DMA Invest, Baia Mare (2026)

03/10/2026

Micron reported its fiscal fourth quarter and full year on 30 September, after the close. Revenue of $54.2 billion in a single quarter, GAAP net income of $37.7 billion, and a guide for this quarter of $61.5 billion. Here is the detail, and the part of it that decides what happens next.

THE QUARTER, ENDED 3 SEPTEMBER, IN GAAP TERMS

Revenue $54.229 billion, against $11.315 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Up 379% year on year and 31% from the previous quarter. GAAP net income $37.701 billion, against $3.201 billion. GAAP diluted EPS $32.87, against $2.83.

That is a net margin of 69.5%, against 28.3% a year ago. Of every dollar of revenue, almost seventy cents reached the bottom line after all costs, interest and tax. For the full year, revenue was $133.2 billion, up 256%, GAAP net income $85.0 billion, GAAP diluted EPS $74.33.

By product, DRAM was $39.8 billion, 73% of revenue, up 343% year on year. NAND was $14.1 billion, 26% of revenue, up 526%.

AGAINST ITS OWN GUIDANCE

Three months earlier the company had guided revenue to $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion and GAAP diluted EPS to $30.73 plus or minus $1.00. It reported $54.2 billion and $32.87, above the top of both ranges. Consensus sat at $50.45 billion of revenue, so the quarter came in 7.5% above what the market expected.

WHERE THE REVENUE CAME FROM

Core Data Center $18.0 billion, from $1.6 billion a year ago. Cloud Memory $16.3 billion, from $4.5 billion. Mobile and Client $13.1 billion, from $3.8 billion. Automotive and Embedded $6.8 billion, from $1.4 billion.

The two data center units together are now 63% of the company. A year ago they were 54% of a company one fifth the size. Data center SSD revenue on its own was close to $10 billion in the quarter, more than ten times the year ago figure, and server LPDDR module revenue more than doubled in a single quarter.

HBM revenue grew faster than the company as a whole. Management said calendar 2027 HBM prices are much higher than 2026 levels and that most of next year's HBM volume is already sold at those prices.

THE ORDER BOOK

This is the part that separates this cycle from previous ones. Micron now has 26 strategic customer agreements, 10 of them signed during this quarter alone. Remaining performance obligations, the revenue already contracted but not yet delivered, stand at about $150 billion. That is more than the company's entire fiscal 2026 revenue. Customers have also put $32 billion of financial commitments behind those agreements, and more than 75% of fiscal 2027 output is already committed.

A memory maker that sells into the spot market is worth one thing. A memory maker with four years of contracted volume is worth another. The agreements run through 2030.

THE CASH, AND WHERE IT IS GOING

The quarter produced $44.0 billion of operating cash flow, spent $10.8 billion on capital expenditure, and left $33.2 billion of free cash flow. For the full year, $89.7 billion of operating cash flow and $62.3 billion of free cash flow. Cash and investments ended at $73.5 billion against total debt of $5.2 billion, and inventories at $10.4 billion.

Now the turn. Capital expenditure for this quarter alone is guided at about $11.5 billion, and the first half at about $25 billion. All of fiscal 2026 cost $27.4 billion. The company is funding clean room space that produces wafers later: first output from the Idaho fab around the middle of calendar 2027, Singapore early in 2027, Taiwan mid 2027, a second Idaho fab and Japan in late 2028, New York in 2030. Cash earned in 2026 is being spent on capacity that sells in 2028 and beyond.

On capital returns, the board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 a share, the company repurchased $0.65 billion of stock during the year, and management said returns to shareholders will step up from 9 December.

THE GUIDE, AND THE CALENDAR

Revenue of $61.5 billion plus or minus $1.5 billion, GAAP diluted EPS of $37.84 plus or minus $1.00. Consensus had been $56.8 billion, so the guide is about 8% above it.

One detail the headline number hides. The quarter just reported contained 14 weeks, because fiscal 2026 was a 53 week year. The quarter being guided contains 13. On the headline, revenue is guided up 13%. Per week of sales, it is up 22%.

