respect. However, the nature and extent of restrictions turned out to be far more si...

France and ECOWAS have levied sanctions against in the wake of the 2021 junta—however, these may be a double-edged sword in that they may bare the inverse affect.

Robert Quinn Carolan on Mali’s search for new partners in 2022

RIAC :: In the Eye of the Storm: Mali’s Search for New Partners in 2022 Since the last coup d’état in summer 2021, Mali has been host to a series of instabilities, largely involving protests against the French presence in the region, sanctions against the interim government from both the EU and ECOWAS, and a series of violent activity in Mali’s northern region arou...

Russia’s Western dream is currently taking the shape of a delusion or a nightmare. Russia will have to accept the fact that the Western option has receded for a more or less prolonged period. It will have to accept that its own Western character derives from its locus as the Western front of Eurasia. Russia is the only truly Eurasian state, containing both West and East within itself.

A viable Russian grand strategy under the circumstances can only be Eurasia-centric before it aspires to be ‘Greater Eurasian’. In this first stage it should encompass the Global East and South.

Article by Dayan Jayatilleka.

RIAC :: Putin’s Ukraine Pushback: Existential War & The Moment of Rupture The outcome of the ongoing military action in Ukraine is more than decisive for Russia; it is determinant. President Biden called President Putin’s decision “a war of choice”, but what was presented to Russia could hardly be described as a choice. The hidden dimension of the ongoing military o...

Numerous visits of Western leaders to Moscow on the eve of the crisis are among the foreign policy failures. Is this the end of ?

Seven glimpses of the new normal by Andrey Kortunov.

RIAC :: The end of diplomacy? Seven Glimpses of the New Normal The dramatic and unexpected events of 2014 only resulted in a temporary truce between Moscow and the capitals in the West, reflecting the precarious balance of power and the mutual unwillingness of the parties to escalate immediately. Was another collision—of a larger scale—inevitable? During th...

Despite Turkey stepping up its political activities in Central Asia, the country’s ambitious plans in the region and the scope for increasing its influence in the region, these plans appear to be largely far-fetched and implausible in the long term. This, however, does not negate the growing importance of Turkey for Central Asia in terms of building strategies for third parties (Russia, China, etc.). We believe that the main condition for events to take a favourable turn for Turkey is the strengthening of its economic cooperation with other countries in the region, which would not only complement Turkey’s cultural and humanitarian activities but would also serve as the foundation of the country’s influence in the region.

Article by Grigory Lukyanov, Nubara Kulieva and Artemy Mironov.

RIAC :: Turkey’s Policy in Central Asia: Are Ambitions Well-Founded? Recently, the attention of the international community has been focused on Central Asia. This is largely due to events that are directly or indirectly linked to Central Asia, such as the Taliban coming to power, the situation in Kazakhstan, the CSTO ramping up its activities, etc. Turkey has become....

It is likely that recent developments around Ukraine will have longer-term strategic implications, including in the area of security. Western states have long ago abandoned the idea of establishing an indivisible security system in the Euro-Atlantic, which was much discussed at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries. Now we can expect them to speed up the strengthening of their own security, relying on NATO, which will be announced at the upcoming summit of the alliance to be held in Madrid this June.

Although the rhetoric of many Western leaders still contains the thesis that security in Europe cannot be built without, much less against Russia, NATO has—in fact—consistently moved to make “containing” Moscow the main goal and the main justification for maintaining NATO in the 21st century. Ukraine may be assigned the role of a shield against the “Russian threat” in these plans.

Article by Igor Ivanov, President of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (1998–2004).

RIAC :: Starting A New Page So, the decision has been taken, with Russia officially recognizing sovereignty and independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. The establishment of diplomatic relations is followed by economic, humanitarian and military aid, as well as other measures necessary to formalize the sta...

As the military standoff over Ukraine continues, both sides have attempted to mobilize international support for their respective positions. While Kiev has received increasingly robust NATO backing, Russia has turned to its “strategic partner” China. A recently published Sino-Russian joint statement has fueled speculation that Beijing could weigh in on Moscow’s side and perhaps even lead to the resurgence of competition between ideological blocs in world politics. However, diverging interests on Ukraine limit such cooperation in the short term. A long-term alignment between both sides is a more serious possibility, but can still be influenced by Western policy choices.

Pascal Abb and Mikhail Polianskii on a Russia- limits of cooperation on and .

RIAC :: A New Sino-Russian Entente? Limits of Cooperation on Ukraine and Beyond As the military standoff over Ukraine continues, both sides have attempted to mobilize international support for their respective positions. While Kiev has received increasingly robust NATO backing, Russia has turned to its “strategic partner” China. A recently published Sino-Russian joint state...

