WealthFort

BOND YIELDS ARE RISING AMID THE OIL CRISIS

As the oil crisis enters its 8th week, bond yields have risen to worrying levels that could unravel the pension funds that invested in them (bonds are often seen as a safe haven), and cause global inflation to spike.

Besides the rise in crude oil prices, prices of urea and sulfur have also risen in tandem. For many countries that have not diversified their energy base, crude oil is the primary source of energy to power the economy. A country that cannot meet the demand will see a slowdown in economic activities after the oil reserves run out. Many countries in Asia and Europe are facing this prospect.

Urea and sulphur are needed to synthesise fertilisers, without which, global crop production will be at risk. Right now, the number of US farmers declaring bankruptcy US has risen +46% YoY due to the high cost of diesel and fertilisers. The US is a top grain exporter. India, which is a top rice producer and exporter, is facing a major shortage of fertilisers needed to ensure food security. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for longer periods, many countries will experience starvation and famine. The chart below shows how fertilisers impact the global population.

The bond market is pricing in high inflation. US bond yields are rising, with the 10Y yield is 4.40%. The US Treasury is desperately trying to cap the yield via YCC (Yield Curve Control). For the unaware, the US Treasury bought back USD47B of its own bonds in April. Yes, you read that correctly. It is issuing debt to buy back its own debt. Total government debt is now USD39.2T and will exceed USD40T by the end of this year!

In Europe, the UK's 10Y yield is 5.05% - the highest in a decade. Germany's 10Y yield is 3.10% - the highest in a decade. Japan's 10Y yield is 2.5% - the highest since the late 1990s. The Yen is now trading above 160 to the Dollar. Inflation will resume its rise. Meanwhile, the BOJ is trying to address the crisis through narratives. Japanese pension funds are imploding as many have invested in JGBs when yields were in the negative territory. The 10Y yield, for example, has gone up more than 9x. The BOJ can hike interest rates to arrest the free fall in the Yen. But it can't because Japan's public debt is 250% of its GDP. So, it continues to address the crisis through narratives. This could only end in tears for the population as inflation spirals out of control and pension funds get destroyed.

The stock market is mispricing the risks. The bond market is not.

PC Wong

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✨ Selamat Menyambut Hari Raya Aidilfitri! ✨

May the spirit of Syawal fill your home with warmth, your heart with gratitude, and your days with laughter shared among those you love most. 🌙

As we celebrate this blessed occasion, may Allah shower you and your family with endless mercy, good health, and abundant joy today and always. 🤲💛

Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri! Maaf Zahir dan Batin 🙏

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THE COMING PAIN IS MORE THAN OIL AND GAS

Many are unaware of the repercussions of the war currently engulfing the Middle East. It is not just about oil and gas affecting the energy and transportation sectors, but the manufacturing sector as a whole. Inflation will be rampant.

The destruction of oil and gas facilities in the region will take months or years to repair and replace, depending on the extent of the damage. Even though the war has ended, inflation will still remain until full production from the oil and gas facilities is resumed.

This oil crisis will be worse than the one in the 1970s. On top of that, we will face a food crisis.

Other than oil and gas, the Gulf countries are major exporters of urea and sulphur. Both are important ingredients in synthesising fertilisers. Sulphur is also converted to sulphuric acid, which is used in chemical manufacturing and for leaching minerals from the ore.
Without fertilisers, global food production will drop, and many countries will starve.

Due to the multi-prong crises, countries are becoming more nationalistic, prohibiting the exports of critical commodities needed by the global economy. Supply chains will break down, and the global economy will sputter. Poor countries will be bereft of the means to access energy and food. Middle-income countries will see more people falling into the lower-income group, especially when the economy is heavily reliant on debt.

Now is the time to be prudent, manage your finances well by reducing debt, and make contingencies in your savings.

The commodities sector will likely benefit from the current crisis due to the breakdown in the supply chain.

Another potential crisis is the private credit crisis now erupting in the US. The US stock market looks vulnerable. Private credit is what drives the growth economy. When the funds run out, the growth economy will suffer. The Gulf countries have been major investors in the AI industry. Now that their money generating facilities are in shambles, there won't be any more money coming in. In fact, many are pulling out their investments from the US. Rebuilding their respective countries from the ashes of war takes top priority.

Just my two cents.

PC Wong

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🧧 Happy Chinese New Year 2026! As we welcome the Year of the Horse, may this new beginning bring you renewed energy, resilience, and success. Wishing you joy, prosperity, and countless reasons to celebrate. Gong Xi Fa Cai! 🧨✨

🪭Follow Shane on Instagram for his personal life update:
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🪭Subscribe to our Telegram for daily investment content info:
https://t.me/mywealthfort

🪭Subscribe to our YouTube channel for webinar replays:
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🪭Open a Webull Account
🎁 Get FREE RM200 worth of NVIDIA shares when you deposit RM1,000 or more (T&Cs applies): https://www.webull.com.my/k/wf

🪭Open a Moomoo Account
🎁Deposit RM1,000 or more → Get RM100 + RM50 rewards by using our Exclusive Code: WF40 (T&C Applies): https://start.moomoo.com/00Jox7

If you have any enquiries, please do not hesitate to WhatApp us at +6017-2595688.

USD DEVALUATION

Trump is undaunted by the devaluation of the USD. This signals a change in policy. Perhaps Trump wants a cheaper USD to boost exports while helping to deflate the debt. it will also helped relocation of factories back into the US.

However, this will cause higher inflation and the loss of the USD as a reserve currency. Central banks now hold more gold than USTs. The situation will worsen if the inflation causes UST yields to spike.

