05/06/2024
*Candid analysis of the Indian political situation*
"Usually, when political parties come this close to victory, they do not relent. The BJP was always in power. So, what has changed? Since it is a caretaker government right now, it does not have all the necessary tools to coerce. What it has is a whole host of inducements. And inertia on its side. On books, both the TDP and the JDU are in NDA. So, it shouldn't have any problems. Here are points to ponder.
The BJP under Modi has never been in this weakened state. He never lost the majority before. So, this lot does not know how to operate in a weakened state. Once they go back to power with the coalition partners and get all the coercive tools back, their flex would be to dismantle the parties in the India alliance or even among their own allies and increase the ranks of the BJP. Once they reach 272, these coalition partners are useless to them.
And given that, at this time, some massive haggling is going on, this lot will punish these partners for 'having the audacity' to ask for more. With all their powers back, this will change India and the BJP forever. Once they attain 272 on their own, they can even continue to use the ED and their washing machine to get 400.
What does it mean for the critics of Modi/Amit Shah/Nadda in the BJP and the RSS? And what happens to their targets like Yogi Adiyanath? Use your imagination. You know the answer.
What it means for India? With the consolidation of power, they make parliament redundant again, continue to close in on the institutions and make the judiciary, especially the Supreme Court, pay for the recent bouts of freedom like the electoral bond case. Appoint the army chief to their liking and use all agencies to change power dynamics permanently. Eventually, they can change the constitution too.
If they lose power, however, here is what happens. A reset in the party takes place. A healthy succession competition starts within the party, and a younger leader emerges. The RSS gets a break from all this harassment without any loss of privileges and, in an ideal situation, regains influence over the party.
What happens to the BJP coalition partners like the TDP, the JDU LJP (RS) and others? They get special status for their states. Can be sure to keep their influence. Get the choicest positions in the union government. If Chandra Babu and Nitish Babu want to move to the center (highly unlikely, as they have much too much to do in their states), they can get particular positions like Deputy PMs or Vice Presidents etc. Otherwise, they can have cabinet positions for their MPs. They also get to keep their parties and have significant influence over policies. TDP can rebuild Andhra like Babu wants to. Nitish Kumar can alleviate poverty in his state and stop the exodus of the population. Finally, they all can rest assured that the blackmailing infrastructure is gone.
Finally, for the India alliance. There are two poles of Indian politics. The BJP and the Congress hold their sides. What has happened since 2014 is the near collapse of the Congress-led pole. This is not good for the smaller parties or the economy of politics. But once Rahul Gandhi becomes the PM, this mental barrier breaks, and the average order is back online.
Similarly, once he implements his three key policies, caste census, Mahalakshmi scheme and Pehli Naukri Pakki scheme, this further strengthens the emerging ecosystem. The institutions, including the media, get free again, and the country resumes its democratic journey. The stability of the government is less important for now. What matters the most is how soon these policies can be introduced and bear fruits.
If everything else fails, even the premiership can go to the new allies. But I don't think it will come to that. For the BJP's allies, there is far more haggling space in the India block. And also room for self-preservation. Otherwise, it is King Modi and Regent Amit Shah, and they will not remain weak forever."