With the INF Treaty collapsed and Russian proposals to prevent another missile confrontation in Europe possibly rejected, the logical thing to do would be to deploy the revised Pioneer missile in response to the new Pershings and Gryphons.

Perhaps, the real rationale for the diplomatic activity seen in the last couple of months is rooted in Russia’s attempts to mitigate, if not avert, the consequences of a potential European missile crisis by giving Washington the opportunity to refrain from wasting efforts and resources on such a venture, which will allow Moscow to do just the same. This proposal has turned out to be of interest to Western leaders, especially those keen to endorse a moratorium on the deployment of strike capabilities. Another option is to act in desperation, declaring the inception of the crisis on one’s own terms, forcing the opponent to react and spend more.

Alexander Yermakov on a Russian military response to the US/NATO rebuff.

RIAC :: A Military Response to Russians’ Infernal Question The problem that plagued the Euromissile crisis of the 1980s would persist if another confrontation of this kind were to break out. Russia would keep U.S. junior partners in its crosshairs, and the U.S. would threaten targets in Russia with European missiles. At the same time, this assessment ignore...

NATO strategists have decided to resort to the methods they repeatedly used to manipulate public opinion that were aimed at justifying their policies. That were the cases of NATO’s aggression in Yugoslavia, preparations, and then the Iraq War itself.

This time a similar scenario was used towards Ukraine.

It was hoped that right lessons will be drawn from this sad story. Long past the time when one could whistle past the graveyard with impunity, instigating international crises. Now it is time to sit at the negotiating table and begin serious substantive conversations about the whole complex set of Euro-Atlantic security problems that has accumulated over the past decades. Setting it aside until better times means multiplying risks of repeated acute political crises with no winners.

Igor Ivanov on Moscow’s mythical aggression against Ukraine.

RIAC :: When Persisting Delusions Vanish The day of February 16, 2022 will come to be a remarkable moment for the history of contemporary international relations. Scrutinized by some Western politicians and proliferated in the media, the news that Russia will certainly attack Ukraine on this very day has not been confirmed, which is to say...

On February 4, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a Joint Statement on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development. It is not surprising that this statement has received a lot of criticism coming from Western media. Beijing and Moscow have repeatedly been accused of forging an "alliance of autocracies" threatening the West.

China and Russia are like a whale and an elephant, to put them into one basket of "global autocracies" is a very questionable and misleading generalization, to say the least. The China-Russia Statement underscores only the obvious: No country, and no political party or movement has the ultimate answers to all the difficult questions of social development. Therefore, there should be no hierarchy or subordination among states on the basis of how they organize their political and social lives. China and Russia maintain that the main dividing line in modern politics is not the one between "democracies" and "autocracies," as are often presented in the West, but rather between "order" and "disorder."

Andrey Kortunov for Global Times on China-Russia Statement.

RIAC :: China-Russia Statement: A Quest for Diversity On February 4, on the sidelines of the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a Joint Statement on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development. It is a rather length...

The dynamically developing relations between Ankara and Kiev bring into focus such issues as Turkey’s vigorous pe*******on into the post-Soviet space, its willingness to act as a military and political patron of a number of former Soviet countries and aid them in strengthening their relations with NATO despite their non-NATO member status. Do these developments make conflict in the Black Sea more likely? What risks would this create for Russia and its interests?

Despite the commonality of interests and growing cooperation between the sides, Ankara will most likely try to compensate for its emotions with regard to Ukraine by being pragmatic in its relations with Russia. No matter how intensively cooperation between Ankara and Kiev may develop, Erdogan is not trying to give up its role as an “intermediary” between Ukraine and Russia. He is under no illusion that the West would be satisfied if it were Turkey pulling the chestnuts out of the fire and not the “Euro-Atlantic brotherhood.”

Article by Sergey Markedonov.

RIAC :: Turkey in the Black Sea Region: Risks for Russia? The dynamically developing relations between Ankara and Kiev bring into focus such issues as Turkey’s vigorous pe*******on into the post-Soviet space, its willingness to act as a military and political patron of a number of former Soviet countries and aid them in strengthening their relations with...

Amid the tensions over security in the Euro-Atlantic rising, one remarkable publication of January 2022 has been awarded with inadequate attention. Three years after openly recognizing space as a new operational domain and even after introducing institutional changes to the structure of the Alliance, with the Space Center established in Germany, NATO first articulated its Space Policy, and it did so in a rather comprehensive manner.

NATO’S Space Policy Ups the Stakes?

Article by Evgeniya Drozhashchikh.

RIAC :: NATO’S Space Policy Ups the Stakes? Amid the tensions over security in the Euro-Atlantic rising, one remarkable publication of January 2022 has been awarded with inadequate attention. Three years after openly recognizing space as a new operational domain and even after introducing institutional changes to the structure of the Alliance...