THE REACTION

The stock closed at $1,065.11 on the day of the release and traded flat immediately after the numbers came out. The next day it closed at $1,097.39, up 3.0%. On Friday it gave back 2.1% to $1,074.89. Two sessions after a 7.5% revenue beat and a guide 8% above consensus, the share price sits about 1% above where it started.

WHAT THIS IS

A year ago this was an $11.3 billion quarter at a 28% net margin, in an industry whose defining feature was that nobody could forecast the next six months. It is now a $54.2 billion quarter at 69.5%, with three quarters of next year's output already committed, a $150 billion contract book, and capital spending accelerating into capacity that arrives in 2028.

The cycle has not been repealed. It has been sold forward.

So which number would you underwrite: the 69.5% net margin, or the $150 billion of contracts behind it?

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

02/10/2026

Jabil reported its fiscal fourth quarter and full year on 30 September, before the open, and held its annual investor briefing the same morning. It beat every line of its own guidance, guided fiscal 2027 above consensus, and the stock closed 10% lower. Here is the whole set of numbers, and the arithmetic that explains the reaction.

THE QUARTER, ENDED 31 AUGUST, IN GAAP TERMS

Revenue $10.616 billion, against $8.252 billion a year earlier, up 29%. Gross profit $1.001 billion, so a gross margin of 9.4% against 9.5% a year ago. GAAP operating income $602 million, a 5.7% operating margin against 4.1%. GAAP net income $398 million, a 3.7% net margin. GAAP diluted EPS $3.76 against $1.99. Diluted shares 106.0 million against 109.2 million.

Read those two margin lines together. Revenue grew 29% and the gross margin did not move. All of the margin expansion happened below the gross line, where fixed costs were spread over a much larger base.

AGAINST ITS OWN GUIDANCE

Three months earlier the company had guided revenue to $9.2 billion to $10.0 billion, GAAP operating income to $526 million to $586 million, GAAP diluted EPS to $3.24 to $3.64, and core EPS to $3.80 to $4.20. Revenue came in $616 million above the top of its own range. Operating income, GAAP EPS and core EPS all came in above the top as well. Consensus was $9.69 billion of revenue and $4.06 of EPS.

THE TWO EARNINGS NUMBERS

GAAP diluted EPS was $3.76. Core EPS, the company's adjusted figure, was $4.40. The consensus number everyone measured the quarter against, $4.06, was a core number, so the headline beat was calculated against the adjusted scale, not the filed one.

The gap is disclosed in full. For the quarter, $73 million of items sit between the two: $24 million of amortization of intangibles, $25 million of stock based compensation, $9 million of restructuring and severance, $10 million of acquisition and divestiture charges, $5 million of pension cost. For the full year the same bridge is $365 million, of which $140 million is stock based compensation, $97 million restructuring and severance, $89 million amortization, $34 million acquisition and divestiture charges. GAAP net income of $1.042 billion becomes core earnings of $1.399 billion.

Whether those add backs belong in the number is a judgement each investor makes. Stock based compensation is paid in shares rather than cash, which is exactly why the share count matters: the company bought back $1.1 billion of stock in fiscal 2026 and still ended with 106.0 million diluted shares against 109.2 million a year earlier.

THE FULL YEAR

Revenue $35.954 billion, up 21%. GAAP operating income $1.704 billion, up 44%. GAAP net income $1.042 billion, up 59%. GAAP diluted EPS $9.75, up 65%. Core EPS $13.09, up 34%. Operating cash flow $2.002 billion, capital expenditure $628 million against $158 million of proceeds from asset sales, adjusted free cash flow $1.532 billion. Gross margin for the year 9.2%.

One line worth pausing on: this year's GAAP earnings per share, $9.75, is exactly last year's core number.

THE FISCAL 2027 GUIDE

Revenue of $44.5 billion, up 24%, against a consensus of $42.93 billion. Core EPS of $17.55, up 34%, against $16.92. Core operating margin of 6.1%, 30 basis points higher than fiscal 2026. Adjusted free cash flow of about $1.6 billion. AI related revenue of $22.1 billion, up 54% from $14.4 billion.

For the first quarter the company guided revenue to $10.6 billion to $11.4 billion, GAAP operating income to $481 million to $541 million, GAAP diluted EPS to $2.78 to $3.18, and core EPS to $3.80 to $4.20. Note the distance between the two EPS lines in that guide, about one dollar a share, wider than the 64 cents in the quarter just reported.

