09/06/2025
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09/06/2025
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Poor showing on HDI
THE new Global Human Development (GHD) Report is out and it doesn`t bring any good news for Pakistan. With the Human Development Index (HDI) value of 0.560 for 2018, Pakistan has slipped one step on the ladder of the 189 countries to be placed at 152, almost at the bottom of 37 nations categorized by medium human development and just a notch away from the group with low human development.
The report issued by UNDP every year is considered to be a good measure of progress made by countries to reduce income inequality, cut multidimensional poverty, improve gender equality and enhance public access to education and healthcare.
The HDI is a measure for assessing long-term progress in three basic dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life measured by life expectancy, access to knowledge assessed by expected years of schooling for the children and standard of living measured by Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.
The new GHD report 2019 explores inequalities in human development by going `beyond income, beyond averages, and beyond today: Inequalities in Human Development in the 21st Century` as its authors underline that inequalities in human development aren`t just about disparities in income and wealth. The proposed approach sets policies to redress these inequalities within a framework that links the formation of capabilities with the broader context in which markets and the governments function.
The report shows Pakistan has made some progress over the years, enhancing its HDI value by 38.6pc from 0.404 in 1990 to 0.560 as life expectancy at birth has increased by seven years, expected years of schooling by 3.8 years and GNI per capita by about 62.4pc. Nevertheless, the country has fared poorly when compared with other Saarc nations, which have performed much better, and is 13pc below the average HDI of South Asia.
Nepal, which is closest to Pakistan in HDI rankings, sits at 147. Bangladesh and India have jumped one space each to position at 135 and 129. Bhutan didn`t change its position at 134. Sri Lanka and Maldives are the only two South Asia nations to be classified among countries in the high human development group at 71 and 104. Even Iran, which has suffered under international sanctions for years, is ranked at 65.
The life expectancy at birth and average expected years of schooling in Pakistan are lower than the South Asian averages.
A child born in Bangladesh and India, for example, expects to live 72 and 69.4 years when compared with the life expectancy of 67.1 years in Pakistan. The average expected years of schooling in Pakistan is 8.5 years. In comparison it is 11.2 years in Bangladesh and 12.3 years in India.
Pakistan has performed poorly even on inequality adjusted human development, as well as gender development and equality compared with the regional countries.
According to the report 38.3pc of the country`s population lives in multidimensional poverty and 12.9pc is at risk of being pushed below the poverty line. Pakistan has 14pc of the 541 million poor living in the region as 51.7pc of its population is suffers from intense deprivation and 21.5pc `severe` poverty.
That is not all, though. Several previous studies and multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) show uneven distribution of income, health, education, gender and other disparities in human development across the different regions. While a few major cities like Lahore may have higher human development ranking, many for example, majority of the districts in Balochistan and a few in South Punjab are worse off than nations with very low HDI values.
In the words of UNDP Resident Representative in Pakistan Ignacio Artaza if the country`s population was divided into five equal bands or quintiles from richest to poorest, the living standards of these groups would show two completely different Pakistanis living in Pakistan can be an entirely different experience depending on how much money one has with the cafe franchises and mega malls of Pakistan`s urban metropolis on the one hand and the dirt floors and open defecation of its poorest rural areas on the other,` he wrote recently.
Why we are where we are? First, the low HDI ranking is a sad reflection on bad political and development policy choices we have made over the last several decades. Successive governments, political or military, have chosen to divert resources to areas that would give them political mileage over their rivals instead of focusing on inclusive economic growth through higher spending on education, healthcare and other public services that can help bridge growing social and economic disparities.
Secondly, the ruling elite has systematically eliminated and curbed organised collective voices of different segments of society such as labour and student unions that would create demand on behalf of the people for evenly distributed improved public services schools, hospitals, drinking water and so on.
Political parties that are supposed represent voters by raising such issues have for long chosen to look away from the factors that are primarily responsible for growing economic inequalities and social disparities. It would not be wrong to state that these parties no longer represent the masses but the moneyed elite.
Another factor that has contributed to the present situation is absence of an effective, financially powerful third tier local governments in the country. The `distance` insulating political leadership and bureaucracy in provincial and federal capitals from the poor residents of a remote village or a town in Balochistan, for example, is so large that it is near impossible for the latter to convey its issues and demands. On top of that, our bureaucracy isn`t accountable to the public and like our political class works for the elite rather than the poor affected by development policies.
In the recent years, governments have taken certain initiatives like distribution of cash handouts among the poorest of the poor. But such programmes have very limited utility. The only way of improving the country`s rank on HDI is to make policies that can lead to inclusive economic growth and favour the poor and target social and economic disparities. That is not possible without a structural change and improvement in the governance system and organisation of communities for collectively voicing their demands for better living standards and access to economic opportunities. �
Concept of Quasi Rent:
Definition and Explanation:
The concept of quasi-rent owes its origin to Dr. Alfred Marshall. Dr. Marshal is of the opinion that:
"It is not possible for human beings to increase the supply of land. It is fixed by Nature. If price of a produce rises, the surface of earth cannot be increased and if price falls, it cannot be decreased. But by appliance of machine which are the product of human efforts, the supply can be increased or decreased if a fairly long period of time is allowed".
"Marshall is of the view that a differential surplus which arises from a factor of production, whose supply is fixed for all times to come should be named as rent but a temporary gain which a factor or production earns due to temporary limitation of its supply should be called quasi-rent".
Example:
For instance, the demand for shaving blades suddenly goes up in Canada and the price of a packet containing 10 blades rises from $15 to $20, The entrepreneurs lured by high profits will naturally try to produce more blades. They may try to meet the demand by working the factory for 24 hours.
Let us suppose, the supply is still short of demand and the price remains at $20 per packet. The new entrepreneurs attracted by high profits will establish new factories. A factory cannot be established in a day. It needs time for installing new machinery. When new plants are set up, the supply of blades will increase and the price comes down to the level of their costs of production ($15). The temporary gain which the old factories have earned during the period when new factories were not installed, is regarded as earned during the period when new factories were not installed is regarded as quasi-rent.
"Quasi-rent is, thus, a temporary gain which is earned by a factor of production due to the temporary limitation of its supply".
Modern View of Quasi Rent:
The modern economists do not place land under a separate category. They are of the opinion that when all the factors of production are scarce in a relation to their demand, the rent can arise from all of them. Rent is one of the important members of a large family consisting of wages, interest and profits, or, in the words of Marshall, we can say:
"Rent is the leading species of a large genus".
How does rent of Land differ from rent of; (a) Fisheries, (b) Mines and (c) Buildings?
(a) Rent of Land and Fisheries. If proper care of fisheries is taken and fishing is not done in the breeding season, then the rent of land and fisheries is very similar to each other. A fishery which is well located near the market will be in an advantageous position. Its produce will be marketed at a lesser cost than the other fisheries which are situated at some distance from the market. If the price of fish per kilo in the market is equal to the cost of operating it in the distant fisheries, then the fisheries which are situated near the market will earn a surplus. This differential gain or rent is all due to the factor of situation.
If a fishery is more productive in the supply of fish than the other fisheries, then it will enjoy rent in the same way as a superior land enjoys over an inferior land. If fishing is done throughout the year, then the resources of the fisheries will be soon exhausted and the rent will be analogous to mines.
(b) Rent of Land and Mines. Rent of mines stands on a different footing from rent of land. There is no doubt that mines are a part of free gift of Nature but they do not posses the quality of being indestructible. As mines are worked out, they soon get exhausted. It is not possible to gain its content by managing it as we do in the case of agricultural land. So the owner of the mines demands of reward, firstly, for the differential gain enjoyed by the mines over other mines and secondly, the compensation for the exhaustion of mine. This compensation is called "royalty". Thus, we find that the rent of land differs from mines as the owners of mines get rent proper as well as royalty.
(c) Rent of land and urban site land. Rent of land and rent of urban site do not differ fundamentally from each other. In the case of agricultural land, the fertility of the soil plays a very important part in the determination of rent. As regards urban site rent, it is situational advantage which plays the decisive role.
For instance, if two houses quite similar to each other are situated at two different places, one in the heart of the city and the other in the suburb, the former will enjoy more rent than the later.
Living with higher interest rates
THE central bank`s move to opt for a 150 basis-point increase in its key policy rate to contain rising inflation on the day the rupee fell 3.8 per cent has sent strong signals to financial markets and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Its short-term lending rate has now risen to 10pc from 8.5pc and will remain effective for the next two months.
While announcing the rate, the SBP said inflation in 2018-19 might remain between 6.5pc and 7.5pc against the target of 6pc and economic growth would be slightly above 4pc.
How our new government will fulfil its promise of creating new jobs amid this economic growth prospect depends on its ability to enforce greater fiscal discipline on the one hand and improving external finance on the other. Without that, growth will not accelerate beyond 4pc, limiting the scope for job creation on a large scale.
A heavy dose of tightening had become necessary to take the policy rate into the double-digit zone. Allowing the rupee to fall to a new low shows that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is serious in letting the local currency find its real worth.
An IMF mission told the authorities recently the rupee was still overvalued from the Fund`s point of view and monetary tightening undertaken before Nov 30 was less than sufficient for checking the growth in money supply.
The Nov 30 increase in the policy rate preceded by the rupee`s fall to a new low of 139.06 to a dollar signalled to the financial markets that uncertainty about going to the IMF should end now.
These events indicate that political positioning and posturing aside, Pakistan is now serious in seeking a fresh IMF loan. Bankers say signalling this to the financial markets was necessary because Finance Minister Asad Umar`s statement in parliament that the government was in no hurry to obtain an IMF loan was adding to uncertainty.In four and a half months of this fiscal year, there has been an unprecedented growth in private-sector lending by banks.
Why? Actually the government was busy borrowing from the central bank (read printing money) to retire previous debts of commercial banks and to meet its current expenses. This means banks had no avenue to park excess liquidity except for lending to the private sector. And why was the private sector busy borrowing excessively from banks? They were doing so as they anticipated further interest rate tightening and knew well that banks had funds to lend.
`So the most immediate impact of the policy rate hike would be on banks` private-sector lending,` says the treasurer of a large local bank. `Going forward, you will see a slower growth in credit than what you have seen so far.
This is all the more possible because after heavily borrowing from the central bank and retiring commercial bank credit, the finance ministry will now switch gears: it will borrow more from banks to retire central bank debt. Banks will naturally rush for lending to the government.
That the interest rate hike has come at a time when largescale manufacturing (LSM) is showing contraction is both good and bad. It is good in the sense that, with credit demand from the industrial sector already projected to slow down in coming months, tighter interest rates alone will not hurt growth sentiments the way they did in the presence of higher demand.
But it is bad in the sense that it might discourage even those sectors of LSM that are doing relatively well and could witness growth with some investment in production capacity building.
But monetary tightening is meant to discourage expansion and, by extension, investment for the time being and encourage savings for promoting local investment through local savings in the future.
The lagged impact of 275-percentage-point increase inthe policy rate since January and other policy measures is likely to contain domestic demand during the current fiscal year, the SBP said in its monetary policy statement. Citing prospects of lower than last year`s output of major crops in 2018-19 and expected moderation in economic activity partly due to the contraction in LSM, the central bank has projected economic growth for the current fiscal year will be slightly above 4pc.
The output of LSM has recorded 1.71pc decline in the first three months of this fiscal year. Ten of the 15 LSM sectors, including textiles, food, fertilisers, automobiles and iron and steel manufacturing, have recorded negative growth.
Following the latest monetary tightening, the increase in banks` lending rates means a higher cost of finance for such leading sectors of the industry that are no more sitting on their own cash piles due to smaller output growth.
On the other hand, higher bank interest rates will hurt even those five sectors of LSM that have so far shown a rising trend in production. These are electronics, leather products, paper and board, engineering products and rubber products.
These subsectors of LSM are already in trouble due to a higher cost of imported inputs after the rupee depreciation.
Business leaders fear that the most telling impact of monetary tightening will be on small and medium enterprises (SMEs). They fear that with low economic growth, a weaker rupee and high interest rates, SMEs` loan defaults will grow.
And that, in turn, will discourage banks from lending to the SME sector, particularly if the government restarts borrowing from banks heavily. Between July 1 and Nov 16, the federal government retired Rs2.63 trillion worth of commercial banks` credit by borrowing Rs2.99tr from the SBP for this purpose.
But once Pakistan enters the IMF programme, government borrowing from the SBP will have to be disciplined, senior bankers say.
Looming water crisis biggest risk for Pakistan economy: WEF survey
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan`s ease of-doing business is likely to be affected in the coming decade as the $300 billion economy struggles to mitigate imminent risks, according to a report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The report titled `Regional Risks for Doing Business` has listed water crisis, unmanageable inflation, terrorist attacks, failure of urban planning and critical infrastructure as immediate risks faced by the country with 220 million inhabitants.
