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PA/IR/CA BRIEF

Pakistan’s recent geopolitical strides have drawn significant global attention. From an unexpected rapprochement with the United States to strengthening alliances with Gulf nations—most notably a mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia—the country appears to be experiencing a moment of renewed diplomatic confidence. Perhaps most strikingly, Pakistan’s sense of pride has grown after standing its ground against India during a brief military confrontation in May.

Yet, despite these achievements, several analysts caution that Pakistan’s growing global stature must not obscure the serious challenges brewing at home.

The air of triumph is unmistakable when discussing Pakistan’s foreign policy. Billboards across the capital celebrate a week of friendship with Turkey—one of Pakistan’s fastest-growing partnerships—complementing its cordial ties with China, Iran, and Russia.

However, the optimism fades when the discussion shifts to internal security. Pakistan is grappling with a sharp rise in terrorist violence, with government figures reporting 4,373 incidents so far this year. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), operating from Afghan territory, has claimed responsibility for many of these attacks.

In recent weeks, Islamabad has engaged in internationally mediated dialogues with the Taliban government in Afghanistan—another round is expected in Turkey this Thursday (Today)—but few expect Kabul to rein in the TTP, given their close ties.

This leaves Pakistan facing a difficult dilemma: to launch further military strikes on TTP strongholds inside Afghanistan and risk escalation, or to exercise restraint and endure continued attacks on its own soil. Indeed, Pakistan’s most recent airstrikes triggered the deadliest clashes with Afghanistan since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

Even as Pakistan celebrates its military successes against India earlier this year, there are lingering fears that hostilities could reignite. With terrorism and border tensions consuming Islamabad’s focus, many worry that India might seize the opportunity to resume confrontation. Recent live-fire drills on both sides, coupled with new airspace restrictions, have only heightened anxieties.

Economic concerns further compound these security challenges. Pakistan’s apparent stabilization—marked by easing inflation and a more stable currency—has been largely driven by external support, particularly from the International Monetary Fund. Yet structural weaknesses, such as heavy debt and slow reform, continue to constrain sustainable growth.

On the political front, proposed constitutional changes have sparked domestic unease. Critics argue that these amendments could undermine judicial independence and weaken provincial autonomy—threatening Pakistan’s fragile democratic balance.

There is also the question of how long Pakistan’s current geopolitical momentum will last. If Middle Eastern tensions subside, Islamabad’s strategic value to Gulf states could wane. Similarly, U.S. President Donald Trump’s patience may wear thin if economic or security cooperation yields limited returns. History offers a reminder: Pakistan’s importance during the Cold War and post-9/11 eras proved fleeting once global dynamics shifted.

As external attention ebbs, Pakistan will find it harder to divert focus from its internal trials. Still, discussions in Islamabad revealed a growing recognition of the need to use this moment to build durable regional partnerships—beyond the India fixation—and to cooperate with neighbors on long-term goals like digital connectivity, public health, and climate resilience.

Pakistan’s current moment of prominence brings both opportunity and risk. For a nation with a young and ambitious population, the lesson is clear: the future depends not just on short-term victories but on the ability to think strategically, act steadily, and play the long game.

BIHAR POLLS

Officials in the Indian state of Bihar are finalizing preparations for a closely watched election set to take place in two phases — the first on Thursday and the second on November 11. Recent opinion polls indicate that the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), holds a narrow advantage.

As India’s third-most populous state, Bihar represents a major political battleground, and its outcome could influence upcoming elections in other regions. Aware of the stakes, the BJP has deployed its most prominent figures to campaign vigorously. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, one of the party’s most powerful leaders, has addressed multiple rallies across the state in recent days, while Modi himself has made several appearances to rally voter support.
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ASIA-PACIFIC UPDATE

South Korea gave U.S. President Donald Trump a lavish welcome on Wednesday as he arrived in the city of Gyeongju for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Many participating nations are hoping to secure better trade arrangements with Washington amid Trump’s ongoing trade battles — and they are relying on a familiar strategy to win his favor: flattery and grand gestures.

Trump has often portrayed himself in regal terms — from brandishing a ceremonial sword during his inaugural ball to posting “LONG LIVE THE KING” on his Truth Social account. Even the White House’s official X account recently featured a mock Time magazine cover showing Trump wearing a golden crown. Although he insists he does not seek royal status — telling Fox News, “I’m not a king,” and acknowledging that he cannot serve a third term — Trump has continued to allude to the idea in public remarks.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung appeared to understand the appeal. During their Wednesday meeting, Lee presented Trump with a replica of a Silla dynasty gold crown and conferred upon him the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, South Korea’s highest civilian honor — making Trump the first U.S. president ever to receive it. The official banquet also featured a menu tailored to Trump’s tastes: Korean-style American dishes, including seafood salad with Thousand Island dressing and a final course aptly named “Peacemaker’s Dessert.”