THE ARITHMETIC

Revenue is guided up $8.5 billion. At the guided 6.1% core operating margin, core operating income works out near $2.7 billion, about $650 million more than fiscal 2026. Adjusted free cash flow is guided from $1.532 billion to about $1.6 billion, so up about $68 million. That is eight tenths of a cent of free cash flow for every extra dollar of revenue.

The difference goes into the business rather than out of it. The company is adding four million square feet of manufacturing capacity for committed fiscal 2027 growth, and put capital expenditure at 1.5% to 2% of revenue, which on $44.5 billion is $670 million to $890 million against $628 million spent last year. A business that grows by $8.5 billion also funds the inventory and receivables that come with it.

WHERE THE GROWTH COMES FROM

In the fourth quarter, Intelligent Infrastructure did $5.8 billion, up 56%, at a 6.5% core margin and 55% of company revenue. Regulated Industries did $3.4 billion, up 9%, at 5.8%. Connected Living and Digital Commerce did $1.4 billion at 7.1%, the highest segment margin in the company.

That ranking is the point. The fastest growing segment is not the most profitable one. For fiscal 2027 Intelligent Infrastructure is guided to $25.6 billion, up 43%, with cloud and data center infrastructure at $17.5 billion, up 52%, capital equipment at $4.2 billion, up 40%, and networking at $3.9 billion, up 15%. AI related revenue accounts for $7.7 billion of the $8.5 billion of guided growth, and management expects a second hyperscaler to pass 10% of total company revenue.

THE REACTION

Down 10.0% on the day, closing at $286.86, where the options market had priced a move of 8.6% either way. Up 4.5% the next day to $299.79. That leaves the stock about 6% below where it traded going into the print and about 30% below its 2026 high. On the monthly chart the 20 month average sits at $251.79 and the 200 month average at $62.86.

WHAT THIS BUSINESS ACTUALLY IS

Gross margin for the year was 9.2%, which the company puts at 200 basis points above fiscal 2020. Six years of moving into higher value work bought two points of margin, and this is the largest volume the company has ever handled. Jabil is paid to build at scale, not to price what it builds.

So which number would you trade on: core EPS growing 34%, or free cash flow growing 4%?

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

17/09/2026

The Fed raised rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023, taking the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. The 30-year Treasury yield is higher now than it was before the decision.

The curve as it stands: 2-year at 4.715%, 10-year at 5.000%, 30-year at 5.347%. The Fed sets the overnight rate. It does not set the other two, and the long end sits 63 basis points above the short end.

Worth putting this in sequence. On 17 August the 30-year touched 5.31%, a level last seen in June 2007. On 19 August the Treasury doubled its long-bond buybacks specifically to bring it down. By 21 August it closed at 5.2371%, back where it started. Wednesday the Fed raised the policy rate, and the 30-year now sits at 5.347%, above the August peak that started all of it.

There is a contrast underneath that. Three weeks ago Warsh spoke at Jackson Hole and the curve flattened, with the short end rising and the long end falling. Wednesday he actually hiked, and the long end rose. The words worked. The action did not.

The equity split tells you why. The Dow fell 1.21%, led lower by financials, while the S&P lost 0.45% and the Nasdaq closed flat. Large banks had their worst day since February. Higher rates normally lift bank margins. They fell hardest, which is not a market pricing tighter policy. It is a market pricing something else.

The dot plot shows another hike this year, with sixteen of eighteen participants expecting one and four expecting two. Japan's 10-year sits at 2.999% and its 40-year at 4.130%.

So the question is whether a central bank can still lower long rates by raising short ones, or whether that transmission has stopped working.

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

28/08/2026

On Monday I posted what I was watching into NVIDIA's print. Every one of those items got an answer on Wednesday.

The quarter, ended 26 July. Revenue $96.2 billion against a $91.0 billion guide and $92.07 billion consensus, up 106% year on year. Data Center $89.0 billion, up 117%, with Hyperscale at $48.7 billion and the AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise line at $40.3 billion, up 138%. Gross margin 75.0%, GAAP and non-GAAP identical. GAAP diluted EPS $2.46 against consensus of $2.09.

