PICSS -Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies

https://www.picss.net/latest-reports/picss-weekly-insight-pakistans-security-economic-and-diplomatic-landscape-amid-regional-and-global-uncertainties/

PICSS Weekly Insight: Pakistan’s Security, Economic, and Diplomatic Landscape Amid Regional and Global Uncertainties During 27 March – 2 April 2026, militant violence in Pakistan intensified, with 33 attacks recorded nationwide—up from 21 in the previous period—resulting in 26 fatalities and 49 injuries. Balochistan saw the highest number of incidents (17), while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa remained the most lethal, ...

https://www.picss.net/articles/march-sees-35pc-decline-in-terrorism-fatalities-coinciding-with-operation-ghazab-lil-haq-picss/

PICSS DISCUSSION WARNS OF MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT’S FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN

Islamabad, 10 March 2026: The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) convened a Focused Group Discussion (FGD) on “War in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan and Policy Options” on 9 March 2026. The session brought together a distinguished cohort of senior retired military officers, academics, policy analysts, and strategic experts to analyze the evolving Iran–US–Israel confrontation and its potential repercussions for Pakistan’s national security, foreign policy, and internal stability.

Chaired by Maj Gen Muhammad Saad Khattak (retd), Chairman PICSS, the discussion opened with an examination of the broader geopolitical, economic, and security consequences for Pakistan stemming from the volatile situation in the Middle East. The Chairman underscored that Pakistan’s deep economic linkages with the Gulf region, its reliance on energy imports, the presence of a large diaspora, and longstanding diplomatic ties mean that instability in the Middle East can have direct and immediate repercussions for the country’s strategic environment.

Strategic Dynamics and Regional Instability

Participants broadly characterized the ongoing confrontation as a manifestation of a larger geopolitical struggle. While the United States and Israel possess overwhelming military superiority, experts assessed that the likelihood of achieving regime change in Iran remains low due to the resilience of Tehran’s political and security structures. Iran’s primary objective was identified as regime survival.

The discussion highlighted the potential for a prolonged conflict to destabilize the Middle East, possibly drawing Gulf states into a direct confrontation. Such a scenario would risk disrupting global energy supplies through strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, with direct economic consequences for energy-importing nations like Pakistan. Gulf states were seen as facing a strategic dilemma, their security partnerships with Washington contrasting with vulnerabilities exposed by the current crisis.

Pakistan’s Delicate Balancing Act

A central theme of the dialogue was the complex strategic position in which Pakistan finds itself. Participants emphasized the country’s long and porous border with Iran, making stability in its neighbour a paramount concern. Simultaneously, Pakistan maintains deep economic and strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, underpinned by defence cooperation and significant labour migration.

Given these competing interests, experts stressed that Islamabad faces a delicate balancing challenge. The consensus was that Pakistan must avoid direct involvement in the conflict while working assiduously to maintain constructive relations with all regional actors. The country’s broader security environment, including tensions with Afghanistan, the persistent threat of militancy, and rivalry with India, was noted as placing additional pressure on Pakistan’s strategic posture.

Internal Stability and Policy Recommendations

The discussion drew a clear link between external challenges and internal cohesion. Participants argued that Pakistan’s ability to respond effectively to regional crises is inextricably linked to its domestic stability. Political polarization, governance deficits, and economic vulnerabilities were identified as factors that weaken national resilience and could undermine strategic deterrence and diplomatic leverage.

To navigate the evolving situation and safeguard national interests, participants formulated several key policy recommendations:

· Prioritize De-escalation and Diplomacy: Pakistan should actively support diplomatic efforts to prevent conflict expansion and encourage regional dialogue.
· Maintain Strategic Balance: Islamabad must sustain balanced relations with both Iran and the Gulf states, refraining from actions perceived as taking sides.
· Engage Major Powers: Coordinating with major powers like China and Russia could help promote diplomatic solutions.
· Stabilize Western Borders: Improving relations with Afghanistan is essential to reduce tensions and allow Pakistan to focus on broader regional challenges.
· Strengthen Internal Cohesion: Addressing political divisions and improving governance were deemed critical for enhancing national unity and external responsiveness.
· Enhance Economic Resilience: Pakistan must prepare for potential economic shocks, including energy price fluctuations and disruptions in remittance flows.

