Adageje Lanre Omo-Agege

....and the fight continues,will fubara be impeached?

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President Muhammadu Buhari.
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Coalition of Existential Docility: Old Wine in a New Bottle?
By Adageje Jubriel,p.k.a. Omo-Agege

Politics, at its core, is a science — not fiction, friction, or a Nollywood script. It is built on data, public perception, tested capacity, and above all, credibility. This is why the sudden formation of a new coalition — described by Engr. Joe Igbokwe as a “coalition of existential docility” — raises more questions than it answers.
Following the euphoria that accompanied the announcement of this so-called coalition of political veterans and ex-power brokers, one must ask: What next? Beyond the media drama, is there a real strategy? Can this alliance of old power players galvanize the Nigerian populace and unseat a sitting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027?
Let us assess the capacity and relevance of the key political figures involved.

Southwest – Rauf Aregbesola: Diminishing Returns
Rauf Aregbesola, former Osun State governor and ex-minister, is presented as the coalition’s arrowhead in the Southwest. But how many votes can he deliver in Osun, a state where his political relevance has waned? Even within the APC, his influence has been contested and largely neutralized. Across the Southwest, his reach is even more questionable.

South-South – Rotimi Amaechi: The Lone Ranger
Rotimi Amaechi is no doubt a political heavyweight in Rivers State — or at least, he was. Since leaving office, Amaechi’s grip on Rivers politics has weakened considerably, especially after recent internal crises. How many votes can he truly command in Rivers today, let alone across the entire South-South? Without a viable structure, his influence appears symbolic at best.

Southeast – Peter Obi: A Fading Echo?
Peter Obi, the 2023 surprise contender, inspired hope among millions, especially the youth. But in 2027, with religion likely playing a less significant role, can Obi replicate his previous numbers? Coalition politics requires compromise, yet Obi’s supporters often demand ideological purity. Will he still appeal to a broader Nigerian audience in this coalition mix?

Northwest – Nasir El-Rufai: Technocrat Without Turf
Former Kaduna State governor Nasir El-Rufai is credited with administrative boldness but little grassroots love. His party struggled in Kaduna during the 2023 elections — while he was still governor. Can he now deliver votes in the wider Northwest as a retired political general with declining public approval?

Northcentral – David Mark & Gabriel Suswam: Legacy or Liability?
David Mark and Gabriel Suswam, both of Benue political origin, once held sway in Nigeria’s political landscape. But politics is about currency — not history. Can either of them still mobilize large-scale support in Benue, let alone across the Northcentral region? Their legacy is not matched by current relevance.

Northeast – Atiku Abubakar: Perennial Aspirant
Atiku Abubakar has contested for the presidency more times than anyone in Nigeria's Fourth Republic. While he commands respect, voter fatigue and repeated electoral defeats have blunted his edge. Even in Adamawa, his stronghold, the 2023 elections exposed cracks in his support base. What more can he offer now?

The Elephant in the Room: What Have They Achieved?
Collectively, these men have held Nigeria’s highest offices for 16, 20, even 24 years — as governors, senators, ministers, and even vice president. What transformational legacy have they left? What do they bring to this coalition besides tired rhetoric and recycled ambition?
Rather than offer hope, this coalition appears to Nigerians as a political recycling plant — old wine in a new bottle. A parade of power players seeking relevance after their expiration dates. A grouping that is long on ego but short on innovation. And in today’s Nigeria, that simply won’t fly.
As for those already celebrating this coalition as a game-changer, allow us to chuckle — not in Hausa, Yoruba, or Igbo — but in Swahili. Because truly, “I am laughing at them in Swahili.”

Adageje Jubriel
JMG, National Cordinator
Editor-in-Chief Political Cave Magazine analyst, commentator, and writer.
Email: [email protected] | Twitter:

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Good things take time!

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