First, the pattern. Four consecutive quarters had seen a beat sold. This one started the same way, with the stock down around 2% after hours. Then it closed Thursday up 8.7%. The break came from guidance, not from the quarter.

Second, the accounting point. Last quarter net income came in above operating income, $58.3 billion against $53.5 billion, which is the wrong way round and told you non-operating gains were doing work. This quarter that reversed: $59.7 billion of net income against $63.7 billion of operating income. The result is that operating income rose 19% sequentially while net income rose 2%. Same company, same quarter, two very different growth rates depending on which line you read.

Third, margin. It held at 75.0%, the top of the guided range. Next quarter is guided to 74.0%, which analysts attribute to memory cost inflation. The pressure is now inside the guidance rather than behind it.

Fourth, supply commitments. They were $119.0 billion three months ago. They are now $279 billion.

And the number that moved the stock: next quarter guided to $108.0 billion against $104.2 billion expected, still assuming zero China revenue, with management putting fiscal 2028 growth at 70% where analysts had 44%.

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

25/08/2026

On Monday the US Treasury launched what it calls Operation Economic Outcast. Secondary sanctions now extend to digital assets, gold, aviation, technology and shipping. Nearly 60 entities, individuals and vessels were named, and several existing licences permitting certain payments to Iran were suspended. The stated aim is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The threat underneath it is dollar access. Any entity found laundering money for Iran is to be removed from the dollar system.

Worth being precise about where that actually bites. Inside a single bank, moving money between accounts is an internal accounting entry, and stopping it is extremely difficult. The lever works one level up. Moving funds between banks requires a clearing bank or a shared settlement platform, and access to those requires standing in the global dollar system. A bank cut off cannot borrow or lend in dollar funding markets and cannot pay other banks in dollars. Very few institutions of any real size would survive that.

Which makes the most interesting line of the day the one about restraint. Asked why enforcement has not begun, the Treasury Secretary replied: "Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?" No deadline was set. He described the announcement as a warning shot.

Now look at what the market did with it. The dollar index sits at 99.00, near the low end of its range. Gold is at 4,704.60, close to its highest since May. Bitcoin is at 80,870, up 2.59%, on the same day digital assets were formally named a sanctions category. Brent is at 91.28 and has not come down.

If the instrument of pressure is access to the dollar system, the assets that settle outside it get a bid. Both did.

This is the third warning shot this month. The yen on 1 August, long-bond buybacks on 19 August, dollar access on 24 August. The 30-year yield is roughly where it sat before the second one.

So the open question is whether a threat this large works better when it is not used, or whether markets are already treating it as one that never will be.

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

24/08/2026

NVIDIA reports Q2 FY2027 on Wednesday after the close. Here is what the last filing actually said, and what would still move the stock.

Last quarter, ended 26 April: revenue $81.6 billion, up 85% year on year and 20% sequentially. Data Center a record $75.2 billion, up 92%, with networking alone at $14.8 billion, up 199%. GAAP gross margin 74.9%. GAAP net income $58.3 billion. Cash from operations $50.3 billion against $27.4 billion a year earlier.

One line worth pausing on. GAAP diluted EPS was $2.39. Adjusted EPS was $1.87. GAAP came in higher, which runs backwards adjusted figures normally flatter the result. The gap is gains on NVIDIA's equity holdings, which the adjusted number strips out. So the headline GAAP figure contains something other than selling chips.

Guidance for Wednesday: revenue of $91.0 billion plus or minus 2%, roughly 12% sequential and 95% year on year, with GAAP gross margin of 74.9% plus or minus 50 basis points. It assumes zero China Data Center compute revenue. Last quarter there were no Hopper shipments to China at all, against $4.6 billion in the same quarter a year earlier.

The pattern nobody prices: this would be the fifth consecutive quarter where a beat was followed by a lower stock. August 2025 lower, November 2025 down 3%, February 2026 down 5%, May 2026 lower again on a beat and a raise.

Three things that would actually matter. Margin, because on Sunday Bloomberg reported NVIDIA is raising AI server prices by over 15% as memory costs climb, the same cost pressure that had Samsung raising foundry prices last week. China, because guidance assumes none of it. And commitments, at $119.0 billion in supply obligations against $25.8 billion of inventory.