PICSS Roundtable
“War in the Middle East: Consequences for Pakistan and Policy Options”
9 March 2026
11:00 AM – 1:00 PM
PICSS Conference Hall.

PICSS Conducts Emergency First Aid Training with Pakistan Relief IDEA

ISLAMABAD, February 12, 2026 – The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), in collaboration with Pakistan Relief IDEA, successfully conducted a one-day Emergency First Aid Training (EFAT) workshop at its Islamabad office. The session was hosted and led by Mr. Mujtaba Haider, President of Pakistan Relief Idea along with his colleague Dr. Rizwan, who guided the PICSS team through an intensive hands-on training experience.

The workshop was designed to equip PICSS interns and core team members with essential first aid skills, enabling them to respond effectively in emergency situations. Participants learned critical life-saving techniques, reinforcing the importance of preparedness in both professional and community settings.

Under the expert supervision of Mr. Mujtaba and Dr. Rizwan, the session emphasized practical learning and real-world application, ensuring that participants left with the confidence and knowledge to act swiftly during crises.

Team PICSS took a well-deserved break in the scenic hills of Shah Allah Ditta! A huge shoutout to our very own Director Research, Mr. Guldad, for serving up the most incredible lamb karahi! It was an absolute honor to have our Chairman, Major General Saad Khattak (R), join us for the very first time in an outing. The company was amazing, the food was superb, and the memories are priceless. Looking forward to more adventures to beat the work stress! ✨

*SECURITY WEEKLY: Militant Attacks Decline, But Propaganda and Regional Tensions Rise*

ISLAMABAD, Jan 30, 2026 – Pakistan recorded a notable decrease in militant violence last week, though clashes and propaganda efforts by armed groups continued to challenge stability, particularly in its western regions.

National figures for the week of January 23-29 show 11 attacks, a drop from 17 the previous week. These incidents resulted in 12 fatalities—nine civilians and three militants—and 14 injuries.

The violence remained geographically concentrated. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) bore the heaviest burden with seven attacks, accounting for eight deaths and ten injuries. The former tribal areas (ex-FATA) saw three attacks, and Balochistan reported one, which caused significant disruption to rail traffic despite no casualties.

Tactics varied, with five direct tactical assaults and four improvised explosive device (IED) incidents. The deadliest single event was a su***de bombing at a wedding in Dera Ismail Khan, which killed seven civilians and wounded seven others.

*Security Forces Maintain Pressure*

In response, security forces sustained a high operational tempo, conducting seven major counter-terrorism operations. These raids were most active in KP, Balochistan, and Punjab, culminating in 16 militants killed and two arrested.

Notable successes included the elimination of two senior commanders: Ghafoor, alias Ijaz, of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Farooq, alias Soro, a local commander for the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Operations also led to significant weapons recoveries.

*Propaganda War Intensifies*

Beyond the battlefield, militant groups ramped up their media campaigns. The TTP took the unusual step of releasing propaganda material in Bengali, analysts say in an apparent bid to recruit beyond its traditional Pashtun base.

Multiple groups, including the TTP, Islamic State Punjab Province (ISPP), and Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, seized on Pakistan's recent foreign policy to fuel anti-state narratives. They issued sharp condemnations of Pakistan’s decision to participate in U.S. President Trump’s “Board of Peace” (BoP) for Gaza reconstruction, framing it as a betrayal of Muslim interests.

The ISPP released threats against Baloch nationalist groups, while the BLA’s media wing published a new ideological book by its chief, Bashir Zeb Baloch.

Domestic and Regional Fallout

The government’s BoP announcement, made on January 22 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, triggered significant domestic political backlash. Religious parties, key political forces, and the KP Assembly all voiced strong opposition, with the provincial legislature passing a unanimous resolution rejecting the move.

