NARRA Survival Camp

*Effects of El Niño in the Philippines - 2026 update*

El Niño is the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean that messes with our weather. PAGASA + NOAA confirmed it’s already here as of June 2026 and will likely last until early 2027. It’s expected to get stronger into “moderate-to-strong” by late 2026, with ∼92% chance. Some models even show “very strong” peak Nov 2026-Jan 2027. 808b1b0f

Here’s what it means for the Philippines:

# # # *1. Weather pattern flip: Wet first, dry later*
1. *June-Sept 2026*: Habagat/southwest monsoon still active, so western PH including Luzon still gets heavy rain + flooding. Typhoons that enter can be fewer but stronger, with more rain or stronger winds. PAGASA expects 9-13 cyclones until Nov 2026.
2. *Nov 2026 onwards*: Rainfall drops. Dry spells + drought risk start.
3. *Q1 2027*: Warmest + driest phase. Highest drought risk. 1b0fdfbd

# # # *2. Water + dams*
1. *Low dam levels*: Angat Dam, which supplies 97% of Metro Manila, already fell below 180m minimum to ∼164m. Irrigation releases were suspended to protect drinking water.
2. *47 areas at risk of “dry condition”* by end Nov 2026 = 21-60% less rain for 2 months straight. Includes Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Bulacan.
3. *Water conservation*: PNP + DENR already issued water-saving protocols. Expect water rationing/distribution trucks if shortages hit. 1b0fb8d79085

# # # *3. Agriculture + food supply*
1. *Rice/crops*: DA projects rice output could drop by up to 700,000 metric tons, ∼3.5% of national target under strong El Niño. Farm output Q1 2026 was already flat due to El Niño effects.
2. *Farmers hit hard*: Irrigation cutbacks affect rice granaries like Central Luzon. DA is shifting to drought-tolerant crops like munggo, camote, cassava.
3. *Prices*: Food supply disruption + lower harvest = higher food prices likely. 1b0fbaddaf7302770667

# # # *4. Health + environment*
1. *Heat*: Higher temps = heat exhaustion, heat stroke risk. April 2026 already hit 41°C heat index in Central Visayas.
2. *Disease*: Standing water + heat can spike dengue, cholera, diarrhea, skin diseases.
3. *Coral reefs*: Higher sea temps = coral bleaching. Every strong El Niño since 1998 caused mass bleaching. PH is in Coral Triangle so reefs are vulnerable. abb3c7b91b0f

# # # *5. Energy*
Hydropower + cooling water for power plants get stressed. Analysts warn electricity rates may go up + power outages loom as plants struggle. 7f0d

# # # *Calabarzon specifically*
You’re in the “western section” that still gets Habagat rain until Sept. But Rizal, Laguna, Cavite are on PAGASA’s list for dry conditions by Nov. So expect:
1. Heavy rain + possible floods now until Sept
2. Water shortages + hotter temps Oct 2026-March 2027 808bb8d7

# # # *What gov’t + people are doing*
1. *DA*: Cloud seeding, solar irrigation, earlier planting, drought-tolerant seeds
2. *PNP/LGUs*: Water conservation, pipeline checks, water trucks on standby
3. *You can do*: Store water, fix leaks, plant drought-tolerant crops, avoid burning during dry months, stay hydrated 429f9085ab4f

Last Tuesday, May 19, Narra Survival Camp conducted a highly relevant and timely webinar titled “Managing Economic and Energy Disruptions in Times of Conflict”—delivered exclusively to employees of TELUS Digital Philippines, one of Narra’s corporate partners. The webinar was part of a monthly series of webinars on survival.

Indeed, this new war in the Middle East has exposed the structural vulnerability of the Philippine economy. The webinar explained how conflicts could impact economic stability and energy supply, and how individuals and organizations could respond effectively. Participants gained insights into the nature and impact of these disruptions, the importance of proactive preparedness, and practical strategies to build resilience and navigate through challenges.

Dr. Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes served as the webinar resource speaker. Dr. Ser, the Co-Founder of Narra Survival, happens to be an economist by profession. He is a tenured faculty member of the Department of Economics of Ateneo de Manila University. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development. He is also a regular guest in various media interviews covering news about the economy.

TELUS Digital University Webinar: Managing Economic and Energy Disruptions in Times of Conflict

Google Meet

Tuesday, May 19, 2026
10:00 PM to 11:30 PM

Tonight, Narra Survival Camp, through the efforts of its Chief Executive Officer and Founder, Mr. Alf Peña-Reyes, and its Co-Founder, Dr. Ser Peña-Reyes, conducted a re-run of its webinar titled “Disaster Preparedness: The Big One”—delivered exclusively to employees of TELUS Digital Philippines, one of Narra’s corporate partners. The webinar is part of a monthly series of webinars on survival.

Indeed, “The Big One” is not just a possibility. It is something we all need to be ready for—always. The webinar was packed with knowledge, practical tips, simple safety measures, and real talk about what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. We should not panic. We should always be prepared for ourselves and the people we care about.

Mr. Nestor “Pons” Ponce III served as the webinar resource speaker. Pons has had close to two decades of experience in the fast-moving consumer goods industry, where he has taken on leadership roles. He graduated from Ateneo de Manila University with a degree in Management Engineering. On top of his sterling career in the corporate world, Pons is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (BJJ) black belter. Thus far, he has already competed in a total of 261 matches, and he is still active. He has been strongly advocating for safety and first aid in sports competitions; in fact, he has instituted such measures in the three BJJ academies he put up in Bangkok and Manila. Based in Bangkok, Pons had first-hand experience of a major earthquake in that part of the globe, where he had to rely on the same survival knowledge shared in the webinar. Pons also hosts his own podcast titled Relentless Asia. He is a member of Toastmasters International, with two years of experience in public speaking, coaching, and mentoring. He participated in the 2020 Toastmasters Thailand and became an International Speech Competition winner.

TELUS Digital University Webinar: Disaster Preparedness: The Big One

Google Meet

Wednesday, April 22, 2026
7:30 PM to 9:00 PM