Koi Tū Centre For Informed Futures

The brain drain debate is missing part of the story. Yes, departures of New Zealand citizens have surged since COVID-19. But migration has long been a two-way flow, temporary emigration is embedded in Kiwi culture, and immigration brings skills and talent into the country.

Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures’ new paper asks whether recent trends reflect a sudden brain drain crisis, a temporary post-COVID-19 adjustment, or a structural shift towards more permanent emigration.

Read Brain drain or business as usual? Looking past the headlines: https://informedfutures.org/brain-drain/
Register for the webinar: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_xVbccRZMRser7aL7Xf504A

Brain drain or business as usual? Looking past the headlines – Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures New Zealand’s migration story is more complex than the current “brain drain” narrative suggests, according to a new Koi Tū paper, which warns that gaps in data and simplistic analysis are limiting public understanding of migration trends.

New Zealand needs a long-term and non-partisan population strategy to prepare for major demographic shifts. People, place and prosperity: The case for a population strategy argues that New Zealand’s rapidly changing demographic make-up has reached a critical point.

A long-term plan is now essential to ensure alignment between workforce, infrastructure, public services, regional development, migration settings and New Zealand’s evolving population.

Read the report from Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures here: informedfutures.org/population

What holds a society together when it’s under pressure? The Royal Commission’s latest report on New Zealand’s COVID-19 response points clearly to trust and social cohesion as critical factors.
But trust is something that changes over time, and in many parts of the world, it’s under pressure.

In this article, Sir Peter Gluckman, Dr Annalise Higgins and Georgia Lala of Koi Tu explore why a broader lens is needed:

It’s time to talk about societal resilience – Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures The second report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s COVID-19 response which has just been released, makes a key observation: trust and social cohesion were central to the country’s navigation of the pandemic. That reflection is both timely and important. Protecting these impo...

A new review in The Lancet, co-authored by Dr Felicia Low of Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures, highlights the role of boys’ and men’s health in shaping pregnancy outcomes, child development, and family wellbeing.

The research brings together biological and social evidence showing that health and life experiences across the male life course can influence outcomes for mothers and children.
The authors say boys and young men remain an under-recognised group for preconception health interventions.

Read the review on The Lancet (paywalled)

More equitable preconception health: paternal life course opportunities for better pregnancy, child, and family outcomes Men and partners are important contributors to the health of future generations, yet their own preconception health and wellbeing remain secondary considerations in research, practice, and policy. Siloed research has exacerbated this deficit. Clinical research typically has a narrow focus on proxima...

“Detractors need not focus on a major party reaching out across the aisle as a sign of weakness,” write Koi Tū’s Sir Peter Gluckman and Dr Annalise Higgins in Newsroom today in an article reflecting on the role of collaboration in New Zealand’s MMP system.

“Rather they should see that as a victory for the underlying intent of MMP: enabling pragmatic politics that can get beyond extreme ideological positions or, more cynically, political positioning ahead of an election.”

Read the full article:

Crossing the aisle is a strength, not a weakness Opinion: The intent of MMP was to encourage collaboration across parties

Children and young people’s mental health is worsening globally.

In New Zealand, the situation is particularly concerning. One in five young people experience high levels of psychological distress, and New Zealand has among the highest youth su***de rates among high-income countries.

In a new Koi Tū perspective piece, Dr Felicia Low explores how an evolutionary framework can explain why experiences during pregnancy and early childhood may shape the development of anxiety later in life.

Read more:

A new way of thinking about child and youth anxiety – Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures The worsening global state of children and young people’s mental health is a pressing concern, and New Zealand children in particular are doing it tough.

Koi Tū fellow Dr Jess Stubbing, a clinical psychologist and researcher, and Assistant Professor at Harvard, was a keynote at Youthline’s inaugural youth mental health summit at Parliament this week.

The event called for cross-party support and a more coordinated model of care to better support young New Zealanders facing growing mental health challenges since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Jess cautioned that the worst for New Zealand may still be ahead.

"I'm seeing more and more younger people, who are coming in at a younger age with really significant need, and a lot of that is young people who were in their very formative, early years during Covid, when their families were stressed, the country was stressed, we were all divided, and that affects us, that affects how we grow up."

Read more about the summit on RNZ

Spike in children under 12 needing mental health support The increase of mental health distress among youths is a global trend, with the Covid-19 pandemic responsible for a lot of it, experts say.

New Zealand’s productivity gap didn’t emerge overnight. It won’t be solved overnight, either.

For decades, New Zealand’s labour productivity has fallen behind comparable small advanced economies. Today it sits around 40% below leading OECD economies, reflecting years of delayed and fragmented policy responses.

In a new Koi Tū perspective piece, Dr Christopher Erwin argues that the problem is not a lack of ideas about how to improve productivity. Steps such as investing in science, supporting innovation, and improving infrastructure are widely recognised.

“The question is no longer whether we know what to do,” writes Chris. “It is whether we are willing to stop postponing it.”

Read the commentary:

Productivity: There is a solution – Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures The hardest part of many tasks is simply getting started. When we procrastinate, the task is relegated to the future. Action is postponed, and by delaying, the task itself grows. Not only does the original work remain, but we must also contend with the additional burden created by delay. What once r...

Sir Peter Gluckman recently spoke at IIT Mumbai about how science is transforming, from AI and big data to shifting global research power and rising geopolitical pressures. He emphasised the need to sustain trust in science and strengthen science diplomacy to address global challenges.
Read our full summary here:

Science in Transition: Sir Peter Gluckman speaks at IIT Mumbai – Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures Sir Peter Gluckman, Director of Koi Tū and President of the International Science Council, delivered a keynote address at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mumbai on the changing landscape of science and its role in global futures.

“Many past decisions which we now see as mistakes can be seen as a failure of foresight – a set of tools that New Zealand policy makers and politicians have been reluctant to use,” write Sir Peter Gluckman and Dr Christopher Erwin of Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures on BusinessDesk.

“Whether New Zealand remains an advanced economy will depend more on our willingness to better govern with foresight than on retrospective blaming. But foresight has not been one of New Zealand’s consistent strengths.”

Read the opinion piece on BusinessDesk (paywalled):

Govt must look beyond political gains in R&D reform By Sir Peter Gluckman and Dr Christopher Erwin from the Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures.Recent commentary has suggested that former Prime Minister Rober...