Strategic Vision Institute Islamabad

🌍SVI Analysis |

"The old order is cracking, the new is yet to form, and the phase currently is that of unease and vacuum.

With US allies rethinking their alliances, wars returning, derision of international law and norms, prevalence of distrust among international actors, and globalised institutions facing strain from their home governments, the transitional phase of the global order that is persisting reeks of a very destabilising period, unless this torrent of geopolitical flux settles into some predictability or an order (albeit a fragile one). Before the new order is formed, this transitional phase, marked by disregard for international norms, retraction from internationalism, and a knack for conflict, is a deadly period to be in. This is where miscalculation results in war and destruction.

Unless the major powers recognise the seriousness of ignoring irresponsible behaviours and work to reverse these ongoing trends, this “realism” will continue unchecked. The raw truth is that no one can preempt what’s coming, which is the most dangerous path of this transitional period we find ourselves in."

✍SVI Researcher Hammad Waleed writes for the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research .

🔗Read More: https://thesvi.org/a-world-between-orders-power-shifts-and-the-peril-of-miscalculation/

🌍SVI Analysis |

"The recent conflict between India and Pakistan has upended the widely held notion that conflict escalation in South Asia will follow a sequential pattern. This stepwise escalation pattern has traditionally been conceptualized, using Herman Kahn’s “Ladder of Escalation” model. In the context of South Asia, this model has held significant gravity for a long period of time such as during the Kargil War of 1999, the 2001–2002 military standoff following the attack on the Indian Parliament, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, the purported Uri surgical strike of 2016, and the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, where each side escalated in measured, incremental steps. But quite shockingly in May 2025, we saw a dramatic shift from the traditional notion of escalation to a rapid escalation model, losing the rungs of ladder and moving to a non- linear mode of escalation, unlike the traditional “ladder of escalation” model. This has exacerbated the predictability of unpredictability in the South Asian region."

✍SVI Research Fellow Raja Zarkullah writes for Strafasia.

🔗 Read More: https://thesvi.org/from-ladder-to-elevator-india-pakistan-and-the-end-of-predictable-escalation/

🌍 SVI Analysis |

"New Delhi’s claim of using AI in the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis is an unprecedented development in South Asia, as India had not previously officially acknowledged the use of AI in its military operations. Given this, in future military campaigns, the Indian military will likely employ AI on a larger scale."

✍ Penned down by SVI Researcher Komal Khan .

🔗 Read More: https://thesvi.org/indias-use-of-artificial-intelligence-during-indo-pak-four-day-crisis/

🌍 SVI Analysis |

"The prevailing discourse on arms control and disarmament divides scholars into two categories: optimists who consider existing regimes and treaties as an effective tool to reduce the risk of war, and pessimists who have less faith in the effectiveness of such tools in limiting conflict. The collapse of New START, following Russia's suspension in 2023, dealt the latest blow to nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts. The collapse of such treaties is not actually a cause but a symptom. The root cause is the erosion of political trust between countries, making such arms control initiatives futile. Such an absence of trust has created a gap that is not accidental but deliberate, as states seek strategic flexibility, thereby institutionalizing “no rules” as a dominant feature of the contemporary arms control landscape."

✍ Penned down by SVI Researcher Ayesha Sikandar.

Read More: https://thesvi.org/are-no-rules-the-new-rule-in-contemporary-arms-control-debate/

Highlights from the visit of delegation from Maritime Center of Excellence, Naval War College, Lahore to the Strategic Vision Institute, Islamabad on 21st October, 2025.

🌍 SVI Analysis |

For the last many months, Ukraine-Russia war visuals have been replete with “ Cessna-looking aircraft” striking Russian energy infrastructure deep within Russian territory. These slow moving , light aircraft wreak havoc due to their ability to load themselves with hundreds of kilograms of explosives. These civilian aircraft turned into medium weight drones have replaced sophisticated cruise missile and stand-off munitions. Since last year, imagery from Ukrainian attacks in Russia have shown light-weight A-22 propeller aircraft that have been retrofitted as drones , carrying out deep strikes against industrial and energy infrastructure targets.

Retrofitting of propeller driven light commercial aircraft with drone technology is not new. Rather testing with automated systems has been recurrent in the last decade. The retrofitting of civilian-light commercial and utility aircraft into the role of UCAV is a newer and a disruptive phenomenon.

What can be deduced is that employment of “Cessna-type aircraft” will not be limited to Ukraine. The disruptive nature of how unmanned systems are being advanced and integrated in dual-use systems is simply too rapid, too rapid to monitor and control. The defence industry will offer its services to retrofit drone kits, and gradually, the counter-drone measures. This also provides a blueprint for the future where all currently manned platforms could be used in similar roles : commercial jets, fighter jets, VIP fixed-wing aircraft, and even helicopters. The same AI that would replace pilots for real flights, would be the same that would carry autonomous combat sorties on such platforms, all the while learning, adapting and evolving.