This charm offensive has been a recurring theme throughout Trump’s six-day Asia tour. Earlier in Japan, Trump met Emperor Naruhito and newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who emphasized that Tokyo’s alliance with Washington remains Japan’s “top priority.”

The diplomatic overtures appear to be working. On Tuesday, Trump signed a rare-earth minerals agreement and finalized a previously negotiated deal lowering U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods from 25% to 15%, in return for $550 billion in Japanese investment in the U.S. The next day, Trump concluded a trade pact with South Korea that keeps the overall tariff on Korean exports at 15% but reduces duties on automobiles from 25% to 15%.

The deal also grants most-favored nation (MFN) status to South Korea’s pharmaceutical and lumber sectors, and exempts aircraft parts, generic drugs, and non-U.S. natural resources from tariffs. For semiconductors, U.S. tariffs will match or be lower than those applied to Taiwan, South Korea’s main competitor, according to Kim Yong-beom, the presidential chief of staff for policy.

In return, Seoul will invest $350 billion in the U.S. economy — including $200 billion in cash installments and $150 billion for shipbuilding cooperation, capped at $20 billion annually, Kim said.

Trump’s final engagement on his Asia trip is scheduled for Thursday morning, when he meets Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit.

LATEST FROM THE MIDDLE EAST (ME)

The Israeli military reaffirmed on Wednesday that it would adhere to the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, just hours after carrying out the deadliest airstrikes on Gaza since the truce began on Oct. 10. In a separate statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the strikes had targeted dozens of Hamas operatives, along with weapons storage facilities and tunnels used by the group.

The escalation followed accusations by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who claimed on Tuesday that Hamas violated the cease-fire by delivering partial remains of a hostage recovered earlier in the conflict and by killing an Israeli soldier in the southern city of Rafah. In response, Israel launched overnight air raids across Gaza that, according to local officials, killed at least 104 people.

Hamas denied attacking Israeli forces, condemning Israel’s retaliatory strikes as a “criminal bombardment.” The renewed violence drew criticism from international mediators, with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani describing the situation as “very disappointing and frustrating for us.”

Meanwhile, former U.S. President Donald Trump, who helped mediate the cease-fire agreement, offered a more sympathetic stance toward Israel’s response. “As I understand it, they [Hamas] took out an Israeli soldier,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “So, the Israelis hit back — and they should hit back. When that happens, they should hit back.”

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CRUISE MISSILE DEVELOPMENT

Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed on Sunday that Moscow has tested a new nuclear-capable and nuclear-powered cruise missile that has been in production for years. Although the Kremlin didn’t specify which type of missile was tested, Western experts believe it was the Burevestnik.

Little is known about the Burevestnik besides Putin claiming in 2018 that it will have an unlimited range, allowing it to circumnavigate the globe undetected by U.S. missile defense systems. But some Western experts are skeptical of its capabilities, arguing that a nuclear engine could be highly unreliable.

Still, Putin remains adamant that the new missile will soon be deployed to the Russian military. The test comes as Moscow has resisted calls for a cease-fire with Kyiv and cautioned Western powers against supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine and imposing oil and gas sanctions on Russia.

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US & Australia

On Monday, Australia became the latest country to sign a critical minerals agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump, joining a growing coalition aimed at countering China’s dominance in global supply chains. The deal, finalized during Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s visit to the White House, caps months of negotiation and could serve as a strategic tool for Australia in future trade and defense discussions with Washington.

Under the agreement, both governments will invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects within the next six months. This includes establishing an advanced gallium refinery in Western Australia with an annual capacity of 100 metric tons. According to the White House, the recoverable resources from these projects are valued at approximately $53 billion.

“In about a year from now, we’ll have so much critical mineral and rare earths that you won’t know what to do with them,” Trump said on Monday.

China currently dominates global rare-earth supply chains, accounting for about 85 percent of processing and 92 percent of magnet production—especially in heavy rare earths that are essential for U.S. military technology. “Rare earths and critical minerals have become the Achilles’ heel of the United States in its trade tensions with China,” noted Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, former U.S. Energy Department deputy director for batteries and critical minerals, in an interview with FP’s Christina Lu in July.

Australia, however, holds substantial reserves of lithium, cobalt, tungsten, and other essential minerals vital for advanced technologies and renewable energy. The U.S. hopes to leverage Canberra’s resources to lessen its dependency on Beijing.

Just last week, Trump threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, following China’s move to restrict exports of key minerals. Similarly, the Albanese government has sought to diversify Australia’s export markets away from China—even though Beijing remains its largest trading partner, heavily reliant on Australian iron ore and coal.

Beyond minerals, Trump and Albanese also discussed expanding defense ties, including progress on the AUKUS trilateral pact involving Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Valued at nearly $240 billion, the deal will see Australia acquire U.S. nuclear-powered submarines by 2032 and later co-develop a new submarine class with the U.K.