The risks were identified after the WEF carried out an `Executive Opinion Survey` between January and June. The findings were tabulated after receiving responses to survey`s risk-related questions for the South Asian region Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
The report highlights 10 major risks to doing business in South Asia including failure of national governance, unmanageable inflation, unemployment and underemployment, failure of regional and global governance, cyber attacks, failure of critical infrastructure, energy price shock,failure of financial mechanism or institution, water crises and large-scale involuntary migration.
Failure of national governance was listed as one of the foremost challenges faced by the countries in the South Asian region which has remained politically active during the last two years as Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Maldives went through highly charged election seasons.
South Asian elections are usually observed with anxiety, as they are prone to violence, blockades and tensions. Even after completion, the period following elections is usually mired with uncertainty.
The report also points out that Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh are susceptible to cyber-attacks as they continue to run on computers using Microsoft products that report malware encounters almost regularly. The region`s vulnerabilities came under spotlight after Bangladesh Bank was hit by hackers who got away with one of the biggest heists in the history, robbing the country`s central bank of more than $80 million.
`Unmanageable inflation` was ranked as the second-highest risk in the region. South Asia benefited from low global oil prices during 2014-16, but a combination of rising energy prices and expansionary monetary and fiscal stances point to rising inflationary risks.
In July this year, Pakistan`s inflation rate reached four-year highs as rupee`s value continues to deteriorate. The report highlights unemployment or underemployment as the third leading risk for the region.
Of the 19 countries facing imminent cyber-attack risks, 14 were from Europe and North America, by contrast, 22 of the 34 countries that facing `unemployment or under-employment` as top-most risks hail from sub Saharan African region.
Geo-political concerns were relatively muted, with `failure of regional and global governance` and `terrorist` attacks in ninth and tenth place globally, respectively.
The starkest of geopolitical risks, `interstate conflict` was ranked in the top three risks in 17 countries. Most of these countries were in Eastern Europe and Eurasia, a pattern that reflects the increasing importance of that part of the world as global geopolitical balances undergo recalibration.
Volkswagen to spend �44bn on `electric offensive`
WOLFSBURG: German auto giant Volkswagen said on Friday it will invest �44 billion by 2023 in the smarter, greener cars of the future as it ramps up efforts to shake off the `dieselgate` emissions cheating scandal.
Over the coming five years, VW said it aims to spend `almost �44bn` ($50bn) on electric, self-driving and connected cars as well as mobility services like car sharing.
The figure represents roughly a third of the group`s planned expenditure between now and 2023, and the bulk of it will go on developing e-cars, VW said following a supervisory board meeting on future strategy.
Volkswagen`s `electric offensive` underscores just how serious the automaker is about closing the gap with Asian competitors and US tech giant Tesla who have had a head start in the e-car race.
`We want to make Volkswagen the global number one in e-mobility,` CEO Herbert Diess told reporters.
`The time has come to take further technology and product decisions to achieve that goal.` The group, whose brands range from luxury Porsche and Audi to the budget-conscious Skoda and Seat, has set itself the ambitious target of offering more than 50 electric models by 2025, up from six today.
It has high hopes in particular for the `affordable`, zero-emission Volkswagen ID compact which will have a battery range of 550 kilometres (340 miles) and cost roughly the same as a V W Golf in a direct challenge to Tesla`s mass-market Model 3.
As part of the new strategy, VW intends to reshuffle some production sites in a bid to boost efficiency and achieve savings by bundling production of different models across brands.
`We are making our plants fit for the future,` VW board member Oliver Blume said.
Teaming up with Ford Two existing German plants will be converted into assembly lines for all-electric vehicles from 2022.
The plant in Emden will specialise in building small electric cars and sedans for several of the group`s brands, while the Hanover factory will make the ID Buzz, the clean-energy version of VW`s iconic camper van.
In a nod to concerns about job losses, Diess acknowledged that electric motors, which require fewer parts than combustion engines, are `much less complex` to build.
But VW has promised to guarantee jobs at both sites until 2028, focussing instead on phasing out positions by not replacing those who retire.
VW also announced plans to open a new factory at a yet to be determined location in eastern Europe.
Diess additionally confirmed that VW was `currently in talks` on teaming up with US competitor Ford in building light commercial vehicles, which would involve sharing factories.
But he stayed coy on speculation that the cooperation could extend into electric and autonomous car manufacturing.
Diess said partnerships were becoming necessary to achieve cost savings at a time when the industry is undergoing an expensive transformation.
Looking further ahead, VW said it was still `exploring the potential` of manufacturing its own batteries for electric cars as concern grows in Europe about the Asian dominance in battery cell production.