The Trump Admin is almost certain to let gold run. In so doing, it could revalue gold to its current market value and use the amount to do several things:

1) Issue gold backed Treasury Bonds to draw investors interest. This will help to tamper the demand for higher yields.
2) Use the appreciated value to offset a portion of the debt. The gold is still valued at around USD42.22 in the Treasury. At a stroke of the pen, the gold is valued around 123x higher based on current price. But I suspect the Trump admin would allow gold to reach unprecedented highs
3) With the increased in the value of gold, the Trump Admin could use a portion of it to buy BTC, thus pushing the price of BTC higher, then use the increased value of BTC to offset the debt. Trump has mentioned using BTC to offset the debt a few times in interviews but according to the Trump Admin, they intend to do so without using debt. Only option then is to allow gold to go higher and use the revaluation to buy BTC.

We are moving towards a redefinition of the global financial system. Hong Kong is geared to replace the LBMA as a gold trading hub backed by the SGE (Shanghai Gold Excnage).

The SGE now has almost 100 tonnes of gold warrants. These gold warrants will be used as liquidity provider for intenraitonal trade and finance, offsetting the USTs as a liquidity provider.

We are witnessing 'live' a global financial restructuring event.

PC Wong

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How much is your company worth today—and what can you do to increase it?

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4 MINERALS THAT MATTER

4 minerals which should be on everyone's radar:
Gold - Destruction in value of government bonds.
Silver - 45 yrs of suppression + monetary/industrial demand + global shortage
Uranium + Copper - Electrification of infrastructure needed to power AI + grid security + supply deficit



4 minerals which should be on everyone's radar:
Gold - Destruction in value of government bonds.
Silver - 45 yrs of suppression + monetary/industrial demand + global shortage
Uranium + Copper - Electrification of infrastructure needed to power AI + grid security + supply deficit

PC Wong

GOT GOLD?

Gold is surging, not only due to geopolitical events, but also what's happening to government bonds across the world. When even a government's backed asset cannot be trusted, then there is only gold. Silver is surging because of a broken system in the COMEX and LBMA which has suppressed the price for 45 years, resulting in global shortage. Silver is also money which is why it follows gold.

PC Wong

As we head into 2026, markets continue to be shaped by shifting economic conditions, global policy decisions, and changing investor sentiment. The year began surprisingly with the U.S. launching military strikes against Venezuela. The U.S. plans to seize their oil and run their country until there is a proper transition of power.

What is the impact of this geopolitical shift in the Western Hemisphere?
How aggressive will the Fed cut the interest rate in this year?
What it means to the Malaysian market?

Join us in this webinar as we invite our speaker, Mr. Shane Choo, to dive into the U.S. economy and market outlook, followed by a closer look at Malaysia’s economic landscape and market analysis. We've also invited the warrant specialist from RHB Investment Bank, Ms. Vanessa Tong, to share with you how to use structured warrants effectively in this volatile time to capture trading opportunities.

In this 1.5-hr webinar, you'll learn:
✅ Review of 2025 market performance
✅ U.S. economy and market analysis
✅ Malaysia economy and sector analysis
✅ Key market risks and opportunities to watch out for
✅ Overview of the key differences between warrants and options
✅ Tracking warrant prices using the available tools
✅ Managing and switching warrants within your portfolio

📅 29 Jan 2026 (Thu)
⏰ 8:30 pm - 10:00 pm
📌 Register: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/7217678686592/WN_acYHGE22QSO1mOpboIx0Vg

The webinar consists of 2 segments; 60-min for content delivery by both speakers & 30-min for Q&A.

Each webinar session can host up to 500 online pax. Remember to login to the webinar early to secure yourself a spot!

This webinar is brought to you by WealthFort in collaboration with RHB Investment Bank.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT AFTER THE US ATTACK ON VENEZEULA

The US is signalling to the world that unless you have a strong military, you will always be subject to regime change and theft of your country's resources.

The obvious conclusion is that the US has pivoted to the Americas in a bid to establish it sown supply of critical minerals which are found in abundance in the continent. In the process, it hopes to choke China off the supply as well. The US venture in Venezuela is just the beginning and we shall soon see more regime changes and occupation taking place. Colombia, Mexico and Cuba could be next in line. We are seeing a return to the Monroe Doctrine.

Based on this premise, we may see more countries expand militarily, thus creating regional arm race. A few may seek to acquire nuclear weapons. They will compare North Korea (with nuclear weapons) against what happened to Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan.

Countries will become increasingly nationalistic and this could hamper global trade. The ensuing arm race will push up the demand of critical minerals and nationalistic behaviour will worsen the supply chain.

China will accelerate the build out of its green energy and stock up on critical minerals (uranium, silver, copper, etc). It will hasten the electrification of its economy including its arms industry to reduce its dependence on oil. Don't be surprised if China sees the need to develop many SMRs which are quicker to build to power the grid.

Through its action, the US has lost its diplomatic premium and many countries will begin to fortify their trade amongst friendly nations in local currencies.

Some argued that Venezuela's oil can help lower inflation in the US. But oil price is already very low; yet inflation still persists in the US. Also Venezuela's oil is heavy oil and with high sulfur content. It needs to be blended with light oil to enable refining to take place. The US oil companies are just not going into Venezuela and turn on the tap. They need to replace or rehabilitate the oil infrastructure which has become decrepit due to poor maintenance.

So far, few have given thought that the population could revolt and the US will have to put boots on the ground and in the process commit hundreds of billions of dollars into the occupation that could lead to it being in a quagmire. Remember Vietnam and Afghanistan?

The US will face yet another potential shutdown on 30 January if Congress could not agree to a funding package. How much would boots on the ground cost the taxpayers this time? Meanwhile the debt bomb ticks higher at USD38.5T.

PC Wong