02/10/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 15
Typhoon (KOINU)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 03 October 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
TYPHOON βJENNYβ MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of the eye of Typhoon JENNY was estimated based on all available data at 350 km East of Basco, Batanes (20.3Β°N, 125.3Β°E)
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 205 km/h, and central pressure of 945 hPa
Present Movement: West Northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2:
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Batanes
TCWS No. 1:
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Santa Maria, San Pablo, Tumauini, Cabagan, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Santo Tomas, Dinapigue, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Quirino, Delfin Albano, Quezon, Mallig), Apayao, the northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong), the northern portion of Kalinga (Balbalan, Pinukpuk, Rizal, City of Tabuk), and Ilocos Norte
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall for today
β’ 50-100 mm: Batanes and Babuyan Islands
Forecast accumulated rainfall for tomorrow
β’ 100-200 mm: Batanes
β’ 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
In addition, JENNY will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the western portions of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next 3 days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 5 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
β’ Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
β’ Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The most likely highest Wind Signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3.
The enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon by JENNY will bring gusty conditions for the next 3 days over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
β’ Today: Aurora, Bataan, Bulacan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, and most of MIMAROPA and Western Visayas.
β’ Tomorrow: Bataan, the southern portion of Aurora, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Romblon, and most of Bicol Region.
β’ Thursday: Romblon and portions of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
β’ Under the influence of JENNY, a Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters along the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today.
β’ JENNY will also bring moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.5 m) over the coastal waters of northern Aurora. Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
β’ JENNY is forecast to move northwestward or west northwestward until tomorrow morning or afternoon before turning generally westward thereafter. On the track forecast, JENNY will make landfall over the southern portion of Taiwan between tomorrow late evening or Thursday morning then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) between Thursday morning and afternoon. Outside the PAR region, JENNY will continue moving westward slowly over the Taiwan Strait towards the coastal waters of southern China.
β’ JENNY is likely at or near its peak intensity. A weakening trend is forecast to begin today due to increasing dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Land interaction during its passage over the rugged terrain of southern Taiwan will further weaken the tropical cyclone. Once over the Taiwan Strait, additional cool dry air from the north will entrain into JENNY, resulting in continued weakening.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA