Social Policy and Development Centre

06/05/2026

In 🇵🇰, government tax revenue lost from illicit ******es is substantial, but much lower than ***co industry estimates 🔎

Our colleagues at Social Policy and Development Centre estimate:

- 34% of consumption (or 18.3 billion sticks) are illicit, including 7.2 billion sticks produced locally, and
- revenue lost from illicit trade amounts to Rs 115.6 billion, not Rs 400 billion as claimed by industry.

Learn about evidence-based policy recommendations to reduce the illicit market, while continuing to raise ***co taxes 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/the-revenue-loss-due-to-illicit-cigarette-trade-in-pakistan/

30/04/2026

As Pakistan approaches Budget 2026-27, its fiscal federalism is mired in stagnation rather than progress. The 11th...

01/01/2026

14/11/2025

The recent establishment of the Tax Policy Office (TPO)—separating the critical function of tax policy design from...

31/07/2025

In 🇵🇰, a 🆕 2025 survey of shows significantly less illicit trade than the ***co industry claims 🔎

Social Policy and Development Centre estimates that the overall extent of illicit trade is 3️⃣5️⃣%, not 54% as cited by the industry. The researchers also find:

- more illicit trade in rural areas compared to urban areas, at 39% & 27%, respectively, and
- some success in the track & trace system, with required tax stamps on 57% of packs compared to 48% of packs in 2023 📈

Learn more about the findings & recommendations to reduce illicit trade by strengthening oversight and enforcement, while continuing to raise to***co taxes to reduce consumption 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/from-claims-to-evidence-the-extent-of-illicit-trade-of-ci******es-in-pakistan/

29/07/2025

https://spdc.org.pk/publications/rationalizing-it-taxes-for-human-development-and-export-growth

05/07/2025

🆕 study from Social Policy and Development Centre assesses the negative impact of maintaining the same excise tax rate in 🇵🇰 since February 2023 🔎

Between March 2023 & March 2025, inflation-adjusted:
- tax rate for low-priced cigarette brands ⬇️ from Rs 101 to Rs 84 per pack &
- price for most sold brand ⬇️ from Rs 221 to Rs 200 per pack 📉

In contrast, adjusting excise tax rates for inflation in FY 2024-25 & 2025-26 would have:
- reduced cigarette consumption by 3️⃣%
- saved >215,000 lives from premature death, &
- raised an additional Rs 97 billion in tax revenue 📈

Learn more about these findings & the implications 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/the-cost-of-cigarette-tax-rate-freeze-in-pakistan/

13/03/2025

BR - ePaper Mar 11, 2025 Comments and News Page 7 Unravelling cigarette tax revenue mystery Mar 11, 2025 Facebook Twitter Whatsapp Muhammad Sabir The first half of fiscal year 2025 has painted a perplexing picture of Pakistan’s cigarette industry. The latest data on cigarette production and tax co...

09/01/2025

🆕 study from Social Policy and Development Centre analyzes the illicit market in 🔎

The estimates that the overall extent of ci******es is 33%, while smuggled ci******es make up 12% of the market. This suggests that domestic manufacturers are largely responsible for illicit trade.

Learn about the ways can strengthen tax administration to reduce illicit trade, while raising ***co taxes 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/the-extent-of-illicit-trade-of-ci******es-in-pakistan-working-paper-series

12/12/2024

This week, Economics for Health - formerly To***conomics presented at the "South Asia To***co Control Leadership Programme," organized by Institute for Global To***co Control in 🇱🇰

Along w/ our collaborators from Social Policy and Development Centre & Rijo John, we discussed the current state of ***co tax policies in 7️⃣ countries in 🌏 & the opportunities to improve policies by significantly raising taxes and replacing tiered tax structures 🔎

Learn more from the brief 👇
https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/cigarette-tax-scorecard-3rd-edition-spotlight-on-countries-participating-in-the-south-asia-to***co-control-leadership-programme/

Thank you to the attendees from , , , , , , and for your active participation & commitment to ***cocontrol!

Learn more about the meeting 👇
https://www.publichealth24.com/indirect-costs-of-to***co-are-twice-the-direct-costs-jeffery-drope/

09/12/2024

In 🇵🇰, a 🆕 from Social Policy and Development Centre finds that more are choosing cheaper, economy brands.

The shows:
- overall share of economy brands increased from 79.7% in 2021-22 to 93.4% in 2023-24 📈
- share of lower-price economy brands increased from 16.3% to 45% in that time 📈

Smokers of lower-priced economy brands also smoke more ******es, with an average of 14.3 ci******es daily, compared to an an average of 10.6 among upper-priced economy brand smokers & 10.7 among premium brand smokers.

Learn more about the findings & recommendations fro 👇

https://www.economicsforhealth.org/research/consumption-behaviour-of-cigarette-smokers-in-pakistan-the-2023-survey/