✍SVI Researcher Hammad Waleed pens down his analysis for Global Defense Insight.

🔗 Read More: https://thesvi.org/from-cessnas-to-ucavs-the-low-cost-aircraft-revolution-in-modern-warfare/

🌍SVI Analysis |

"The Saudi–Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) marks a turning point in regional diplomacy by transforming a historic security partnership into a forward-looking alliance that merges defence, energy, and economic cooperation. It strengthens military cooperation while opening avenues for energy and economic collaboration. For Pakistan, it promises stability through investment and energy security. For Saudi Arabia, it aligns with Vision 2030’s goal of diversification beyond oil. It can integrate defence, energy, and technology under one strategic framework. By transforming shared vulnerabilities into shared strengths, the agreement reflects a pragmatic evolution in regional diplomacy, one that redefines security as the fusion of defence, development, and sustainability."

✍ SVI Researcher Sidra Shoukat writes for Islamabad Policy Institute.

🔗 Read More: https://thesvi.org/from-security-to-sustainability-the-deeper-meaning-of-the-saudi-pakistan-defence-pact/

🌍 SVI Analysis |

"Indian acquisition of rail-mobile systems as a fully operational capability remains a distant dream. However, the developmental trajectory of a rapidly growing missile program indicates a shift in Indian nuclear strategy from a recessed deterrent to a ready arsenal for war-fighpting."

✍Penned down by SVI Researcher Saif-ul-Haq for
Stratheia.

🔗Read More: https://thesvi.org/missiles-on-rails-deterrence-off-track/

🌍SVI Analysis |

The Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025 has sent ripples through the geopolitical landscape. Signed amid the ongoing instability in the Middle East, a region grappling with the aftermath of the Gaza conflict, simmering tensions between Israel and Iran, and a growing sense that the United States is no longer a reliable security guarantor, the pact immediately fueled speculation.

Any notion of Pakistan extending nuclear deterrence to Riyadh simply doesn’t align with the foundational tenets of Islamabad’s strategic policy.

The SMDA is not a sudden development but the formalization of a partnership grounded in decades of shared religious, strategic, and economic interests. The bedrock of this relationship has consistently been conventional military support, training, advisory roles, and troop deployments not nuclear promises.

✍️ SVI Researcher Syed Raza Abbas writes for Strategic Forecast .

🔗Read More: https://thesvi.org/the-nuclear-question-saudi-arabia-pakistan-and-the-new-mutual-defence-pact/

SVI In-House Disucssion |

The Strategic Vision Institute organized an In-House discussion on “Revisiting Multilateral Export Control Regimes: Challenges and Opportunities for Pakistan” on 15th October , 2025.

Welcome Remarks were delivered by Dr. Naeem Ahmad Salik, ED SVI.

The speakers included:

- Ambassador Tahir Hussain Andrabi,
Additional Foreign Secretary of Arms Control and Disarmament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs .

- Mr. Zawar H. Abidi, Former Expert in UNSCR 1540 Committee.

The IHD was moderated by SVI Researcher Sidra Shaukat.

SVI Analysis |

“China, as a host of the SCO Summit, tried to project its diplomatic influence and leadership, a voice of the Global South, and a stabilising force in a transitioning world order. The Summit also provided Beijing with an opportunity to showcase unity among SCO member states, which in turn reinforced China’s role as a central pillar within the organisation amid ongoing geopolitical competition with the United States (US).

The meeting between Xi and Modi will not narrow down their difference. This realignment seems to pressure the US by signalling that India had options other than the United States. The symbolic gestures witnessed at the SCO Summit remained far from the geopolitical realities that continue to define the region.

India and China might continue to engage in talks over border disputes and trade; however, these dialogues are not likely to progress beyond tactical engagement to address any meaningful, long-term resolution, as the deep-seated trust deficit and competing strategic ambitions remain insurmountable”

✍ Penned down by SVI Researchers Muhammad Abubaker and Shamil Abdullah Saleh for Islamabad Policy Institute.

🔗 Read More: https://thesvi.org/the-indo-china-rapprochement-the-reality-of-the-sco-meeting/

📚SVI Events |

Highlights from the Book Talk of “ Pakistan-India Relations: Fractured Past, Uncertain Future”authored by Ambassador (Retd) Aizaz Ahmad Chaudary, Former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan.

The event was attended by a diverse group of participants, including representatives from academia, policy think tanks, the diplomatic community, and key stakeholders involved in policymaking.

The book talk was followed by a candid Q&A session.