Whether this latest minerals agreement and enhanced defense cooperation will prompt Trump to ease tariffs on Australia remains uncertain. Currently, Washington maintains a 10 percent base tariff on most Australian goods, alongside a 50 percent tariff on steel, aluminum, and certain copper products; 25 percent on auto parts and wood furnishings; and 10 percent on softwood lumber.

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CONGRATULATIONS Talha Shafqat for achieving 20th rank in the CSS 2024 - PAS 🏆

Your hard work and dedication have made us all proud. 🌟
Wishing you continued success and excellence ahead! 💫

CA/IR BRIEF

PAK-AFGHAN TENSIONS

Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed on Wednesday to a 48-hour cease-fire following intense border clashes over the weekend that left dozens dead. Both governments claim that the other side pushed for the truce. Diplomatic sources said Qatar and Saudi Arabia intervened to de-escalate the fighting, amid fears that the renewed hostilities could create space for terrorist organizations like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda to regroup in the region.

For years, Pakistan has accused the Taliban of sheltering militants responsible for killing hundreds of its security personnel. Kabul continues to reject these accusations, despite U.N. reports suggesting that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has received financial backing from Afghanistan’s Taliban government.

Earlier this year, a series of China-brokered talks appeared to signal a thaw in relations between the two neighbors. However, tensions flared last Thursday when the Taliban accused Pakistan of orchestrating two explosions and an airstrike in Kabul—the same day Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited India for the first time since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Islamabad has neither confirmed nor denied involvement in the incidents.

The ensuing violence, with each side blaming the other for starting it, has resulted in the deaths of more than 200 Taliban fighters and about 58 Pakistani soldiers. Afghanistan also alleges that Pakistan’s strikes killed over a dozen civilians and injured more than 100 others, a claim Islamabad firmly denies.

LATEST FROM NATO

NATO defense ministers convened in Brussels on Wednesday to announce new, large-scale military aid commitments to Kyiv. The pledges are part of a fast-track program that allows European countries and Canada to purchase U.S. weapons and other equipment—such as air defense systems, radar systems, and ammunition—to give to Ukraine in its war against Russia. Ukrainian Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal has estimated that Kyiv will need $60 billion in foreign assistance in 2026 to stave off Moscow’s assault.

Among the pledges made on Wednesday, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius vowed to purchase $500 million worth of U.S. weapons as part of a more than $2 billion aid package. Berlin will also separately provide Ukraine with “another two Iris-T air defense systems, including a large number of guided missiles, as well as shoulder-fired air defense missiles,” Pistorius said.

Meanwhile, Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, and Sweden joined the fast-track program on Wednesday. According to NATO chief Mark Rutte, more than half of the alliance has now signed onto the initiative, adding that participation in the program will count toward members’ minimum defense spending requirement, which is 5 percent of their GDPs.

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LATEST FROM MIDDLE EAST (ME)

Israeli forces opened fire on Palestinians in northern Gaza on Tuesday, killing at least six people. The Israeli military stated that troops had targeted individuals who crossed the U.S.-brokered “yellow line,” which marks the boundary of Israel’s partial withdrawal from the area.

According to Israeli officials, this incursion breached the terms of the Israel-Hamas peace agreement that took effect four days earlier. However, a Palestinian news outlet reported that Israeli drones had attacked residents who were inspecting their damaged homes. It remains unclear whether this was the same incident Israel cited as an act of defense near the yellow line.

The shooting occurred just a day after top mediators, including U.S. President Donald Trump, gathered in Egypt to formalize the Gaza cease-fire accord. During his address to Israel’s Knesset on Monday, Trump emphasized that he expects Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to uphold the truce. Israel had previously violated the last cease-fire in March.

Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas carried out a long-awaited hostage exchange on Monday. Hamas released all 20 surviving hostages along with the bodies of four deceased captives, while Israel freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Publicly, Israel condemned Hamas for not returning the remains of the remaining 24 slain hostages, as required under the U.S.-negotiated deal. Privately, however, officials acknowledged that recovery could take time, since some of the bodies may lie under rubble or in areas no longer under Hamas’s control. According to UN satellite data, over 80 percent of Gaza’s infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed during the conflict.

Negotiations in Egypt have now turned to the next steps of the cease-fire deal.

Three major issues remain unresolved:

Hamas’s disarmament: Israel insists on full demilitarization, while local reports suggest that militants are already trying to reclaim evacuated areas. Sources close to the talks indicate that Hamas may agree to partial disarmament but continues to reject complete demilitarization.

Gaza’s governance: Hamas has expressed willingness to transfer administrative control to a Palestinian technocratic government, provided it operates under the Palestinian Authority and not an external entity. This position contradicts Trump’s 20-point plan, which calls for an international transitional administration.