Relations with Afghanistan further deteriorated amid a steep 56% decline in Pakistani exports to the country and prolonged border issues. Anti-Pakistan rhetoric was prominently featured at a militant funeral in Kabul this week.

Meanwhile, the Taliban administration in Kabul continued a dual policy of selective international engagement participating in trade exhibitions and aid coordination while accelerating internal consolidation through new legal codes and tighter social controls.

PICSS Launches Winter Internship Lecture Series with Discussion on Pakistan-Bangladesh Ties

ISLAMABAD, January 29, 2026 – The Pak Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) inaugurated its Winter Internship 2026 Guest Lecture Series on Thursday with a session focused on the evolving relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The lecture, titled “Recalibrating Pakistan–Bangladesh Relations: Developments of the Last Two Years and Their Geopolitical Implications for South Asia,” was delivered by Ambassador Afrasiab Mehdi, a former High Commissioner of Pakistan to Bangladesh and several other nations.

Ambassador Mehdi anchored his analysis in the foundational Two-Nation Theory and the unifying ideology of Pakistan. He provided a historical overview of Bengali Muslims, describing their societal status before and after the advent of Islam. He stated that while Islamic principles elevated their standing, this shift was never accepted by the Hindu community of the region.

“Bengalis are our Muslim brothers,” emphasized Ambassador Mehdi, “and this fraternal bond cannot be severed. Our relationship with Bangladesh is intrinsically different from our ties with India or any other non-Muslim nation. We have supported them in numerous ways throughout history.”

The former envoy also addressed prevalent historical narratives, specifically countering a widespread claim regarding the 1971 conflict. “A popular conspiracy on social media asserts that 90,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered in Bangladesh. In reality, only 34,000 were military personnel; the remainder were civilians,” he clarified.

The insightful lecture was followed by an engaging question-and-answer session, where interns actively participated, posing queries to Ambassador Mehdi on the diplomatic and geopolitical dimensions of the bilateral relationship.

Guest Lecture Series of our 2026 Winter Internship Program.

We are honored to welcome Ambassador Afrasiab Mehdi Hashmi as the first speaker in our Guest Lecture Series.

Happy New Year! From team PICSS.

In 2025, PICSS remained Pakistan’s most cited and quoted think tank in national and international media.

In 2026, our resolve is clear: credible, unbiased, data-driven insight on Pakistan’s security landscape.

Stay informed with PICSS Weekly and Monthly Insights.

Wishing you a peaceful and secure New Year.

موسسه مطالعات منازعه و امنیت پاکستان (PICSS) گزارش داد که در جریان درگیری‌ها طی سال ۲۰۲۵، دست‌کم ۶۶۴ نیروی امنیتی پاکستان کشته شده‌اند که در مقایسه با سال گذشته افزایش ۲۶ درصدی را نشان می‌دهد.

این آمار بالاترین میزان تلفات نیروهای امنیتی این کشور از سال ۲۰۱۱ تاکنون است و نشان می‌دهد که سال ۲۰۲۵، مرگبارترین سال برای نیروهای امنیتی پاکستان بوده است.

علاوه بر این، حدود ۱ هزار و ۲۵ نیروی امنیتی در طول سال گذشته زخمی شده‌اند که نسبت به سال ۲۰۲۴، ۶۲ درصد افزایش یافته است.

موسسه PICSS افزایش تلفات را ناشی از تشدید درگیری‌ها و ناآرامی‌ها در این کشور دانسته است.

گزارش ها حاکی است که بیشترین تلفات نیروهای امنیتی در ولایت های خیبرپختونخوا و بلوچستان ثبت شده است.

کارشناسان می‌گویند که شدت درگیری‌ها و افزایش عملیات نظامی در این مناطق عامل اصلی بالاترین میزان مرگ‌ومیر نیروهای امنیتی در سال ۲۰۲۵ بوده است.

تلگرام خبرگزاری سریع👈👈https://t.me/sarienews1