One more thing. From this quarter NVIDIA reports two platforms, Data Center and Edge Computing, instead of its previous segments. Comparability breaks at the exact print everyone is watching.

So here is the question. After four straight quarters of beats being sold, what would it actually take to change the reaction?

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

20/08/2026

Merck and Moderna reported topline Phase 3 data yesterday. INTerpath-001 tested intismeran autogene, an mRNA therapy built individually for each patient, coding up to 34 neoantigens drawn from their own tumour's mutational signature, combined with Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma. It met the primary endpoint and key secondary endpoints.

Moderna closed at 174.38, up 176.97% on 199 million shares. Merck closed at 152.20, up 12.60%.

Same trial, same drug, same result. One moved fourteen times more than the other.

The difference is the denominator. Keytruda is one of the largest drug franchises in the world, so for Merck this is incremental. For Moderna, oncology is the entire thesis.

The monthly charts make it clearer than the daily ones. Merck's move is a new high on a trend that has been running for eighteen years. Moderna's is one green candle off the floor of a collapsed bubble, from roughly 480 in 2021 to under 30 this year. A rebound and a continuation are not the same thing.

Which raises the question worth arguing about: does a single Phase 3 readout justify repricing an entire platform, or only one asset?

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

19/08/2026

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed Tuesday down 4.98% in a single session, below its 10-day EMA with RSI at 47.76.

The trigger wasn't chip demand. It was the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.32%, its highest since 2007, with Japan's 10-year at a three-decade high, Germany's 30-year at its highest since 2011 and France's since 2008.

Long rates set the discount rate. High-multiple growth is priced on cash flows years out, which makes it the longest-duration equity exposure there is. When the long end moves, that is what breaks first.

On Wednesday's open the Korea Exchange suspended program sell orders for five minutes, a sidecar, the circuit breaker for algorithmic selling. It is a mechanism most people never see because it rarely fires.

Worth holding onto: SK Hynix is down 11.19% this week and still up 57.85% over six months. The unwind has barely touched the rally that came before it.

So which is the anomaly — this week, or the six months before it?

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

18/08/2026

Two days ago I posted that markets were pricing almost none of the Iran conflict. Volatility had just closed at its lowest level of 2026 and four major indices sat at the top of their ranges.

Since then: the VIX is up 12.6%, Brent has risen for a third straight session to $91.45, and the Nikkei snapped a five-day winning streak with a 2.7% drop.

But the clearest move isn't in equities. On Monday the 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.311% the highest since June 2007. Japan's 10-year hit a three-decade high. France is paying the most to borrow since 2009.

The 60-day memorandum expired Monday and Trump said he isn't interested in extending it. Five vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. None on Sunday. Thirty-one the weekend before.

The repricing started in the bond market, not the fear gauge.

The question now is whether equity volatility catches up, or the bond market is wrong.

Not a recommendation. DYOR. NFA.

17/08/2026

Berkshire Hathaway raised its Delta Air Lines stake to 8.7% last week.
Most of the coverage stopped at that number. The interesting one is the 1.3 points above it.

Cross 10% of a company and you become a Section 16 insider: every purchase and sale disclosed within two business days, and any profit taken inside six months goes back to the company. Buffett has said in public that he keeps Berkshire below that line because it complicates life.

Berkshire has crossed it once with Delta. In February 2020 the stake was 11.2%. Over two days at the start of April it sold about 13 million shares and landed at 9.2%. Then it sold the rest and stayed out of airlines for six years.

The filing itself: Schedule 13G/A, signed 14 August. 57,320,000 shares, up from 39,809,456 in March. Sole voting power, zero. Shared voting power, all of it. Rule 13d-1(b), with the certification that the shares are not held to influence control. Position reported as of 30 June, filed on the 45-day deadline.

One more thing worth separating. Delta's June quarter is being reported as record revenue of $17.7bn, up 14%. That is the adjusted figure. On GAAP the same quarter shows $19.76bn, up 18.7%, and net income of $1.60bn, down 25%. Both numbers are disclosed. Only one of them is in the financial statements.

The next amendment is due 14 November.

Not a recommendation. Just what the documents say. Sources in the first comment.

DMA Invest

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