Reconstruction of Gaza: With over 67,000 Palestinians dead, hundreds of thousands in need of aid, and nearly the entire 2.1 million population displaced, rebuilding the enclave will be a massive challenge. The process may face further obstacles after Israel announced it would keep the Rafah crossing with Egypt closed on Wednesday—despite the peace deal’s requirement to facilitate greater humanitarian access.

LATEST FROM US-CHINA

China and the United States imposed new port fees on ocean shipping companies on Tuesday, heightening tensions in their ongoing trade war. The additional charges are expected to disrupt supply chains between the two largest global economies and may jeopardize an upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea.

The trade conflict began in March when Trump initiated tariff measures against China, leading to multiple negotiation rounds aimed at reducing steep tariff levels. Tensions escalated last Friday after Trump threatened a new wave of 100 percent tariffs in response to Beijing’s decision to expand export controls on rare earth elements and related technologies—restrictions set to take effect in November and December.

In addition to these tariffs, Trump introduced new fees targeting commercial vessels connected to China, referencing a Biden-era investigation that accused Beijing of using unfair practices to dominate the global shipping, logistics, and shipbuilding industries.

Beijing retaliated by announcing special fees on ships owned, operated, built, or registered in the United States, while exempting Chinese-built vessels. “If the U.S. chooses confrontation, China will see it through to the end,” China’s Commerce Ministry declared on Tuesday. “If it chooses dialogue, China’s door remains open.”

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Manipulation continues!

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/al-jazeera-appoints-new-director-general-and-unveils-major-leadership-changes
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Al Jazeera appoints new director general, unveils major leadership changes Qatar-funded broadcaster appoints former foreign ministry official to top role and announces sweeping changes in company-wide restructure

Current Affairs (CA)/ International Relations (IR) Brief

-Latest on Palestine-Israel-

Israel and Hamas started indirect talks in Egypt on Monday. The talks focus on the first phase of a peace plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Hamas has accepted parts of a proposed cease-fire and hostage-exchange, but some important details are still unresolved. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in Gaza have kept going, even though Trump has demanded a halt.

Last month, Trump — standing with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — proposed a multi-step plan. In the first step, Hamas would release all remaining hostages within 72 hours in return for Palestinian prisoners. About 50 people are still held in Gaza; roughly 20 of them are believed to be alive. On Friday, Hamas agreed to the basic idea of a hostage swap and to Israeli forces pulling back to the position they held in August (called the “yellow line”).

U.S. officials called this the closest chance yet to free all hostages.

Monday’s talks were expected to focus on the exact terms of the hostage exchange and the partial Israeli withdrawal. Israel’s team was led by top negotiator Ron Dermer. Hamas’s delegation was led by Khalil al-Hayya. A U.S. special envoy was also present.

Trump posted on social media urging everyone to move quickly, warning that delay could lead to more bloodshed.

But big disagreements remain. Hamas wants clear guarantees that Israel will actually withdraw its troops after hostages are released. Hamas has not agreed to fully disarm or to give up any role in Gaza’s future government. Under Trump’s plan, Gaza would be run at first by a technocratic Palestinian committee with international experts and supervised by an international transitional body that the U.S. president would lead.

Foreign ministers from eight mostly Muslim countries welcomed the step toward a cease-fire, but they said the Palestinian Authority (which governs parts of the West Bank) should run Gaza. Trump’s plan says the Palestinian Authority would only take over after completing certain reforms.

These talks are happening right before the two-year anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, so a final agreement before that date looks unlikely. The risk of a wider war still hangs over the region. Israel’s military chief warned that if negotiations fail, fighting could resume.

-Australia and Papua New Guinea Sign Defense Pact-

Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) signed a historic defense treaty on Monday to strengthen their military cooperation. This is Australia’s only major defense agreement apart from its 1951 ANZUS Treaty with the U.S. and New Zealand — and it’s the first such treaty in PNG’s history. The deal will become official after both countries’ parliaments approve it.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that both countries have agreed not to make any deals or take actions that go against this treaty. This statement upset China, which claims the agreement is aimed at excluding Beijing.

Australia continues to stand with Western allies, but PNG has also tried to maintain good trade relations with China. PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape said his country does not want to make enemies in the region. However, experts believe the new treaty could strain PNG’s ties with China.

The U.S. Commerce Department expanded its export blacklist on Monday to include 28 new companies. A handful of these corporations have allegedly violated international sanctions by supplying Russia with military equipment, such as components for unmanned aerial drones.

Firms from Russia, China, Pakistan, Finland, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany were targeted.

“Our actions send a clear message to those trying to evade our export controls that there will be consequences for behavior that seeks to undermine U.S. national security interests,” said Alan Estevez, the undersecretary of commerce for industry and security.

https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3335-2023-09-25-bis-release-28-entity-list-additions/file
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