30/10/2025
Mari Petroleum (MARI) is a main oil & gas E&P stock on PSX. It currently trades around 691–730 PKR, with October 2025 close at 691.48 PKR after recent profit declines and royalty cost pressures.
Short-term indicators are neutral to mildly bullish, with mid/long-term consolidation and key levels near 649 PKR (support) and 706 PKR (resistance).
Fundamental snapshot
Latest financials (Q1 FY2025-26):
Net sales 45.4 billion PKR, net profit 15.6 billion PKR,
EPS 13.03 PKR. Results affected by higher royalty expense and gas system curtailments.
Annual performance (FY2025):
Gross sales down 2% to 200.2 billion PKR;
PAT down 15% YoY to 65.4 billion PKR;
EPS 54.45 PKR.
Profitability pressured by higher royalties from Nov 2024, gas supply curtailments and volume shifts to SNGP, lower production, and higher financing costs.
Dividend: Final cash dividend of 21.7 PKR per share announced; payout kept steady despite weaker profits.
Seasonality and sales trendsMonthly/quarterly trends: Sales mostly flat to slightly up YoY, but vulnerable to system issues and government payments in Q2 and Q4 (royalty adjustments and gas allocations). Notable drops often in Q2 (Jan–Mar) and Q4 (Apr–Jun) due to seasonality and outages.
Major fluctuation drivers:
Royalty/tax policy shifts (e.g., Nov 2024), field outages or pipeline disruptions, changes in regulated gas prices and SNGP demand, exploration results.
Technical overview
Short-term: Bullish timing suggested by some charts, with price above key supports. RSI and MACD indicate stabilization; occasional unusual volume/rallies possible, but resistance below last year’s highs.
Price history: All-time highs above 900 PKR in Dec 2024; recent months consolidated in 650–750 PKR range due to weaker earnings.
Forecasts: Most targets for late 2025 sit in the 651–725 PKR band.
Price projections at a glance
October 2025:
691–730 PKR (stable, post-profit warning)
December 2025:
~797.6–820 PKR (modest upside from seasonal dividend effect)
June 2026:
691–863 PKR (high volatility anticipated; summer dips possible)
Key patterns to watch Peak profits and prices align with new discoveries or regulatory improvements (historical era 2018–2023).
Winter strength in sales (Q1: Oct–Dec) followed by softer quarters due to cost adjustments and curtailments.
Dividends, royalty changes, and major gas finds/outages drive sharp price moves.
In Short, MARI remains fundamentally solid among E&P peers but faces royalty-driven and supply-disruption risks. Monitor quarterly regulatory costs, buyer allocation, and outage news for quick price adjustments.
Current fair price range is 691–730 PKR, with a potential 797–820 PKR by December 2025 and 691–860 PKR (wide band) by June 2026, reflecting cycles and volatility.
𝕀𝕟𝕧𝕖𝕤𝕥𝕄𝕖𝕟𝕥𝕚𝕤
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