Diesel bans Volkswagen`s pivot towards e-cars has in part been spurred by efforts to shake off its ongoing `dieselgate` scandal.
The group was forced to admit in 2015 that it had installed cheating software in 11 million diesel vehicles designed to dupe pollution tests.
Suspicions of trickery later spread to other car makers too, badly hurting the industry`s reputation.
The saga also fuelled a backlash against diesel, with a string of German cities now facing driving bans for the oldest, most polluting diesel cars.
Faced with increasingly angry drivers, the German government has come under pressure to avoid the bans but its efforts to get car makers to commit to cleaning up engines have had limited success.
The `dieselgate` fallout has so far cost V W more than �28bn in fines, buybacks and compensation and the company remains mired in legal woes around the world.
Nevertheless customers have remained loyal, helping Volkswagen to record sales last year.
The group said last month it was on track to beat last year`s revenues of �231bn.-AFP
PAKISTAN’S ranking on the Human Development Index (HDI) in 2018, based on 2017 data, is 150th out of 189 countries. India (130th), Bangladesh (136th) and Nepal (149th) are ahead of us. Sri Lanka, ranked 76th, is the star performer of the region.
Amazon goes from books to a trillion-dollar valuation
SAN FRANCISCO: Amazon`s journey from an online bookseller started in a garage to a global e-commerce powerhouse valued at a trillion dollars has centred on obsession with the long road.
The company initially incorporated as `Cadabra` by Jeff Bezos in 1994 and backed with money borrowed from his parents joined Apple as the second US technology firm to be valued at $1 trillion on Tuesday.
`It`s funny comparing Apple and Amazon because they are very different companies,` said independent technology analyst Rob Enderle.
`Apple is basically a one product company nowadays; Amazon is anything but.` While Apple makes most of its money from iPhones, the Amazon empire includes global e-commerce operations, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, streaming television, groceries and more.
Created in a garage in a suburb of Seattle, Washington, the company renamed `Amazon` sold its first bool( -Fluid Concepts and Creative Analogies: Computer Models of the Fundamental Mechanisms of Thought by Douglas Hofstadter -to a computer engineer in mid-1995.
By the end of that year, Amazon was selling books online throughout the US.
Amazon went public in early 1997.
The company for more than a decade put growth over profit, investing heavily in warehouses, distribution networks, and data centers.
`Every cent they made they putback in the company, Enderle said of Amazon.
`They kept their eye on the prize, which was initially to take over most of commerce.
INNOVATION SANS SCANDAL: Neil Saunders of the research firm GlobalData said Amazon`s success comes from the fact that it innovates unlike any other.
`This heady pace of creativity is the key reason why it stays several steps ahead of the marl(et and is able to generate so much growth,` Saunders said.
Bezos has kept firm control of Amazon, steering clear of hedge fund investors inclined to short-term tactics aimed at getting share prices to jump.
The founder and chief executive also avoided scandals or other distractions, keeping revenue and costs close enough to manage and easing into `adjacent markets` that play into Amazon strengths or interests, according to Enderle.
For example, Amazon Web Services cloud computing business is a lucrative business built on technology infrastructure that the company needed to run its own operations.
Investing in warehouses, trucking, drones, shipping and other distribution systems not only enables Amazon to drive down costs they position the company to compete with the likes of FedEx and UPS.
Buying Whole Foods grocery chain last year got Amazon established real world outlets while putting its delivery and retail smarts and systems to worl( in the brick-and-mortar world.
DRUGS AND DIGITAL ADS: Prescription medicine would be a natural market for Amazon to expand into, according to Enderle. Meanwhile, Amazon is reportedly beefing up its digital advertising business to better compete in an online ad market dominated by Google and Facebook.
In the past quarter, Amazon posted its best-ever profit of $2.5 billion as Bezos, whose Amazon stake has made him the world`s richest person, highlighted the importance of the digital assistant Alexa that powers Amazon electronics along with cars, appliances and other connected devices.
According to the research firm eMarketer, Amazon`s e-commerce revenue will grow more than 28pc this year to reach $394bn, and will account for 49pc of US online retail sales and nearly Spcof all retail spending.
One of Amazon`s revenue drivers is its Prime subscription service which offers streaming video and music, free delivery and other perks and which has more than 100 million members worldwide.
ARROGANCE TRAP: Some fear Amazon is becoming too dominant a force, especially in retail, sparking antitrust discussion even as the company keeps expanding globally and searches for a second headquarters in North America.-AFP
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